DraftKing NFL: Week 7 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The Week 7 slate features 11 games and, like usual, only a few stand out as good targets for game stacks. The Chargers-Seahawks matchup is the only with a 50-point total and will be popular because of that and the relatively cheap options on Seattle. Cincinnati has a soft matchup at home against Atlanta and people will be excited to roster Joe Burrow and his receivers. The Cowboys are in a great spot against the Lions and Dak Prescott is expected to return, which should breathe life into the passing game. The Chiefs-49ers matchup is likely to be the most competitive of the bunch, giving it the highest likelihood of a shootout. Apart from those four higher total games, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens look like a decent option at home against the Browns. So do the Raiders at home against the Texans. Josh Jacobs will be the chalk at running back, but don't overlook Derek Carr and the passing game. Whichever matchups you choose to target, remember to fade some of the chalk and construct lineups with correlation and leverage. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games 

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Josh Jacobs vs. HOU ($6,500)

Jacobs is coming off back-to-back monster games and now he gets a soft matchup at home against the Texans. Last week he had 26 touches for 203 yards and a score. The week before he had 33 touches for 175 yards and two scores. Those are massive numbers and his salary is much too cheap for that type of workload. He's going to be the most popular running back on the slate and rightfully so. That makes him a lock for cash games and a good tournament option as well. 

• WR CeeDee Lamb vs. DET ($6,800)

Lamb averages 10 targets per game and Sunday's matchup against the Lions is arguably the most favorable spot in NFL DFS. He would've projected well in this matchup even if Cooper Rush was starting but now that Dak Prescott is back, he looks like an even better option against a Detroit team that continues to give up big numbers to WRs. He's going to be popular, of course, but that's even more of a reason to roster him in cash games. He also makes plenty of sense in tournaments as part of a game stack. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Justin Herbert vs. SEA ($7,200)

QB Joe Burrow vs. ATL ($6,900)

QB Derek Carr vs. HOU ($5,900)

QB Geno Smith at LAC ($5,600)

QB Daniel Jones at JAX ($5,100)

RB Austin Ekeler vs. SEA ($8,300)

RB Leonard Fournette at CAR ($7,700)

RB Joe Mixon vs. ATL ($7,000)

RB Dameon Pierce at LV ($6,400)

RB Breece Hall at DEN ($6,200)

RB Kenneth Walker at LAC ($5,800)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. ATL ($8,200)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at DAL ($7,100)

WR CeeDee Lamb vs. DET ($6,800)

WR Tee Higgins vs. ATL ($6,400)

WR Chris Godwin at CAR ($6,300)

WR Tyler Lockett at LAC ($5,800)

TE Mark Andrews vs. CLE ($7,400)

TE Foster Moreau vs. HOU ($2,800)

TE Cade Otton at CAR ($2,700)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. NYJ ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Seattle Seahawks (22.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (28.5)

SEAHAWKS

Another week and another slate where Seattle finds itself in a high-total game that will popular for stacks. They disappointed against the Cardinals last week but still played at their fastest pace of the season and the Chargers play fast too, hence the high total. Geno Smith ($5,600) is appealing based on his cheap salary and has proven competent, topping 22 fantasy points in three of his last four. He's also rushed for at least 48 yards in two of his last three. There isn't as much opportunity cost at QB this week, which means that the cheaper options are more viable than usual. DK Metcalf ($6,600) and Tyler Lockett ($5,800) won't be quite as popular after busting as chalk last time out. Their salaries still haven't moved, though, and they project as two of the better values on the slate in point-per-dollar terms. Noah Fant ($3,100) caught six of seven targets last week, despite sharing snaps with Will Dissly ($3,000). I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Fant for leverage in large-field GPPs because there are other cheap TEs who will be unusually popular this week and Fant could outscore them with a TD. If you'd rather target the Chargers' passing game instead, consider stacking it with Kenneth Walker ($5,800). Walker had 23 touches and found the end zone last week. He projects as one of the better values at the position against a defense that has struggled stopping the run. 

CHARGERS

Los Angeles has the highest implied total on the slate, and this should be a great matchup across the board for its offense. Seattle's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in most major categories and it's especially struggled against the pass. Justin Herbert ($7,200) had his streak of 26 consecutive games with a TD pass snapped in what was an ugly game against the Broncos, but this should be a nice bounce-back spot. The same goes for Mike Williams ($7,200), who was shut down by Patrick Surtain but now faces the Seahawks' 28th-ranked pass coverage. Prior to last week, Williams had drawn double-digit targets in three of his last four, resulting in 22-plus fantasy points each time. He won't be as popular as a few others in that range, which adds to his appeal. Keep an eye on the status of Keenan Allen ($6,500). His absence has been the reason for Williams' bump in target share, and I'd expect a significant decrease when Allen returns to the lineup. As far as Allen goes, he hasn't played since Week 1 and I wouldn't feel comfortable rostering him over some of the others in that range. Joshua Palmer ($5,000) is also questionable as he recovers from a concussion. He caught nine of 12 targets last week, spelling Allen, and would look like a pretty good value option if he's in that role again. If Allen and Palmer both miss, DeAndre Carter ($3,700) and the TEs would stand to benefit most. Carter drew five targets last week while Gerald Everett ($4,000) drew seven. Again, the injury news will be important to monitor. You might just be better off rostering Austin Ekeler ($8,300) and forgetting about the rest. Ekeler has six TDs in his last three games and is coming off 10 receptions on 16 targets last week. His presence in the passing game means you can roster him with or without Herbert, by himself or as part of a stack. 

• Favorite Stack if Allen is out: QB Herbert + RB Walker + WR Williams + TE Everett
• Favorite Stack if Allen plays: QB Smith + RB Ekeler + WR Metcalf and/or WR Lockett 

Atlanta Falcons (20.25) at Cincinnati Bengals (26.75)

FALCONS

This matchup probably has the widest range of outcomes of all the games on the slate. It's the quintessential boom/bust spot. Atlanta's objective is to run the ball and slow the game. Only the Bears have ran more. It's resulted in the Falcons playing at a slow pace and throwing the third-fewest passes in the league. Not ideal for game stacks. On the other hand, only the Titans allow more passing yards per game. Atlanta doesn't have much of a pass rush and is dealing with injuries in the secondary. Cincinnati has the highest pass rate in the league since Week 2. Clearly there are credible arguments to fade this spot but maybe that tempers the popularity. I'm going to target it and hope the Bengals get out to an early lead, which should force the Falcons to pass more and play a bit faster. This stack is all about the Cincinnati, however, as there are really only two Falcons I'd be willing to roster. Drake London's ($5,400) numbers have really suffered due to Atlanta's run heavy approach, but he flashed a big ceiling when they were playing from behind against the Rams. He was the eighth overall pick and can succeed in any matchup based on talent alone. I have more interest Kyle Pitts ($4,300), however. Not only is he cheaper but the Bengals have struggled against TEs and now they're without three-down LB Logan Wilson. If Pitts is ever going to have a nice game this season, this could be the spot. 

BENGALS

As mentioned, Cincinnati's recent passing numbers have been encouraging. Since Week 2, they're throwing at the league's highest rate (71.3 percent). That should bode well against Atlanta, whose defense ranks fourth from the bottom by DVOA. Joe Burrow ($6,900) is coming off a season-high 35 fantasy points as the Bengals offense appears to have righted the ship after a rough start. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200) also had 35 fantasy points as he caught seven passes for 132 yards and two TDs. You wouldn't be surprised at all if he replicates that Sunday. Tee Higgins ($6,400), now practicing fully and without an injury designation, has a big ceiling in this spot too. He showed it a couple weeks ago against Miami with seven catches for 124 yards and a score. Tyler Boyd ($5,300) might not be seeing as many targets but we've seen him get there on efficiency many times. He caught all six of his targets last week and a flashed a ceiling against the Jets in Week 3 with 23 fantasy points. He won't be nearly as popular as Chase or Higgins, so rostering him for leverage would make sense. Hayden Hurst ($3,500) won't be popular either but he has touchdowns in two of his last three and could offer similar leverage in large-field tournaments. If you choose to fade the passing game, you should consider Joe Mixon ($7,000). He's caught at least three passes in every game and has multiple-touchdown upside any time Cincinnati are big favorites. If Burrow and Chase fail from a DFS perfective, there is a high likelihood that Mixon succeeds.  

• Favorite Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase + WR Higgins + TE Pitts

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Amari Cooper + TE Mark Andrews

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR JuJu Smith-Schuster + TE George Kittle +/- Valdes-Scantling/Hardman

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Tee Higgins + WR Drake London

QB Dak Prescott + RB D'Andre Swift or WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + WR CeeDee Lamb +/- TE Schultz

QB Tom Brady + WR Mike Evans and/or WR Chris Godwin + WR D.J. Moore + TE Cade Otton

QB Derek Carr + RB Dameon Pierce + WR Davante Adams + WR Hunter Renfrow/TE Foster Moreau

QB Derek Carr + WR Davante Adams + WR Brandin Cooks/WR Nico Collins + TE Foster Moreau

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. ATL ($8,200)

Everything lines up here for Chase. The Bengals have been passing at the highest rate in the league and face an Atlanta defense that ranks as one of the worst. He had 132 yards and two scores last week and he's the type of player who can accomplish that in just two plays. His ceiling among the highest in football and this is another spot where he can hit it. 

• RB Derrick Henry vs. IND ($8,200)

Henry cooked the Colts for 114 rushing yards in Week 4 to go along with three catches for 33 yards. His recent receiving numbers are encouraging as he's drawn 13 targets in his last three games and has a 20-plus yard reception in each. The Colts just allowed 243 rushing yards to the Jags and have given up big games to Henry in the past. Expect Tennessee to lean on him, fresh off a bye, in a favorable spot at home. 

Honorable Mentions: TE Mark Andrews ($7,400); WR Mike Williams ($7,200), if Allen is out

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce at SF

I know the 49ers are a bit banged up but they're still one of the better defenses in football and these Chiefs are expensive, especially Kelce. This matchup will draw interest, which is understandable as it has one of the higher totals, but the Chiefs are difficult to stack because they have so many options. And if Christian McCaffrey is involved for his new team, the 49ers become more difficult to stack too. I'm just more excited about other spots and this is one that I'll be off of.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Tee Higgins vs. ATL ($6,400)

I mentioned that this is a great spot for the Bengals and Ja'Marr Chase, which, of course, means it's good for Higgins too. Seemingly healthy now, he's capable of a Chase-type ceiling for $1,800 cheaper. I've been pretty heavy on the Bengals in this article, so I'll also include the same player that I mentioned last week. Kenneth Walker ($5,800) is still cheap and should be in a line for another big workload in a matchup with the Chargers that features the slate's highest total.

Honorable Mentions: WR Chris Godwin ($6,300); TE George Kittle ($5,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Derek Carr vs. HOU ($5,900)

QB Geno Smith at LAC ($5,600)

QB Daniel Jones at JAX ($5,100)

RB Kenyan Drake vs. CLE ($5,100), if Dobbins is out

WR Hunter Renfrow vs. HOU ($4,900)

WR D.J. Moore vs. TB ($4,900)

WR Mack Hollins vs. HOU ($4,600), if Renfrow is out

WR Alec Pierce at TEN ($4,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at JAX ($4,500)

WR Nico Collins at LV ($4,200)

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones at BAL ($4,100)

TE Foster Moreau vs. HOU ($2,800)

TE Cade Otton at CAR ($2,700)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. NYJ ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Keenan Allen and WR Joshua Palmer

I mentioned that the status of Allen and Palmer will be important to monitor as both are listed as questionable and the Chargers are going to be a relatively popular target for stacks. Allen's absence would be a nice boost to Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams in terms of target share and touchdown equity. If Palmer is out, DeAndre Carter likely would see an increased role and Gerald Everett could see a couple extra targets. 

• TE Darren Waller

Waller has yet to practice this week and remains questionable. If he's out, Foster Moreau ($2,800) is expected to return from a knee injury and would presumably step into the starting lineup. 

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week. Some scattered showers possible in Baltimore and Washington.