Box Score Breakdown: Week 18 Usage & 2025 ADP Estimates

Below you'll find all the usual stuff, although the discussion will be abbreviated for certain, especially those that rested a lot of starters. I'll go into more detail on usage for the playoff teams, while non-playoff teams will have 2025 ADP estimates (full PPR) in lieu of the normal volume of notes. Please keep in mind that I'm estimating what I think ADP will be, not providing my opinion on what it should be. And a lot of the estimates are more like vague guess-timates, as it's not clear right now what team a lot of players will be on next year.

The final five columns of each stat table (written in italics) show numbers for the entire season. Bold lettering denotes especially strong marks relative to positional standards. Green lettering for the weekly stats denotes considerable increases in playing time and/or usage relative to past weeks. Red lettering denotes the opposite — a decreased role relative to prior games.

If you're looking for target and air-yard shares that only include active games, you can find those updated every Tuesday on RotoWire's advanced receiving stats page. For the players that have missed games this year, we can still get a good picture of their usage/role from the stat tables below by looking at snaps/routes per game in combination with TPRR (targets per route run) and YPRR (yards per route).

Browns (10) at Ravens (35) 

Browns Personnel: 11 - 69% / 12 - 18%

55 Plays — 37 DBs — 7.2 aDOT — 18-of-34 for 183 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Jordan Akins accounted for 21 of Cleveland's 33 targets and 123 of the 183 receiving yards.
  • Jeudy got double-digit targets in six of his final nine games, and he averaged 6.9 catches for 96.3 yards on 10.3 targets in 10 games after Deshaun Watson's season-ending injury / the Amari Cooper trade. Jeudy won't see that kind of volume again next season but could land around eight targets per game as Cleveland's likely No. 1 receiver.
• Don't forget about WR Cedric Tillman, who missed the final six games of the season after suffering a concussion Week 12. He was trending down before the injury (and Jeudy trending up) but did have receiving lines of 8-81-0, 7-99-2 and 6-75-1 in the first three weeks after Watson/Cooper left the Cleveland offense. That's enough to make Tillman draftable next year.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR Jerry Jeudy: 50-65
• TE David Njoku: 110-130
• RB Jerome Ford: 110-140
• RB Nick Chubb: 125-155
• WR Cedric Tillman: 125-150
• WR Elijah Moore: 215-250

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 9% / 12 - 43% / 21 - 22% / 22 - 22%

67 Plays — 36 DBs — 9.3 aDOT — 16-of-32 for 217 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 4 scrambles

• RB Derrick Henry had just six rushing yards in the first half but then got hot after halftime. He scored TDs from 2 and 43 yards out in the fourth quarter, with the second coming around the three-minute mark when he probably should've been on the sideline to stay healthy for the playoffs.
• WR Zay Flowers suffered a knee sprain in the first half and missed the rest of the game. It's not thought to be a long-term injury, but he might miss a week or two, which is a problem for the Ravens given the timing.
  • WR Tylan Wallace took 89% of snaps after Flowers left the game. Wallace got just one target, and he won't necessarily be the regular replacement if Flowers missed the wild-card round (Nelson Agholor was a healthy scratch Week 18 after missing Weeks 16-17 in concussion protocol, but Agholor might have a decent-sized role in the playoffs).
  • WR Rashod Bateman put up 5-76-1 on a team-high eight targets to finish the regular season with 45-756-9 on just 7 targets (62.5% catch rate, 16.8 YPR, 10.5 YPT). He's perfectly capable of handling a lot of the short/intermediate work Flowers normally gets, if needed, even though the Ravens mostly use Bateman as a downfield guy.
• TE Mark Andrews had season highs for targets (eight) and air yards (124) and scored his 11th TD in the past 12 games.
  • Wild that a guy with seasons of 153, 113, 98 and 88 targets set a career high for TDs in a season with 69 targets. He and Bateman combined for 20 TDs on 100 receptions.
  • Andrews handled 75% snap share and 78% route share, right in line with his pre-2024 rates and up from 56% and 67% respectively the week before. It was his fifth time this season playing at least 78% of snaps, with each of those instances coming in the second half of the year. He may feast in the playoffs, especially if Flowers is out.

Stock ⬆️: WR Rashod Bateman, WR Tylan Wallace, TE Mark Andrews 

 Ravens Injuries 🚑: WR Zay Flowers (knee sprain)         

Bengals (19) at Steelers (17) 

Bengals Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 34%

71 Plays — 50 DBs — 4.3 aDOT — 37-of-46 for 277 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 sacks, 0 scrambles

• WR Tee Higgins aggravated his ankle and missed the end of the game. He finished the year with a career-best 25.4% TPRR and his second-best mark for YPRR (2.12, behind only 2.4 in 2021).
  • I think the Bengals will either re-sign him or use a franchise tag again, despite the persistent hamstring issues.
• WR Ja'Marr Chase locked up the receiving triple crown. He also led the NFL in routes run (683) and targets (175), while he ranked 10th in yards per route (2.50, 200-route min.) and 30th in targets per route (25.6%).
• TE Mike Gesicki closed out his one-year contract in impressive fashion, catching 18 of 22 targets for 154 yards over the final two games. He previously had five or fewer targets in every game in which both he and Higgins played. Gesicki finished with more catches and yards than in his previous two seasons combined, yet accounted for only two of Joe Burrow's 43 touchdowns.
• RB Khalil Herbert took over all of Chase Brown's role, getting 96% of snaps and all 28 RB opportunities. Herbert gained just 14 yards on seven catches and 69 yards on 20 carries but looked decent with the ground work at least against a solid defense.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR Ja'Marr Chase: 1-3
• WR Tee Higgins: 30-45
• RB Chase Brown: 30-55
• QB Joe Burrow: 50-65
• TE Mike Gesicki: 150-180
• WR Andrei Iosivas: 200-220

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 71% / 12 - 16% / 13 - 12%

58 Plays — 37 DBs — 6.7 aDOT — 17-of-31 for 148 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RB Najee Harris played well in the first half but couldn't get anything going in the second half. Harris did, however, get far more snaps and routes than Jaylen Warren, which was a reversal from recent weeks.
  • The Steelers are 10-point underdogs at Baltimore for the wild-card round -- a situation that seemingly favors Warren, but that's apparently no lock even if the Ravens jump out to a lead as many expect.
• WR George Pickens had an awful night, dropping a couple passes and failing to make a couple other players that maybe weren't drops but are balls he often catches.
• TE Pat Freiermuth continued his hot finish to the regular season but then dropped a fourth-down pass on the final drive to end the game. His two best fantasy scores of the season came against Cincinnati, and his two best target totals (11, 8) came in the past two weeks.
  • Freiermuth finished the regular season with 10.1 PPR points per game, slightly ahead of his averages from 2021 (9.5) and 2922 (9.3). His 8.4 YPT and 83.3% catch rate are career highs, and the seven TDs tie his rookie-year mark.
• TE Darnell Washington had an incomplete fade route into the end zone wiped out by a penalty. He got just three official targets over the final six weeks of the season, but the Steelers have thrown him those end-zone fades three or four times, making him a dark-horse candidate to hit paydirt Saturday at Baltimore.
• WR Calvin Austin took 88% of snaps in 11 personnel and 0% in 12 personnel. He was a regular in both groupings for a couple of the games Pickens missed, but otherwise Austin has only played in three-wide sets, which limits his snap share (and to a lesser extent route share) in positive/neutral game script.

Stock ⬆️: TE Pat Freiermuth

Stock ⬇️: WR Calvin Austin

 Bengals Injuries 🚑: WR Tee Higgins (ankle) 

 Steelers Injuries 🚑: RG Mason McCormick (hand)

Panthers (44) at Falcons (38) - OT

Panthers Personnel: 11 - 74% / 12 - 6% / 6OL - 14%

65 Plays — 39 DBs — 8.3 aDOT — 26-of-35 for 270 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 4 scrambles

• RB Miles Sanders came back from IR to close out the season as Carolina's lead back for a game. He has two seasons but no guaranteed money remaining on his contract, which means he'll be released/traded/renegotiated this offseason.
• QB Bryce Young threw for three TDs and ran in two more, giving him four straight games with multiple TDs to close out the season. 
  • Young completed 65.5% of his passes for 7.16 YPA over the final four weeks, with eight passing TDs, two INTs, four rushing TDs and 112 rushing yards. However, he also took 14 sacks and fumbled four times (two lost), so not all of his prior issues were fixed.
  • Looking at a larger sample... Young played 10 games after regaining the starting job and completed 61.8% of passes for 6.60 YPA, with 15 TDs, six INTs, five rushing TDs and 22 sacks. The touchdown numbers are inflated relative to everything else, but even if you ignore those he's clearly made a ton of progress. While I'm still not sold on Young as a franchise QB, he's at least proven to be a competent, mid/low-end starter. And he's still only 23, so there could be more progress ahead.
• WRs Xavier Legette and David Moore rotated, while Jalen Coker and Adam Thielen were full-time players.
  • Coker closed out his rookie season by leading the team in targets (seven), receiving yards (62) and routes run (31), plus he completed a pass on a trick play. His year-end mark of 1.87 YPRR was inflated by an 83-yard TD on a blown coverage, but his numbers are decent even without that play... excellent by rookie UDFA standards. Keep Coker in mind as a late-round pick next year. He was better than Legette, who may have been somewhat limited by a wrist injury in recent weeks (he said a couple weeks ago that he might get surgery after the season).

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Chuba Hubbard: 35-50
• WR Adam Thielen: 90-120
• QB Bryce Young: 100-125 
• WR Xavier Legette: 105-130 
• WR Jalen Coker: 105-140
• TE Ja'Tavion Sanders: 145-175
• RB Miles Sanders: 200-225
• RB Jonathon Brooks: 225-250

Falcons Personnel: 11 - 90% / 12 - 1%

77 Plays — 40 DBs — 11.5 aDOT — 21-of-38 for 312 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• RB Bijan Robinson ran for a career high 170 yards and scored exactly two rushing TDs for a third straight game, finishing the season with 304-1,456-14 rushing and 61-431-1 receiving. He's locked in as a first-round fantasy pick for 2025 and may even get consideration at 1.01.
• QB Michael Penix was mostly sharp, playing much better than he had the week before (albeit with the same result for his team... an OT loss). The low completion percentage is deceptive because his aDOT (11.5) was so deep and the Falcons dropped five passes.
  • Penix's willingness to throw deep and intermediate passes is promising for fantasy. Not as promising? Two scrambles on 78 dropbacks the past two weeks, although one of those went for a touchdown. 
• WR Drake London put up 10-187-2 and 7-106-0 in Penix's two starts to finish the year with a 100-1,271-9 receiving line, i.e., Top 10 in each major category. 
  • Penix's sky-high aDOTs of 12.6 and 11.5 in his two starts allowed London to have two of his top three games of the year for both air yards and receiving yards. The sample isn't big enough for definitive judgments on Penix's future effectiveness, but we at least know he's aggressive throwing the ball.
    • Penix attempted 15.2% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield this year, compared to 9.3% for Kirk Cousins.
    • Penix attempted 29.5% of his passes 10-10 yards downfield, compared to 25.2% for Kirk Cousins.
    • In addition to pushing the ball downfield, Penix had just two scrambles and three sacks on 78 dropbacks the past two weeks, which is also highly promising for pass-catcher production. There won't be a discount on London given his massive finish to the season, but Darnell Mooney could be a bargain again after missing Sunday's game with a shoulder injury.

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Bijan Robinson: 1-4
• WR Drake London: 15-25
• WR Darnell Mooney: 90-120
• QB Michael Penix: 100-130
• RB Tyler Allgeier: 120-140
• TE Kyle Pitts: 130-150
• WR Ray-Ray McCloud: 200-225

Stock ⬆️: QB Bryce Young, WR Jalen Coker  /   QB Michael Penix, WR Drake London

 Panthers Injuries 🚑: DT A'Shawn Robinson (calf), CB Akayleb Evans (ribs)   

 Falcons Injuries 🚑: CB Mike Hughes (shoulder)

Commanders (23) at Cowboys (19) 

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 76% / 12 - 13%

55 Plays — 39 DBs — 10.2 aDOT — 21-of-31 for 199 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 6 sacks, 2 scrambles

• QB Jayden Daniels was pulled at halftime and replaced by Marcus Mariota, who eventually led a game-winning drive to lock up the No. 6 seed (although Green Bay's simultaneous loss accomplished the same thing).
  • Dan Quinn said after the game that Daniels was bothered by a sore leg. It sounds like something the rookie would've played through in a more important game, but it's worth noting that he was removed while many other key players (like WR Terry McLaurin) stayed in through the end of the game.
• RB Austin Ekeler returned from IR and split backfield work with Brian Robinson, playing 62% of snaps and taking five of 11 RB opportunities. The Commanders fell behind and went pass-heavy.
  • Ekeler finishes the regular season with 2.11 yards per route, the top mark among RBs, albeit on a small sample due to both injuries and sharing snaps with other players.
• RBs Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols were non-factors, playing just one snap apiece without any touches. They may not have roles in the playoffs, even though both arguably have been better than Robinson of late.
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus got 69% of snaps and 70% route share even with Dyami Brown back from a hamstring injury.
  • Brown, meanwhile, got 45% snap share and 41% route share, about the same as slot man Jamison Crowder (and slightly more than Luke McCaffrey).
  • Zaccheaus looks to be Washington's No. 2 WR for the playoffs, unless maybe Noah Brown (kidney) returns from IR... and even then Zaccheaus might be ahead of him at this point.

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 24% / 21 - 11%

75 Plays — 37 DBs — 8.2 aDOT — 20-of-34 for 244 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• QB Trey Lance missed some throws but mostly played pretty well, appearing salvageable as a backup QB if nothing else.
• RB Deuce Vaughn got his first snaps since mid-November and took six carries for 37 yards. Rico Dowdle still got most of the work, with 65% snap share and 25 of 34 RB opportunities (plus his second rushing TD of the season).

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR CeeDee Lamb: 5-8
• RB Rico Dowdle: 80-120
• TE Jake Ferguson: 100-125
• QB Dak Prescott: 110-130
• WR Jalen Tolbert: 160-190 
• WR KaVontae Turpin: 170-200
• WR Brandin Cooks: 190-225
• QB Trey Lance: 220-260

Stock ⬆️: RB Austin Ekeler  /   QB Trey Lance

Stock ⬇️: QB Cooper Rush

 Commanders Injuries 🚑: QB Jayden Daniels (sore leg)    

Bears (24) at Packers (22) 

Bears Personnel: 11 - 84% / 12 - 11%

57 Plays — 33 DBs — 2.6 aDOT — 21-of-30 for 148 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 2 scrambles

• RB D'Andre Swift took 77% of snaps and 22 of 29 RB opportunities, with 20 of the 22 carries but just two of the seven targets.
  • RB Roschon Johnson got a lot of the playing time in obvious passing situations, but his five targets were a fluke, coming on 10 routes (six fewer than Swift got).
• WR DJ Moore lost a fumble late in the fourth quarter and nearly cost Chicago the game, but he otherwise continued his hot streak, recording his eighth consecutive game with at least six catches and 10.4 PPR points.
  • Moore's streak coincides with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator (and later Matt Eberflus as head coach). Brown used DJM on far more quick passes, resulting in a career-high 98 receptions and career-low 7.4 aDOT, which was Moore's first time with an aDOT below 10.5 since his rookie year.
    • Moore's aDOT was 5.4 after Brown took over the offense, which is on the low end... for a tight end. Moore averaged just 9.8 yards per catch but caught 78% of his targets, accounting for 32% of the team's receiving yards and 29% of the targets.
• WR Rome Odunze accounted for 20% of the targets under Brown, catching 51% of them at a 13.0 ADOT (26-320-2 on 51 targets).
  • Keenan Allen got 29% of the targets at a 9.3 aDOT, catching 60% of them (44-503-5 on 73 targets). It was largely volume-based production in trailing situations against conservative coverages, but Allen at least proved he's not totally washed.
  • TE Cole Kmet somehow got just 21 targets on 241 routes after Brown took over, good for an 8.7% target rate. The good news for him is that Brown probably won't be back. In fact, the Bears probably will have an entirely new coaching staff. And Allen probably will be gone as well.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR DJ Moore: 50-75
• WR Rome Odunze: 60-90
• RB D'Andre Swift: 70-100
• WR Keenan Allen: 80-120
• QB Caleb Williams: 125-150
• TE Cole Kmet: 150-180
• RB Roschon Johnson: 160-190

Packers Personnel: 11 - 66% / 12 - 25%

61 Plays — 28 DBs — 7.9 aDOT — 17-of-25 for 205 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 0 scrambles

• QB Jordan Love injured his elbow in the first half and missed the rest of the game. He's reportedly expected to be fine for the wild-card round, with his "funny bone" injury likened to the ones suffered recently by Josh Allen and Brock Purdy.
  • Matt LaFleur said afterward that Love could have returned to the game.
• WR Christian Watson suffered a non-contact injury to the same knee that caused him to miss Week 17. LaFleur said he's "not super confident" about Watson's situation.
  • WR Dontayvion Wicks thus figures to have a top-three role again for the playoffs, joining Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs (who missed Week 18 with an illness).
  • Wicks led the WRs with 77% snap share after Watson's departure, followed closely by Jayden Reed (75%) and Malik Heath (71%), both of whom were more productive (Wicks actually had three of his targets and 38 of his 49 yards before Watson's departure).
• RB Josh Jacobs took 71% of snaps and seven of 11 RB opportunities through the first 19 minutes of the game, then didn't play at all after his nine-yard TD early in the second quarter.
  • Emanuel Wilson took 58% of snaps and 12 of 20 RB opportunities from that point forward, recording 62 total yards and a TD.
    • Chris Brooks got eight of 20 opportunities (all carries) for 59 yards.

Stock ⬆️: WR Dontayvion Wicks

Stock ⬇️: WR Keenan Allen, TE Cole Kmet

 Bears Injuries 🚑: CB Jaylon Johnson (quad)   

 Packers Injuries 🚑: QB Jordan Love (elbow), WR Christian Watson (knee)

Jaguars (23) at Colts (26) 

Jaguars Personnel: 11 - 66% / 12 - 19%

68 Plays — 36 DBs — 8.2 aDOT — 20-of-32 for 225 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RBs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby split the rushing work again, with D'Ernest Johnson getting a few passing-down snaps.
• TE Brenton Strange's target rate dropped over the final few games, but he at least made the most of his chances Sunday, catching each of four targets for 60 yards (on 27 routes).
  • Evan Engram (shoulder) has one year remaining on his contract, with no guaranteed money. He's recovering from mid-December surgery on his labrum.
• Following a Week 12 bye, WR Brian Thomas finished the season with six straight games of at least 10 targets, 16.6 PPR points and 76 yards, catching 64.3% of his targets at an 11.1 aDOT while drawing targets on 33.7% of his routes.
  • It's borderline incredible that he had a 64.3% catch rate and 8.5 YPT while getting enormous volume as the only real threat in an offense with Mac Jones at QB. Defenses knew where the ball was going, and knew a bad QB was throwing it, yet struggled to stop Jones anyway. It admittedly helped to face some struggling defenses in that time, but, still.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR Brian Thomas: 7-12
• WR Christian Kirk: 80-110
• RB Travis Etienne: 90-120
• TE Evan Engram: 95-125
• RB Tank Bigsby: 110-150
• QB Trevor Lawrence: 130-160
• TE Brenton Strange: 130-160
• WR Gabe Davis: 155-185
• WR Parker Washington: 190-225

Colts Personnel: 11 - 81% / 12 - 18%

77 Plays — 43 DBs — 9.4 aDOT — 23-of-40 for 264 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 0 scrambles

• RB Jonathan Taylor averaged 29.3 carries for 156.8 yards and 1.5 TDs (5.36 YPC) over the final four weeks, finishing the season with 1,431 rushing yards despite missing three games. He'll likely be a second-round pick for fantasy next season, and he won't slip lower than the third round even if confidence in the Colts offense remains low. 
• WRs Josh Downs, Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce all finished out the year with solid receiving lines against a terrible Jacksonville defense.

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Jonathan Taylor: 18-28
• WR Josh Downs: 75-100
• WR Michael Pittman: 80-110
• QB Anthony Richardson: 110-140
• WR Adonai Mitchell: 120-150
• WR Alec Pierce: 130-160

Stock ⬆️: TE Brenton Strange  /   RB Jonathan Taylor

Stock ⬇️:  

 Jaguars Injuries 🚑: S Andre Cisco (groin)

 Colts Injuries 🚑: CB Julius Brents (groin), OT Matt Goncalves (head) 

Bills (16) at Patriots (23) 

Bills Personnel: 11 - 57% / 12 - 0% / 21 - 34%

65 Plays — 33 DBs — 7.5 aDOT — 18-of-32 for 129 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

• The Bills rested a lot of starters, but RB James Cook took a bunch of carries early in the game to get to 1,000 yards and then returned in the third quarter to punch in a short TD (his 16th rushing score of the year, a franchise record).
• WR Khalil Shakir was rested. Amari Cooper was away from the team for personal reasons (and remained away Monday). Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins, meanwhile, played nearly every snap, with Coleman seeing a bunch of deep looks and finishing with 2-31-0 on 10 targets and 196 air yards.
  • The WR snaps/routes are a bit difficult to predict for the playoffs, apart from Shakir's steady role in the slot. Cooper hasn't been a full-time player at any point since joining the Bills, while Coleman has at various points this year.

Patriots Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 25%

61 Plays — 34 DBs — 10.2 aDOT — 22-of-30 for 241 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 3 scrambles

• QB Drake Maye was pulled after one drive in favor of Joe Milton, who played shockingly well for a sixth-round rookie who is supposed to be a raw/unpolished prospect (even though he'll turn 25 in March).
  • It might've been enough to solicit offers for a Day 2 pick, given that Milton has a famously strong arm and 4.56 speed at 6-5, 246. If not, the Patriots can lock in the top two spots on their QB depth chart for the next 3-4 years (on rookie contracts).
• WR Kayshon Boutte had another big game, putting up 7-117-1 before exiting late in the second half for concussion protocol. His late-season surge gives him a decent shot to keep a starting job next year, despite uneven performances throughout the season. What the Patriots really need is a better offensive line... and then a true No. 1 receiver to put alongside Boutte, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry. 
  • They probably fell out of Travis Hunter range (he might just be a CB anyway) but could still get Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan (and possibly add a pick by trading down a few spots) or Missouri's Luther Burden (possibly a mid-R1 guys) or OSU's Emeka Egbuka. Or if they decide to go with defense/OL help in the first round, the Pats could try to trade for a WR or sign Tee Higgins.
    • The other impending FAs at WR don't seem like great fits, in part because they'd overlap with Douglas and in part because of age, e.g., Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson. I wouldn't hate Amari Cooper as a backup plan, or Brandin Cooks as a fancy No. 4 WR.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson was active but didn't play. He's signed to an extension through 2028, with a full salary guaranteed in 2025 and most of his salary guaranteed in 2026, i.e., the Patriots have incentive to keep using him even after a disappointing, fumble-laden campaign.
  • Stevenson is a powerful runner and competent pass catcher who dealt with some of the worst blocking in the league the past two years. He's a reasonable rebound candidate for 2025 and could be a nice value in fantasy drafts if the Patriots are aggressive in addressing their OL deficiencies. On the other hand, he didn't play well this year, even accounting for the tough circumstances.

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 85-115
• QB Drake Maye: 90-120
• WR Kayshon Boutte: 125-160
• WR DeMario Douglas: 135-170
• TE Hunter Henry: 140-170
• RB Antonio Gibson: 180-220
• QB Joe Milton: 225-250
• TE Austin Hooper: 225-250

Stock ⬆️: QB Joe Milton, WR Kayshon Boutte

Stock ⬇️:  WR Javon Baker

 Patriots Injuries 🚑: WR Kayshon Boutte (head), S Marte Mapu (neck) 

Giants (13) at Eagles (20) 

Giants Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 22%

54 Plays — 29 DBs — 3.5 aDOT — 22-of-29 for 138 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 sacks, 0 scrambles

• This is probably exactly what most Giants fans wanted. They lost the game while getting solid performances from building blocks Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy.
  • Nabers likely will be taken late in the first round or early in the second round for fantasy next year, at least in PPR leagues. The Giants have the No. 3 overall pick and are sitting behind two QB-needy teams, so there's no guarantee of getting Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward even if the front office wants them. Still, I have a feeling the Giants will come away with one of those two guys.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR Malik Nabers: 10-18
• RB Tyrone Tracy: 50-70
• WR Wan'Dale Robinson: 130-160
• RB Devin Singletary: 135-170
• TE Theo Johnson: 165-200
• WR Darius Slayton: 200-225

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 26% / 6OL - 10%

68 Plays — 43 DBs — 6.5 aDOT — 27-of-41 for 269 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

• TE Dallas Goedert returned from IR and made an impressive cameo, catching four of six targets for 55 yards on nine routes. He should be back to his every-down role for the wild-card round.
• WR Jahan Dotson put up 7-94-0 while leading the team in targets (11) and air yards (114). He probably won't see that many targets throughout the entire playoffs even if the Eagles reach the Super Bowl, but it was at least a decent sign his career isn't totally buried and he can hang around as a third/fourth WR. He'll be 25 next season, so there's still some chance for development, although not much chance to climb the depth chart if he stays in Philly for the final year of his rookie contract.

Stock ⬆️: TE Dallas Goedert, QB Tanner McKee

Stock ⬇️: QB Drew Lock

 Giants Injuries 🚑: LB Ty Summers (stinger)

Saints (19) at Buccaneers (27) 

Saints Personnel: 11 - 27% / 12 - 38% / 22 - 14% / 13 - 11%

63 Plays — 45 DBs — 8.3 aDOT — 26-of-42 for 240 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• TE Foster Moreau suffered a severe knee injury and is scheduled for surgery. He's scheduled for unrestricted free agency.
• This was QB Spencer Rattler's best performance yet, but probably not enough to make a real case for the starting job next year.

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Alvin Kamara: 40-60
• WR Chris Olave: 50-75
• WR Rashid Shaheed: 65-90
• RB Kendre Miller: 150-185
• QB Derek Carr: 180-220
• TE Juwan Johnson: 190-230
• WR Bub Means: 225-260

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 80% / 12 - 13%

64 Plays — 40 DBs — 8.3 aDOT — 21-of-32 for 221 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack, 7 scrambles

• RB Bucky Irving took 70% of snaps and 24 of 26 RB opportunities, including 19 of the 21 carries. He ran three times as many routes as Rachaad White, who finished without a carry or target on 27% snap share.
  • White has just four opportunities over the past two weeks that weren't in garbage time, and only seven in total.
• TEs Payne Durham and Devin Culp split work again, filling in for Cade Otton (knee), whose availability for the playoffs is unclear.
  • Durham  got 55% route share to Cup's 33%, but Culp took three-fourths of the snaps on third down, mostly playing over Durham in clear passing situations. Durham has two TDs the past two weeks, but on just five targets, with Culp getting six targets and over the same stretch and catching five of them for 88 yards.
    • Culp's success could also be a problem next year for Otton, who is a solid starter but not exactly a standout in passing situations. Culp is an undersized TE (6-4, 237) who ran a 4.47 40 after putting up only 208-266 yards each of his final three seasons at Washington (while sharing the field with McMillan, Odunze, Polk, etc.)
• WR Jalen McMillan is up to five straight games with 4-5 catches, 5-7 targets, 51-75 receiving yards and 1-2 TDs.
• WR Sterling Shepard was back from a hamstring injury to handle the No. 3 WR role but got just two targets on 24 routes.

Stock ⬆️: WR Jalen McMillan

Stock ⬇️: RB Rachaad White

 Saints Injuries 🚑: TE Foster Moreau (knee), S Tyrann Mathieu (concussion)   

Texans (23) at Titans (24) 

Texans Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 28%

58 Plays — 30 DBs — 6.6 aDOT — 18-of-28 for 178 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• QB C.J. Stroud played just one series, marching the team 69 yards for a touchdown with the ball going to WR Nico Collins or RB Joe Mixon on every play besides one pass to TE Dalton Schultz.
  • Collins then played a couple snaps on the next drive and added another catch, ultimately finishing with 5-38-1 on eight routes.
• WR John Metchie played a lot with both the starters and the backups but then left the game early after a hard hit concussed him. He took three-fourths of his snaps in the slot before exiting, after getting about three-fourths there the week before.
  • If healthy, Metchie likely will be Houston's slot receiver in the playoffs. What's less clear is who will get most of the perimeter snaps opposite Collins.
• WR Diontae Johnson caught two passes for 12 yards on the second drive of the game, then added two incomplete targets. He finished at 34% snap share and 52% route share, getting most of his playing time in the second and third quarters but also playing some Q1 and Q4.

Titans Personnel: 11 - 63% / 12 - 23% / 13 - 13%

60 Plays — 30 DBs — 10.4 aDOT — 16-of-26 for 245 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RB Tony Pollard took 22 of 25 RB opportunities (all carries) on 75% snap share with Tyjae Spears inactive due to his second concussion of the season.
• TE Chig Okonkwo played only a few snaps before exiting with an abdomen injury. He otherwise finished the season strong, making this three times in three years with a big December/January after not doing much for the first three months of the campaign.
• WR Calvin Ridley got to 1,000 yards for the third time, finishing with 64-1,017-4 on 120 targets (53.3% catch rate, 15.9 YPR, 8.5 YPT).
  • Ridley's 15.9 yards per catch and 15.3 aDOT both were career highs, and he recently said he's happy in the Titans organization despite all the losing. He's 30 years old and not quite the same player we saw in Atlanta, but Ridley can still play and now figures to be paired with a good QB prospect.
• One of the curiosities of the season was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who had five more TDs (9) than Ridley on exactly half as many catches (32) and less than half his yardage (497).
  • NWI is scheduled for unrestricted free agency and will turn 28 in March. Tyler Boyd also is a free agent, leaving the Titans with minimal experience at WR behind Ridley. 
  • WR Treylon Burks had ACL surgery in October/November, addressing an issue that wasn't a complete tear. He may get one last shot next summer to compete for a top-three role, or at least for the No. 4 job.
• The Titans have the No. 1 overall pick and likely will use it on Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.

2025 ADP Estimates

• WR Calvin Ridley: 60-80
• RB Tony Pollard: 75-100
• RB Tyjae Spears: 90-120
• TE Chig Okonkwo: 150-180
• WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 170-200
• WR Treylon Burks: 230-260
• TE Josh Whyle: 240-280

Stock ⬇️: QBs Will Levis, Mason Rudolph

 Texans Injuries 🚑: WR John Metchie (concussion)

 Titans Injuries 🚑: TE Chig Okonkwo (abdomen)

49ers (24) at Cardinals (47) 

49ers Personnel: 11 - 60% / 12 - 8% / 21 - 27%

73 Plays — 50 DBs — 7.1 aDOT — 29-of-43 for 326 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 5 scrambles

• RB Isaac Guerendo suffered MCL and ankle sprains in the first quarter. He was carted to the locker room, clearly in significant pain, and it might be something that requires offseason surgery.
  • Patrick Taylor took over as the lead back and layed nearly every snap the rest of the game, taking 18 touches for 121 yards.
• WR Jauan Jennings was on track to reach 1,000 yards before getting ejected for fighting Cardinals CB Sean Murphy-Bunting in the second quarter.
  • It'll be an interesting offseason for San Francisco's WR room, with Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk (knee), Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall seemingly all deserving of top-three roles. Samuel and Jennings both have just one season remaining on their contracts, and Aiyuk is rehabbing an ACL tear. The conventional wisdom suggests Samuel will be traded and the other three kept around, but it isn't out of the question to roster all four of them again.
• TE George Kittle played through a hamstring injury but didn't get his usual every-down workload, instead taking 30% of snaps. He finishes the year with an incredible 2.88 yards per route run, which is the fifth best mark by a tight end the past 10 years (three of the seasons above that belong to him, with Mark Andrews in 2019 being the other).

2025 ADP Estimates

• RB Christian McCaffrey: 18-30
• 0TE George Kittle: 45-60
• WR Brandon Aiyuk: 60-90
• WR Jauan Jennings: 60-90
• WR Deebo Samuel: 70-110
• WR Ricky Pearsall: 80-120
• QB Brock Purdy: 90-120
• RB Isaac Guerendo: 125-160
• RB Jordan Mason: 125-160

Cardinals Personnel: 11 - 34% / 12 - 47% / 13 - 16%

62 Plays — 36 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 25-of-35 for 242 yards — 4 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Michael Carter dominated Arizona's backfield work again, getting 77% of snaps and 21 of 25 opportunities for 59 yards and a TD.
  • RB DeeJay Dallas' lone carry was on a fake punt. Tony Jones got all four of his carries on the final drive, finishing things off with a 46-yard TD.
• WR Marvin Harrison finished his uneven rookie year on a high note, scoring a 12-yard TD in the fourth quarter and finishing second on the team with six targets.
  • He finishes with 62-885-8, which is good by most rookie standards, but not so much for a No. 4 overall pick who typically was drafted in the second round for fantasy and then got comfortably outproduced by fellow first-round picks Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. And it took Harrison 116 targets to accumulate his stats, despite having games of 4-130-2 on eight targets and 6-111-1 on seven targets. 
• WR Zay Jones filled in for Michael Wilson, who was inactive for the first time all season due to a hamstring injury. Jones caught four of five targets for 46 yards, showing that he can still play some and may fit in as No. 3/4 receiver still.
• TE Trey McBride's 147 targets this season were the sixth most by any tight end the past 10 years, with his 111 receptions being fourth most.

2025 ADP Estimates

• TE Trey McBride: 18-30
• WR Marvin Harrison: 35-50
• RB James Conner: 50-70
• QB Kyler Murray: 75-100
• RB Trey Benson: 120-150
• RB Michael Carter: 210-240
• WR Michael Wilson: 210-240
• WR Zay Jones: 220-50
• WR Greg Dortch: 220-250
• RB Emari Demercado: 225-275

Stock ⬆️: WR Ricky Pearsall

 49ers Injuries 🚑: RB Isaac Guerendo (MCL/ankle), S Malik Mustapha (knee), S Talanoa Hufanga (head), WR Chris Conley elbow)

 Cardinals Injuries 🚑: CB Max Melton (wrist)

Chiefs (0) at Broncos (38) 

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 82% / 12 - 0% / 6OL - 12%

33 Plays — 23 DBs — 6.5 aDOT — 10-of-17 for 98 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 5 sacks, 1 scramble

• The Chiefs ran just 33 plays, with both teams playing at a slow pace and Denver completely dominating. It's the first time I can remember seeing a team run fewer than 40 plays in a game, and the cumulative total of 105 plays between the teams is also the lowest number I can remember.

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 40% / 12 - 13% / 22 - 24%

72 Plays — 33 DBs — 5.2 aDOT — 26-of-29 for 321 yards — 4 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 4 scrambles

• QB Bo Nix completed his first 17 passes of the game and finished his rookie regular season with a 29:12 TD:INT, including 28:8 after Week 4.
  • Nix has scored at least 14 fantasy points in every game since Week 4, completing 68.3% of his passes for 7.26 YPA while averaging 2.2 passing TDs, 0.6 INTs, 1.5 sacks, 24.6 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing TDs per game.
    • Those are near-elite efficiency numbers. Perhaps most impressive of all is having just eight turnovers and 20 sacks on nearly 500 dropbacks. It's one of the better rookie seasons by a QB, even considering that Nix got a lot of help from an O-line that excels at pass blocking.
• RB Jaleel McLaughlin took 50% of snaps and 16 of 25 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter, including 14 of the 19 carries.
  • Audric Estime took 10 of his 12 carries in the fourth quarter of the blowout. Eight of his carries, including a one-yard TD, occurred after McLaughlin's final snap/touch of the game.
  • Javonte Williams was mostly on the field for pass plays again. He got just nine carries but 17 targets over the final three weeks of the regular season, including an 11-target outing Week 16 against the Chargers.
• WR Marvin Mims scored two more TDs, but his snap/route shares actually were slightly down compared to the previous two games (around 50%) rather than continuing to rise.
  • Nitpicking maybe, but you'd like to see the excellent performance lead to more playing time. It's nice that he's getting all these screens and backfield snaps... just know that there's huge weekly bust risk since he's not actually a full-time WR yet. That should be coming, of course, although perhaps next year rather than next week. TBD.
  • Mims drew targets on 18 of 52 routes (34.6%) over the final three weeks of the season, catching 16 of those for 216 yards and four TDs. His aDOT was just 6.1, with 11 of those 18 targets coming behind the line of scrimmage (and three traveling 20+ yards downfield).
• WR Courtland Sutton has 10 straight games with at least seven targets and 10 PPR points, including eight instances of 14.8+ PPR points. He didn't quite beat his 2019 career high for receiving yards (1,112), but he finished with career highs in nearly every other key counting category, including targets, catches and TDs. 
  • From Week 8 onward, Sutton had a 26.7% target rate and caught 68.2% of his targets at a 13.1 aDOT, producing 2.4 yards per route.
  • Before Week 8, Sutton had a 23.0% target rate and caught 44.7% of his targets at a 13.4 aDOT, producing 1.4 yards per route. The usage/role didn't change much, but he and Bo Nix both played way better after starting the season slow.
  • Sutton got a league-high 18 targets in the end zone this season, slightly ahead of Justin Jefferson (17), Ja'Marr Chase (16), Mike Evans (16) and Marvin Harrison (16). Sutton's eight catches in the end zone were third most, behind only Terry McLaurin (10-for-14) and Mark Andrews (9-for-9).

Stock ⬆️: RB Jaleel McLaughlin, WR Marvin Mims

 Chiefs Injuries 🚑: CB Chamarri Conner (shoulder)

Chargers (34) at Raiders (20) 

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 7% / 21 - 15% / 22 - 11%

72 Plays — 38 DBs — 8.1 aDOT — 28-of-36 for 346 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• RB J.K. Dobbins took 67% of snaps and 21 of 33 RB opportunities, with the rest going to Hassan Haskins, who got most of his touches in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were up big.
  • Haskins got eight of his 12 carries, including a two-yard TD, on the Chargers' final non-kneeldown drive.
  • Before that final drive, Dobbins took 77% of snaps and 19 of 23 RB opportunities, including two of the three goal-line carries (both unsuccessful).
    • The Chargers reached the one-yard line on their first drive of the second half. Dobbins was stuffed on first down. Haskins was stuffed on second down. Dobbins was stuffed again on third down. And then they kicked a chip shot on fourth down. Haskins has taken goal-line work at times this season, but Dobbins has also taken a decent chunk of it, and Gus Edwards (ankle) might also be a candidate if he returns healthy for the playoffs.
  • Kimani Vidal was the odd man out, playing just one snap.
• WR Quentin Johnston easily had career highs for targets (14), catches (13) and yards (186). He scored eight TDs this season, but he'd topped 51 yards just once previously, when he put up 4-118-1 on the Browns on Nov. 3.
  • Johnston also had just one prior game with more than eight targets, Week 15 against Tampa Bay (5-45-1 on 10 targets). He's shown plenty of signs this season of not being a total bust, but this was the first game in which it appeared he might fully live up to his status as a first-round pick.
• TE Will Dissly put up 5-42-1 on six targets while taking 58% of snaps and 70% route share. All of those marks represent a return to his pre-injury role, after getting only three targets and 38% route share the week before against New England in his first game back from a shoulder injury.

Raiders Personnel: 11 - 19% / 12 - 65% / 13 - 17%

48 Plays — 37 DBs — 9.0 aDOT — 25-of-36 for 225 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble