DraftKings NFL: Week 9 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's 10-game slate is a bit different to what we've seen recently. First of all, there are fewer games to choose from and of the 10 that we have, none have a total above 50. That's part of the reason that there isn't an obvious matchup to target for stacks. Last week we had the Dolphins-Lions matchup that was incredibly popular. We also had Tony Pollard as massive chalk and $4K Sam Ehlinger as chalk in cash games. This week there is none of that. What it means is that this slate is wide open in terms of games and players to target. Everyone is always talking about fading the chalk, but if you've been doing that recently, you've likely been losing. This week that strategy is more viable as there isn't the amount of opportunity cost we normally see. It looks like the perfect week to take some chances and deviate from whatever is going to be popular. If you like a certain spot that seems to be going overlooked, don't hesitate to go for it. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Travis Etienne vs. LV ($6,300)

Etienne has taken flight since the Jaguars traded James Robinson. He shredded the Broncos last week for 156 yards on 24 carries and he added three catches. It was his second consecutive 100-yard game after he rushed for 114 yards against the Giants the week before. Jacksonville has a pretty favorable home matchup against a Raiders team that was just shutout. The bottom line is that Etienne is just too cheap for the volume he's expected to see and projects as the best value on the slate alongside Austin Ekeler.

• WR Chris Godwin vs. LAR ($6,200)

Plain and simple, Godwin is underpriced for a player with at least six catches in five consecutive games. He's drawn double-digit targets in four of those. His salary has likely stayed down because he's yet to catch a touchdown this season, but most of that can be chalked up to luck with such a small sample. As far as the matchup is concerned, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey is expected to cover Mike Evans and the Rams have struggled against slot guys like Godwin. We may or may not see his first TD this week, but either way he's a good option for cash games.  

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen at NYJ ($8,500)

QB Kyler Murray vs. SEA ($7,400)

QB Aaron Rodgers at DET ($5,900)

QB Geno Smith at ARI ($5,800)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. LAC ($5,300)

QB Justin Fields vs. MIA ($5,300)

RB Aaron Jones at DET ($7,400)

RB Josh Jacobs at JAX ($7,300)

RB Joe Mixon vs. CAR ($6,500)

RB Travis Etienne vs. LV ($6,300)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. IND ($6,200)

RB Kenneth Walker at ARI ($6,200)

RB D'Onta Foreman at CIN ($6,000)

WR Tyreek Hill at CHI ($8,500)

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. SEA ($7,900)

WR Tee Higgins vs. CAR ($7,300)

WR DK Metcalf at ARI ($6,400)

WR Chris Godwin vs. LAR ($6,200)

WR Tyler Lockett at ARI ($6,100)

WR DJ Moore at CIN ($5,800)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. IND ($5,400)

WR Joshua Palmer at ATL ($5,100)

TE Kyle Pitts vs. LAC ($4,500)

TE Robert Tonyan at DET ($3,800)

TE Evan Engram vs. LV ($3,300)

TE Foster Moreau at JAX ($3,200), if Darren Waller is out

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. MIN ($2,400)

D/ST Carolina Panthers at CIN ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Seattle Seahawks (23.75) at Arizona Cardinals (25.75)

SEAHAWKS

This matchup will probably be the fasted paced game on the slate and it will be popular for stacks as there isn't much to like outside of it. It was a popular target in Week 6 and the total went way under as Seattle won 19-9. That score was a bit deceiving, however, as eight drives ended in five field goals and three turnovers inside the red zone. Arizona was missing DeAndre Hopkins and both of Seattle's WRs were banged up, so If you liked the potential of this matchup in Week 6, it looks even better now. Geno Smith ($5,800) continues to look like an above-average QB. He's thrown at least two TDs in six of eight games and has shown a little bit of rushing upside too. DK Metcalf ($6,400) and Tyler Lockett ($6,100) are without injury designations for what feels like the first time all season. Both caught TDs last week and Lockett dropped what would've been a second. They project as two of the better WRs on the slate in terms of point-per-dollar value and are relatively cheap for the upside they possess. Standout rookie Kenneth Walker ($6,200) is in a nice spot too if you'd rather target the running game. Seattle's offensive line has been stellar while Arizona's defense line ranks 30th in the league, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game to running backs. Walker had 23 touches for 110 scrimmage yards Week 6 and has now scored in four consecutive games. 

CARDINALS

I mentioned this should be a fast-paced matchup. The Cardinals lead the league in no-huddle rate (34 percent) and their defense can't really stop anybody, which means we could be in for a back and forth affair if the offenses are up for it. Unsurprisingly, Kyler Murray ($7,400) has looked better since DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) returned. In two games, the pair have combined 22 times on 27 targets for 262 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins projects as one of the best WRs on the slate in terms of value and his ceiling is on par with those priced above him. I don't think it's necessary to look beyond Hopkins (I prefer single-stacking Murray in general), but there are a couple other options worth considering. Rondale Moore ($5,200) is coming off his best game of the season after he caught seven of eight targets for 92 yards and a TD. Somehow Zach Ertz ($5,100) is the most expensive tight end, which emphasizes how weak the position is this week. That said, it might not take more than 80 yards and a TD to outscore the entire position and Ertz is still capable of that. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Murray + WR Hopkins + WR Metcalf

Los Angeles Chargers (26.25) at Atlanta Falcons (23.25)

CHARGERS

This matchup might not seem overly appealing at first glance, but on a slate that really lacks for good stacking targets, there are a few reasons to like this one. First, it features by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler ($8,800). Ekeler has caught a whopping 22 passes on 28 targets his last two games. Keep in mind that Mike Williams is out and Keenan Allen is still dealing with a hamstring injury that looks set to keep him sidelined, meaning Ekeler remains in line to see big volume in the passing game. Second, injuries to the top two WRs have Joshua Palmer ($5,100) standing out as one of the better cheap WRs. Palmer hasn't played since Week 6, but he's fully healthy now and caught nine of 12 targets his last time out. I'd expect similar volume again if Allen is out. DeAndre Carter ($4,300) would also be viable in stacks based on the cheap price. Third, the matchup features arguably the top two tight ends on this slate in Gerald Everett ($4,900) and Kyle Pitts ($4,500), as weird as that sounds. Everett has caught at least five passes in three of his last four and drew nine targets last time out. Again, part of his appeal hinges on Allen's status. Justin Herbert ($7,200) has been underwhelming and being without Williams and Allen surely doesn't help. Still, the Falcons have allowed 35-plus points in back-to-back games and the Chargers are coming off a bye. It could be the spot for Herbert to right the ship. 

FALCONS

Marcus Mariota ($5,300) has topped 24 fantasy points in two of his last three games. We know about his rushing upside but he excelled through the air last week, throwing for 253 yards and three scores. The Chargers defense has been a shell of what most people thought it would be this season. Mariota is quite cheap and pairing him with Ekeler makes a lot of sense. I mentioned that Kyle Pitts ($4,500) stands out at TE this week with the position being especially weak. He's coming off his best game of the season after he caught five of nine targets for 80 yards and a TD. I don't have much interest in the Falcons skill players after Pitts. Drake London ($4,900) might be worth a flyer as his salary continues to drop, but I'm unlikely to take that gamble. 

• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + RB Ekeler + WR Palmer + TE Pitts
• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Mariota + RB Ekeler + TE Pitts +/- WR Palmer

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Garrett Wilson +/- TE Dawson Knox

QB Josh Allen + WR Gabe Davis + WR Garrett Wilson +/- TE Dawson Knox

QB Kyler Murray + RB Kenneth Walker + WR DeAndre Hopkins

QB Justin Herbert + WR Joshua Palmer + WR DeAndre Carter + TE Kyle Pitts

QB Joe Burrow + WR DJ Moore + WR Tee Higgins or WR Tyler Boyd +/- TE Hayden Hurst

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Romeo Doubs + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + TE Robert Tonyan

QB Geno Smith + WR DeAndre Hopkins + WR DK Metcalf and/or WR Tyler Lockett 

QB Justin Fields + WR Tyreek Hill + WR Darnell Mooney

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Austin Ekeler at ATL ($8,800)

I mentioned above the Ekeler projects as the best value on the slate and that's really saying something based on his high salary. The Chargers use him so heavily in the passing game and that's been emphasized even more with the injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Ten-plus catches in back-to-back games is eye-popping for a running back. He'll be popular no doubt but not as much as he should be now that his salary has risen to its highest point of the season. 

• WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. SEA ($7,900)

To the surprise of some, Hopkins has looked as good as ever since returning from suspension. He's already caught a staggering 22 balls on 27 targets for 262 receiving yards through two games. Sunday's matchup against Seattle should be a good spot to continue that run as the game is expected to be fast-paced and competitive. The Seahawks defense is average at best and should the game shootout, Hopkins has a ceiling as high as any other WR on the slate. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Josh Allen ($8,500); RB Aaron Jones ($7,400); WR Tyreek Hill ($8,500)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• WR Cooper Kupp at TB ($8,900)

Part of the reason that Kupp is an appealing option this week is that his salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season. I'd say it's for a good reason as the Rams have struggled on offense and Kupp's numbers have fallen off the torrid pace that he'd set over the past season and a half. He's caught eight passes only once in his last five games. The matchup against Tampa Bay isn't great either as it features one of the lower totals on the slate, and the Bucs, despite their struggles, still boast one of the better defenses. Fading Kupp isn't so much about not liking him though as it is about wanting more exposure to some of the other options in that range such as Jefferson, Hill, Diggs and Hopkins. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Joshua Palmer at ATL ($5,100)

If Keenan Allen is out, Palmer would clearly be underpriced as the Chargers de facto No. 1 WR. He had nine catches on 12 targets in his last start, a game in which Mike Williams also played. The Falcons have allowed 35-plus points in back-to-back games and huge fantasy performances from the likes of DJ Moore, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase. Assuming Allen is out, Palmer should see 10-plus targets and have chances to catch a touchdown in what should be a soft matchup for the Chargers offense.

Honorable Mentions: RB Joe Mixon ($6,500); WR DJ Moore ($5,800); TE Kyle Pitts ($4,500)

The Bargain Bin

QB Aaron Rodgers at DET ($5,900)

QB Geno Smith at ARI ($5,800)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. LAC ($5,300)

QB Justin Fields vs. MIA ($5,300)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. LV ($5,200)

RB Deon Jackson at NE ($5,200)

WR Garrett Wilson vs BUF ($4,800)

WR Darnell Mooney vs. MIA ($4,700)

WR DeAndre Carter at ATL ($4,300)

WR Zay Jones vs. LV ($4,100)

WR Kalif Raymond vs. GB ($4,000)

WR Terrace Marshall at CIN ($3,900)

TE Robert Tonyan at DET ($3,800)

TE Tyler Higbee at TB ($3,700)

TE Hayden Hurst vs. CAR ($3,600)

TE Evan Engram vs. LV ($3,300)

TE Foster Moreau at JAX ($3,200), if Darren Waller is out

TE Brock Wright vs. GB ($2,500)

TE James Mitchell vs. GB ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Keenan Allen at ATL

I mentioned the status of Keenan Allen many times throughout this article as it represents the most important injury news on the slate. With Mike Williams already out, Allen's absence would lead to big opportunities for the remaining Chargers pass catchers. Joshua Palmer ($5,100), DeAndre Carter ($4,300) and Gerald Everett ($4,900) stand to benefit most. 

• TE Darren Waller at JAX

Waller has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he misses, Foster Moreau ($3,200) would be a popular option in cash games. 

• RB Damien Harris vs. IND 

Harris (illness) has missed practice all week. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) is a good option regardless but he'd be even more appealing with Harris out. So much so that I'd expect him to be be pretty chalky if that's the case.   

Weather

• It's going to be windy in Chicago with gusts more than 20 mph. Nothing too serious but it could have a minor impact on the passing game.