Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 1

This is the 23rd year I've done this column. Two years ago I compared my run to Vin Scully's, last year to this tree's, but this year I'm going big, comparing it to Tree(3), a number so unfathomably large you can't even wrap your mind around it. It's bigger -- by an incalculably huge amount -- than the number of permutations in which the atoms in the universe could possibly be arranged, far bigger even than the insanely large Graham's number. (I have no idea why no one besides me isn't fascinated by huge numbers, but I digress.) My point is I've been doing this a long time.

For a look into how I got started, you can click here. 

This week, I particularly like the Football Team, Eagles, Patriots and Browns. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +8 at Buccaneers

The Cowboys are loaded on offense, but they'll be missing Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin, have a rusty Dak Prescott who missed most of last season and virtually the entire preseason, and they're facing arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Bucs also have a top-five offense with Tom Brady not showing major signs of wear at 44, a quality offensive line and a few skill players that might wind up in the Hall of Fame, and they draw a Cowboys defense that was among the worst in the league last year. Lay the wood. 

Buccaneers 34 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Steelers +6.5 at Bills

I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Bills who are far better offensively and playing at home. Maybe the Steelers revamped offensive line improves over the course of the year, but in Week 1, give me the team with more stability. 

Bills 27 - 20

Jets +5.5 at Panthers

The question is whether a real man ever bets the Jets. The answer -- if you get the joke -- is that he always bets them. I'm far from a real man, but I'll take the 5.5 between what I consider roughly equal teams. (The other question is whether Sam Darnold takes revenge on his old team for destroying his development, or whether his old team takes revenge for wasting the third overall pick on him.) Take the points. 

Panthers 26 - 23

Jaguars -2.5 at Texans

This line was three, exactly where I set it, but at 2.5, give me the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is one of the greatest QB prospects of all time, and the Texans are sitting a top-five NFL player (who to my knowledge is not officially suspended) for Tyrod Taylor this week, i.e., they are not taking this season seriously.  Lay the wood. 

Jaguars 27 - 17

Cardinals +3 at Titans

I made this line 5.5, and maybe that was too high given the Titans problems on defense. But while Mike Vrabel probably isn't splitting the atom, he's a good motivator and a better coach than Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray will probably put up insane fantasy stats, but the Titans offense should more than keep up. Lay the wood. 

Titans 33 - 27

Chargers -1 at Football Team

I love Justin Herbert -- I'm probably rank him higher than anyone in the industry, but the Football Team has a good defense and made offensive upgrades of their own. I don't see why the the Chargers are laying points on the road. Take the Team. 

Football Team 23 - 20

Eagles +3 at Falcons

I liked this a lot better when it was 3.5, but give me the Eagles who I think are underrated this year. Last year, they lost two Pro Bowl offensive linemen, and Carson Wentz completely fell apart. This year, Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson are healthy, and Jalen Hurts is likely to be a major upgrade. They also added help on the outside, and Zach Ertz could be a factor again. Take the points. 

Eagles 31 - 30

Seahawks -2.5 at Colts

It's hard not to fade a gimpy Carson Wentz for Russell Wilson, but I made this line 1.5, as it's an early road game, and the Colts have the better defense. I don't feel strongly about it, but I'll hold my nose and take Indy. 

Seahawks 24 - 23

Vikings -3 at Bengals

I made this line only 1.5, but I'm having second thoughts. The Vikings get Danielle Hunter back and signed Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson this offseason, so their defense should be much better. The Bengals, of course, get Joe Burrow back, but their offensive line is a big concern. I'll hold my nose and stick with the Bengals -- lots of uncertain prior to Week 1, but this is my weakest lean. 

Vikings 21 - 20

49ers -7.5 at Lions

I made this line seven, so that puts me on the Lions. I'm not proud or happy about it, but it is what it is. 

49ers 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Browns +6 at Chiefs

This is exactly where I set the line, so I'm not strong on this game. I like to fade the Super Bowl loser -- I believe the hangover effect is real -- but Andy Reid on extra prep is usually very good too. Still, give me the Browns, a hungry, up-and-coming team with a great offensive line and an improved defense. Take the points. 

Browns 27 - 24

Dolphins +3 at Patriots

The Dolphins are a tough, scrappy team, and I don't love the matchup for the Patriots, but I'm buying into New England's smashmouth zig to the league's finesse zag. Lay the wood. 

Patriots 24 - 17

Broncos -3 at Giants

I made this line Broncos plus 1, but consider the source (Giants homer). Teddy Bridgewater is more suited to being a backup, and the Giants defense might be very good. Take the home dog. 

Broncos 19 - 17

Packers -3.5 vs Saints (in Jacksonville)

I made this line exactly 3.5, but I like the Saints offensive line, and Jameis Winston might be okay in the right system. The Packers are great offensively, but their defense is only okay. Take the points. 

Packers 27 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bears +7.5 at Rams

I made this line eight, so I'm on the Rams. Andy Dalton is average at best, and he'll face one of the league's top defenses on the road. Lay the wood. 

Rams 26 - 13

MONDAY NIGHT

Ravens -4.5 at Raiders 

I made this line exactly 4.5, so I'm on the fence. There are two rules of thumb when you have the same line as the book: (1) Bet the uglier team (Raiders); or (2) Bet the team you prefer to take (Ravens). The best rule of thumb is this case is not to bet the game at all, but I'll go with (1). Take the points. 

Ravens 27 - 23

For the podcast version of this column, click here. (Goes up every Thursday)

Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.