Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 2

Last week was a mixed bag. While I went 10-6 and won my best bet (Colts), I went 2-3 in the Super Contest, thanks to a closing-seconds backdoor cover by the Redskins and idiotically picking the Giants +7. (I blame Dalton Del Don for foisting the Panthers on us.)

This week, I especially like the Saints, Raiders and Bears. I'll add my best bet and Super Contest picks in the comments. 

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers +6.5 at Panthers

The Panthers turned it over too many times against the Rams last week, but they're probably an above average team, and I expect them to bounce back at home against the Buccaneers on a short week. I actually made this line 6.5, so I could have gone either way, but I have a Panthers hunch. Lay the wood. 

Panthers 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Colts +3 at Titans

This is where I set the line too. I'm a little concerned Derrick Henry will bludgeon the Colts on the ground as Indy couldn't stop either Chargers running back last week, but I expect this to be a competitive game between two division rivals, and as such I'll take the points. 

Titans 20 - 19

Chargers -2.5 at Lions

I didn't want to take the Chargers as road favorites, but the market wouldn't give me the full three I needed to back the Lions. As such, give me San Diego Los Angeles.

Chargers 26 - 23

Bills -2 at Giants

Eli Manning and the Giants defense looked awful last week, and the Bills are stout defensively and have some interesting young talent on offense. That said, I'm not willing to lay wood on the road based on one game. Take the points. 

Giants 24 - 23

Cardinals +13.5 at Ravens

I made this line 14, so I'm on the Ravens. I don't want to make too much of what we saw against the Dolphins, but a vertical passing game would move the Ravens from playoff team to Super Bowl threat. Kyler Murray rallied late last week, but at Baltimore is a whole different degree of difficulty. Lay the wood. 

Ravens 30 - 16

Patriots -19 at Dolphins

This has to be the biggest road line in the last 20 years. I set it at 14.5, and even had I been aggressively trying to take the Pats I would have gone no higher than 17.5. That doesn't mean New England won't cover, but at this number, I'm on the Dolphins. 

Patriots 31 - 17

Cowboys -5 at Redskins

The Cowboys looked great last week, but the Giants defense is terrible, and the game was in Dallas. The Redskins might not be a doormat with Case Keenum who was good two years ago, and it seems they found a receiver in rookie Terry McLaurin. Take the home dog. 

Cowboys 24 - 20

Jaguars +8.5 at Texans

Deshaun Watson played an amazing game in New Orleans, but the Texans line can't protect him, the team is coming off a short week and the defense got exposed too. I'm not sure what to expect out of QB Gardner Minshew, but he was sharp in relief of Nick Foles last week at least. Take the points. 

Texans 26 - 19

Seahawks +4 at Steelers

This is a surprise. I thought the line would be 2.5 or three, given how poorly the Steelers played, and because I wanted to take the Steelers to bounce back at home, I made it 3.5. But now I see it's jumped all the way to four, and I'm on the Seahawks! A good reminder to bet the number, not the team. Take the points. 

Steelers 24 - 21

49ers +1.5 at Bengals

These strike me as roughly equal teams, with the 49ers getting only 1.5 points despite going on the road. Take the Bengals who seem to have a pulse under new coach Zac Taylor. 

Bengals 27 - 24

Vikings +3 at Packers

The Vikings had their way with the Falcons at home last week, but I like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers off extra rest and playing at home against a familiar opponent. Lay the wood. 

Packers 26 - 20

LATE GAMES

Chiefs -8 at Raiders

I made this line seven after the Raiders showed up and played well on Monday night. The Chiefs could blow them out, but Patrick Mahomes will be playing through an ankle injury, Tyreek Hill is out for a couple months and the Chiefs defense is not especially good. Take the home dog. 

Chiefs 30 - 23

Saints +3 at Rams

The Saints have a big edge at quarterback and are at least as good everywhere else. And both teams know the wrong team made it to the Super Bowl last year. I actually made this line Saints -2.5, so I'm taking the points. 

Saints 30 - 27

Bears -2.5 at Broncos

This is where I set the line, but at anything less than the full three, I want the Bears who are better on both sides of the ball and facing Joe Flacco. Lay the wood. 

Bears 20 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles -1.5 at Falcons

The Eagles are pretty good, but this strikes me as an overreaction to one game. The Falcons are much better at home, and I expect them to bounce back. Take the home dog. 

Falcons 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Browns -2.5 at Jets

This is a lot like Bears-Broncos. Give me the better road team at anything less than three. (And thankfully it hasn't hit three yet, or I'd be stuck backing the Jets again.) Take the Browns. 

Browns 28 - 24

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Incidentally, I neglected to include my historical record at the bottom of last week's column, which has now been added back below. It's worth noting that when I went to write about my record for the NFL magazine (and recalculated it from the year-by-year results), it came out differently than what I had used in years past. The winning percentages were virtually identical, but the historical (multi-decade) win/loss totals had been a little off in previous seasons for some reason. (Maybe I double-counted a mediocre season somewhere?) In any event, it's been fixed to reflect the accurate historical winning percentage which is 51.9 over 5,096 regular-season games. (I omitted ties.)

Last week, I went 10-6  won my best bet (the Colts), and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.