DFS Football 101: FanDuel Week 1 RB Value Picks

DFS Football 101: FanDuel Week 1 RB Value Picks

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

Week 1 of fantasy football is just days away, and after a weekend full of roster cuts we have some semblance of depth charts. With that being said, remember FanDuel salaries went live around the third week of July, so the amount of value plays in Week 1 will be the greatest of any week during the season.

You need to approach it differently because there will be some players that are highly owned, making them more of a cash game (heads up and 50/50) play because we are not worried about ownership percentage. In a tournament, you want to find players that are still value plays but not the top picks. Going against the grain or not following the herd is the best approach to try and win a tournament.

Running Backs under $7,000

Heads Up / 50-50 Plays

Ameer Abdullah, $5,900 (44th priced RB)
Abdullah should be one of the highest owned running backs in Week 1 because of the $5,900 price tag. In season long leagues he has been going off as a RB2, so you are getting him at RB4 price. Often times the best values early on FanDuel are rookies that are underpriced and move up the depth charts in the preseason. The good thing with Abdullah is that Joique Bell is not 100 percent, and he is a good pass catcher.

Doug Martin, $6,900 (25th priced RB)
Martin's price is attractive, but it is not that out of whack because he had a terrible season last year. However, he has looked great in the preseason and with a home matchup against Tennessee, it is safe to assume the Bucs will want to get him 15-to-20 carries. The Titans secondary is banged up, which could dictate Jameis Winston looking to throw more. But with a home opener and rookie quarterback, this is a game they must win, so playing it closer to the vest with a heavy dose of Martin should be the game script.

Chris Ivory, $6,400 (35th priced RB)
The addition of Chan Gailey as the offensive coordinator for the Jets really helped boost Ivory's value, as Gailey's loves to use one running back the majority of the time. Another potential help is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starting quarterback instead of Geno Smith, so teams will have to honor the passing game slightly more. With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to, this should help Ivory as defenses won't be able to just stack the box. His matchup against the Browns is strong, as they were one of the worst teams against the run last year.

Joseph Randle, $6,900 (24th priced RB)
Some of the steam has been let out of Randle with the acquisition of Christine Michael, but he is still listed as the starter for Week 1 and that is all we care about on FanDuel. The Cowboys/Giants game has one of the highest totals of the week so there should be opportunity for Randle to put up points.

Tournament Plays

Rashad Jennings, $6,600
The reason I like Jennings in a tournament is that I think his ownership rate will be low with all the other value running backs on the board. On a point per game basis, he ranked 18th last season, but people forget about him because he only played in 11 games. He has some really good games and some clunkers, but his first three were 17.6, 10.9 and 23.60 fantasy points. Even with Shane Vereen in the backfield, I still like Jennings, as Victor Cruz is not 100 percent. I think Vereen gets more of the looks that Cruz would, but Jennings will get more of the carries. With one of the highest totals of the week, Jennings is in line for a potential 20-point game.

Brandon Bolden, $6,500
This is a pure speculation play as we do not yet know who the starting running back will be for the Patriots on Thursday night, but whoever gets the start should be in line for a big game. Because the Steelers defense was so poor against the pass last year, I can see Tom Brady throwing a ton but once they get down inside the 10-yard line, Bolden could get those goal-line carries. While his yardage might only be 50-to-60 yards, the potential for multiple touchdowns is there, with LeGarrette Blount serving his one-game suspension.

Danny Woodhead, $6,000
Woodhead's matchup in Week 1 is against the Lions, who were one of the best defenses against the run last year, so why do I like him? For that exact reason. I don't see the Chargers running the ball in this game even with Ndamukong Suh gone from the Lions. They went out and signed Haloti Ngata, who is a stout run stopper to fill the gap. Woodhead's value really started to perk up as people realized that Melvin Gordon most likely will not be on the field in passing downs. Also, combine that with Philip Rivers dumping the ball off to Woodhead several times, and this could lead to a ceiling stat line of eight receptions, 60-to-70 total yards and one touchdown.

Fliers

Benny Cunningham, $5,100
If Tre Mason (hamstring) is unable to go in Week 1, that leaves Cunningham as the starting running back for the Rams. While the matchup against Seattle is not ideal, he will still get carries and the Rams defense should be able to keep this game close. Cunningham actually put up a decent game against the Seahawks in Week 7 last year, finishing with five receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown. All you need for him to hit value in a tournament is 15 points (75 totals yards, 1 TD and hopefully a few receptions).

Karlos Williams, $4,500
This play is only if LeSean McCoy is somehow ruled out for Week 1 against the Colts. If so, then getting a minimum salary running back is a must play in a tournament because it opens up $2,000-to-$3,000 in salary that you could put toward an elite wide receiver like Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. or Dez Bryant. All you need with a minimum salary RB is a floor. Williams' could be 15 carries for 60 yards and a possible TD. The Colts can be run on and they allowed 13 running backs to score at least 10 points in 2014.

Dion Lewis, $4,500
(See Brandon Bolden above). This is all about who gets named the starting running back for the Patriots. Lewis came on strong towards the end of the preseason, which put an end to the Jonas Gray-era in New England. Lewis showed flashes when he played for the Eagles, but he has never been able to establish a role. Word is that he will be the main guy in the third-down passing role that Shane Vereen had. Even if Bolden is named the starter, we could see Lewis get 4-to-5 receptions for 50 yards and a shot at a touchdown.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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