DraftKings NFL: Conference Championship Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The Games

Quarterback

• Patrick Mahomes vs. BUF ($6,000)

Multiple projection sources around the industry have the four QBs projected within about 1.5 points of each other. There's only about a one point difference between Mahomes and Josh Allen ($7,500), who's considerably more expensive. It's for these reasons that Mahomes projects as the best point-per-dollar value and will be the most popular at the position. On these smaller slates, I think it's most beneficial to talk about projections and ownership because leverage is especially important in GPPs. For cash games, however, it's better to follow the ownership most of the time. I'm perfectly comfortable rostering Mahomes with his salary down to its lowest point as the savings will come in handy at other positions. 

• Jalen Hurts vs. WAS ($6,500)

Both Hurts and Jayden Daniels ($7,000) are great options at about 2/3 the ownership of Mahomes. They have the rushing upside to succeed in any matchup. Hurts ran for 70 yards and a score last week, his 15th touchdown on the ground this season. Daniels has been incredible, leading the Commanders to consecutive upsets and looking like a bonafide star in the process. The matchup in Philadelphia is about as tough as it comes, but I wouldn't put anything past him at this point. There are four great QBs on this slate and you can credibly play whoever you want and feel good about it. 

Running Back

• Saquon Barkley vs. WAS ($8,600)

Barkley's rushing prop is 125-130 yards, depending where you look. I can't think of a spot where any player has had a higher number. He's a lock in all formats, coming off another 200-yard, two-TD game against the Rams. Aside from that, the other RB options aren't great, which cements Barkley's status. 

• James Cook at KC ($6,900)

Cook clearly projects for the second-most points at the position, but he's expensive and the matchup in KC isn't favorable. He's looked good in the postseason, and it was nice to see him catch three passes last week, but this might be a spot where I'd rather save some salary. I expect him and Austin Ekeler ($5,300) to carry roughly the same ownership and that $1,600 can go a long way. Ekeler had 88 scrimmage yards and four catches against the Lions in a game where Washington played from ahead. He'd be even more involved in trailing script. Brian Robinson ($5,600) is a leverage option in GPPs at about the half the ownership. Same goes for Kareem Hunt ($5,400) and Isiah Pacheco ($5,200). Hunt has been a bit more involved recently and will be slightly more popular. 

Wide Receiver 

• Xavier Worthy vs. BUF ($5,500)

Worthy projects best from a point-per-dollar standpoint on a slate where not many WRs project well. In fact, some of the top projection sites rank him as the only positive value. He's been Mahomes' favorite target and offers the top combination of floor and upside. I expect him to be the chalkiest WR as a result. Hollywood Brown ($4,200) will also be popular, just like he was last week. Despite being held without a catch last week, he's priced too cheaply for his role. Viable in all formats but also a good candidate to fade if you feel so inclined. 

• A.J. Brown vs. WAS ($6,800)

It's been a rough couple games for Brown but you can put some of that down to the snowy conditions in Philly last week and Jalen Hurts attempting only 20 and 21 passes the last two weeks. He has a favorable matchup against the Commanders, who play man coverage and have smaller corners. His salary has fallen to a season low and projects for the most points at the position. I'd expect that means he'll come in slightly more popular than Terry McLaurin ($6,700), who looks like a good leverage option in GPPs. McLaurin has caught a touchdown in seven of his last eight games and scored at least 17 fantasy points each time. 

Looking elsewhere, Khalil Shakir ($5,700) will be relatively popular, which isn't a surprise as he's the only Bills WR you can trust to get targets. He's drawn at least six in 12 consecutive games. That makes Amari Cooper ($4,100), Keon Coleman ($3,700) and Curtis Samuel ($3,500) options for tournaments. I much prefer to find the extra money for Dyami Brown ($4,400), who's coming off his best two games of the season and logged a season-high 83 percent of the snaps last week. Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,700) and Jamison Crowder ($3,100) can be considered for larger-field stuff, similar to the Bills WRs. 

TIght End

• Travis Kelce vs. BUF ($6,000)

"Playoff Kelce" is alive and well after seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans last week. This after eight for 84 and a score against the Steelers the week before. He's a lock for cash games and will be exceedingly popular in tournaments too. Double TE has been the popular strategy and I'd expect that to continue. Dallas Goedert ($4,500), Zach Ertz ($4,300) and Dalton Kincaid ($3,600) will garner similar ownership with Kincaid likely coming in a bit more popular than the other two given the salary savings. Noah Gray ($3,000) and Dawson Knox ($2,600) are dart throws for large field GPPs. I like rostering TEs whom I expect to play in negative game scripts. 

Defense/Special Teams

• Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS ($3,300)

The Eagles ($3,300) will be the most popular defense, if only because they're the biggest favorite and Washington has the lowest implied total. That said, I wouldn't prioritize a defense against Jayden Daniels and fading the most popular one is always a decent strategy in tournaments. This is a slate where you can play whichever one you want and feel fine about it. Nobody wanted to roster the Commanders ($2,700) last week against the high-powered Lions and they ended up being optimal after a touchdown and 17 fantasy points.