Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 11 Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 11 edition of Beating the Book!

Coming out of a favorites-dominated Week 9, we were able to (mostly) survive a significantly more chaotic Week 10 and come away with a winning record. 

It was a tough week for the public, as six of the eight most-bet sides at DraftKings lost. In accordance, it was a stellar week for underdogs, which closed the week 11-3 ATS with six outright wins, capped off by the Dolphins handling the Rams in LA on Monday night.

As we turn the page to Week 11, we're presented with one of the most intriguing slates of the season. Starting with Commanders-Eagles on Thursday night, we have a handful of monster games that will go a long way toward deciding divisions and playoff spots. 

As of publication, only three teams are favored by at least a touchdown: Miami, Houston and Detroit. The Lions are a 13.0-point home favorite over Jacksonville, which will likely be quarterbacked by Mac Jones, who piloted the Jags' offense to 143 total yards last week against Minnesota. 

On the other end of the spectrum, we currently have four games sitting with a spread of less than a field goal, headlined by a pair of big-time AFC showdowns. In the late window, the Bills will play host to the undefeated Chiefs, while the Chargers welcome in the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. 

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 11 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 10:

Steelers +3.0 at Commanders: Coming out of a bye, this just had the feel of a classic Mike Tomlin SU win as a road dog.

Cardinals -1.0 vs. Jets: I predicted the Cardinals would win by two, so we're not exactly throwing a parade, but I feel for those who were once again sucked in by this terrible Jets team.

Worst calls of Week 10:

Falcons -3.0 at Saints: Never, ever underestimate the Falcons' ability to blow games against inferior teams.

Giants -5.5 at Panthers: The Panthers have been an auto-fade for me all season, and for the second straight week we got burned. Unlike the Saints in Week 9, though, the Giants absolutely deserved to lose this game.

Last week: 8-6 ATS; 11-3 SU; best bet lost (49ers -5.5)

On the season: 78-71-3 ATS; 101-51 SU; 4-4-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -3.5

Total: 49.5

Fantastic matchup in the NFC to kick off the week on Thursday Night Football. Washington is still one of the best stories of the year, but the Commanders fell at home to the Steelers last week in what felt like somewhat of a predictable trip-up spot. The loss doesn't make me feel any worse about the Commanders, though they were only able to put up 242 yards of offense and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 13 minutes. The absence of Brian Robinson certainly impacted a running game that produced just 55 yards on 18 carries between Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez.

Meanwhile, the Eagles rolled to an easy win in Dallas, forcing five turnovers and holding the Cowboys to just 146 total yards of offense. Philly has now ripped off five straight victories since starting 2-2 and faceplanting against Tampa Bay in Week 4. The ground game has been particularly effective for the Eagles, and that should continue against a Commanders defense that ranks 23rd in rushing EPA, giving up over 140 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt (3rd-most in the NFL).

With Robinson back, I fully expect Washington to come in prepared and make this a close game. But I trust the Eagles' running game to carry them to another win at home. Philly wins outright and narrowly covers.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Commanders 22

Sunday Early Slate

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Packers -5.5

Total: 40.5

It's been a humbling last few weeks for the Bears, who sat at 4-2 heading into their Week 7 bye following a decimation of the Jaguars in London. Since then, Chicago has scored 27 total points and failed to crack 250 yards of offense in two of its last three games. After no-showing in Arizona in Week 9, the Bears hit rock-bottom last week, losing 19-3 to New England and mustering just 142 yards of offense. Chicago converted just 1-of-14 third downs and finished at 3.4 yards per play. On the year, Chicago has accounted for three of the six lowest YPP games in the NFL.

With that in mind, it should not be surprising that the Bears parted ways with OC Shane Waldron this week after what appeared to be a semi-mutiny among veteran players. Interestingly, some veterans reportedly called for a benching of Caleb Williams, who took nine sacks against New England, as well.

Frankly, if you're a Packers fan, the Bears firing their OC five days before this game is actually a devastating development. We'll see if new play-caller Thomas Brown can make an instant impact, but either way the Bears limp into this game with serious questions on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Packers come out of a much-needed bye week looking to recalibrate after an ugly home loss to Detroit in Week 9. Jordan Love could still be dealing with the effects of a groin injury, and his recent spree of Will Levis-ian turnovers is certainly a concern against a Chicago defense that's forced 16 takeaways on the year. 

Ultimately, this is a game Green Bay should look to control on the ground with Josh Jacobs. While Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense EPA, the Bears have tumbled to 20th in rush defense EPA after giving up 168, 213 and 144 yards on the ground to Washington, Arizona and New England, respectively.

If Love looks shaky once again, the Bears can hang around at home. But it's tough to find reasons to believe in this offense right now, even with a new play-caller at the controls. We'll take the Packers to win a relatively low-scoring game by a touchdown.

The pick: Packers 24 – Bears 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -13.0

Total: 46.5

Oh boy. We'll keep this one brief for the sake of my sanity. While the Jaguars ended up covering the closing line for a fourth straight week against Minnesota, we were once again reminded that this is one of the most mistake-prone teams in the NFL, whether it's Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones at quarterback. Jacksonville played Minnesota to a one-score result despite being out-gained 402 to 143 – the fifth-lowest yardage total in Jags franchise history, which says a lot for a team that hasn't been around all that long.

To put the final score into perspective: Since 2001, teams that win a game in which they put up over 400 yards of offense and hold their opponent under 150 yards had not won by less than 13 points… until this past week. If you're wondering how the VIkings accomplished that, Sam Darnold throwing three picks, and Minnesota going 0-of-5 in the red zone, is your answer.

On the Detroit side, the Lions are coming off of an equally improbable result, as they became the first team since 2012 to win a game in which their quarterback throws at least five interceptions. Credit to the Detroit defense for clamping down in the second half and finding a way to survive against a Texans team that scored on five of its first six drives.

We could choose to look at that game as somewhat of a concerning omen for Jared Goff, but instead I think it says more about Detroit's ability to persevere and survive what felt like a worst-case-scenario start. 

With Mac Jones under center for Jacksonville, it should be much easier sledding this week in what should be a nice bounceback spot for Goff.

The pick: Lions 31 – Jaguars 14

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -7.5

Total: 44.0

Coming off of two straight last-second losses, the Dolphins finally got back on track Monday night, pulling out a huge win over the Rams to keep their Wild Card hopes alive This should be a good spot for Miami to bank another win over a Raiders team riding a five-game losing streak, with three of those losses coming by at least 16 points.

The Dolphins' offense didn't exactly light it up in LA – save for the opening drive of the game – but should be able to get back on track against a Vegas defense that ranks 22nd in pass EPA and struggles to generate consistent pressure. 

I'm still not totally sold on this Miami team, but even coming out of a bye, I'm not sure the Raiders can keep this under a touchdown.

The pick: Dolphins 27 – Raiders 17

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Spread: Rams -4.5

Total: 43.5

This line opened at 5.5 before moving to 4.5 following the Rams' ugly loss to Miami at home on Monday night. While LA out-gained Miami by nearly 100 yards, the Rams' offense struggled to get anything going until it was far too late. The ground game has been struggling for a while now, which puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Matthew Stafford to beat teams through the air. Over the last four weeks, the Rams have rushed for 115, 107, 68 and 70 yards and have fallen to 30th in the NFL In yards per carry (3.8) and 26th in yards per game. 

The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off of their second win in the last three games after completely shutting down Caleb Williams and the hapless Bears offense in Week 10. Even with the Rams searching for answers, this will be a significant level-up in competition, but it'll be a good measuring-stick game for the Patriots.

On paper, the Rams have more advantages, and should have a significant edge at both quarterback at head coach, so we'll take LA to limit its mistakes and cover what ends up as a one-score game on the road. This is essentially a must-win for the Rams to have any hope of hanging around in the NFC Wild Card picture.

The pick: Rams 23 – Patriots 17

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -1.0

Total: 44.5

In a week packed with toss-up games, this may be the most toss-upy of them all. Fresh off of a win over Atlanta, New Orleans is just a slight home favorite over the Browns, who are coming off of a bye week, which followed a beatdown at the hands of the Chargers.

With Jameis Winston at quarterback, the Browns are at least a fun team to watch, and the black cloud that followed this franchise for the first half of the season has been lifted. But that Week 9 loss was a reminder that for as fun as Jameis is, he's still among the most mistake-prone quarterbacks in NFL history. The question is whether the Saints defense can take advantage. 

Both of these teams are very difficult to evaluate. New Orleans is two weeks removed from losing to Carolina. Cleveland is three weeks removed from beating Baltimore. It should go without saying that this is our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, and it's contention for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Year.

With limited weapons and the post-coach-firing bump now behind them, the Saints are the side that I trust slightly less. We'll roll with the Browns to win outright on the road, but the U44.5 is the only play I would really endorse here.

The pick: Browns 23 – Saints 20

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Ravens -3.5

Total: 48.5

This game is pretty easily the headliner in the early window with first place in the AFC North on the line. Three weeks into The Russell Wilson Experiment, Mike Tomlin has been beyond vindicated, as Wilson has woken up a sluggish passing game and piloted Pittsburgh to three of its four highest-total-yardage games of the season.

While Wilson threw for only 172 yards in Washington last week, the threat of a competent passing game has clearly paid dividends on the ground, where Pittsburgh continues to gash opponents. Over the last four games – all wins – Pittsburgh has out-rushed its opponents 639 yards to 328.

Continuing that trend against Baltimore will be a tall task, but the Bengals found success in limiting the Ravens' dominant ground game last week, and the Steelers' defense is playing as well as any unit in the NFL right now.

I won't go as far as to take Pittsburgh to win outright for the second straight week, but I think we could see Baltimore struggle to pull away. Ravens win by a field goal but Pittsburgh gets the cover at home.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Steelers 24

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Vikings -5.5

Total: 39.5

First of all, if you grabbed the Vikings at -4.5 early last week, congratulations. If you jumped on Minnesota at any number higher than that, I'm sorry. As explicated above, there is no way Minnesota should've only won that game by five points. But this is now two straight weeks in which the Vikings have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot.

While they were still able to cover in Week 9 against Indy, Minnesota turned it over three times – including a fumble that was returned for a TD – and missed two field goals on consecutive drives in the first half.

Luckily, when you're facing the AFC South, you can get away with an onslaught of mistakes. And the Vikings have the fortune of taking on a third consecutive AFC South opponent this week. Tennessee is capable of a certain level of friskiness, but ultimately this is an offense that's scored more than 17 points in regulation one (1) time this season – back in Week 4 against the Tyler Huntley Dolphins.

Minnesota has been able to survive Sam Darnold's mistakes thanks to a defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA and has forced an NFL-high 20 turnovers in nine games. The Vikings have been vulnerable, at times, against the pass, but the run defense is allowing just 79.0 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry on the year.

On the other side, the Titans' defense has been able to keep them in games, but those have mostly come against some of the league's worst offenses. In matchups against Green Bay, Buffalo, Detroit and the Chargers, the Titans have ceded 30, 34, 52 and 27 points.

Given the recent sloppiness, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee is a popular home dog play, but I like this as a get-right spot for Darnold and a two-score win for Minnesota.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Titans 17

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Spread: Jets -4.0

Total: 43.5

The Jets are back at home after getting smacked around in Arizona, but I initially wondered why they were giving 4.0 to the Colts in this spot. Well, we now have our answer:

Indy has dropped two in a row, and turned it over six times in that span, so they're not exactly red-hot, but going back to Anthony Richardson – after publicly installing Joe Flacco as the starter for the rest of the season – introduces more unnecessary chaos to a team that's clearly searching for some semblance of consistency. With Richardson at the helm, I expect the Colts to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor and what should be a relatively conservative gameplan.

New York's ground game continues to be an issue, and they've failed to crack 300 yards of offense in each of the last two games. Meanwhile, the defense has fallen off of a cliff this season and just gave up 406 yards to Arizona. On the year, the Jets are down to 21st in defensive EPA and 26th against the rush.

This game will likely come down to which team commits fewer errors. Both sides have proven to be plenty mistake-prone, especially of late, but Richardson re-entering the fray introduces a tremendous amount of variance on the Indy side. While I do think Taylor can keep them afloat against this shaky defense, we have to side with the Jets to win outright. Disclaimer: I do not like this pick one bit.

The pick: Jets 23 – Colts 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -2.5

Total: 44.0

Interesting cross-conference matchup between two teams with contrasting styles of play. In terms of talent, Atlanta is clearly the better team – especially offensively – but the Falcons continue to make a habit of playing down to competition, failing to finish off drives and committing mistakes at the worst possible times.

On balance, Kirk Cousins is piloting what's turned into a top-10 offense, yet the Falcons have just one win by more than six points and always seem to find ways to allow inferior opponents to hang around. Defensively, Denver is certainly not an inferior team, and Bo Nix continues to settle in on a week-to-week basis. After tossing four picks in the first two games of the season, Nix has just two interceptions over his last seven starts (211 pass attempts) and has thrown for over 200 yards in five of his last six.

Meanwhile, the Falcons rank in the bottom 10 defensively, struggle to generate pressure, and have consistently given up yardage to just about every team they've faced. On paper, Atlanta should have some advantages in the passing game, but the Denver defense ranks third in pass defense EPA and is allowing just 192 yards per game.

Ultimately, the Broncos defense is the unit I trust most here, so we'll ride the home team to a win and cover.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Falcons 17

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -6.5

Total: 48.5

Coming out of the bye, Seattle is looking to snap a two-game losing streak and get its season back on the rails after dropping five of its last six. Getting DK Metcalf back in the mix should be a meaningful boost, but Seattle continues to be among the most mistake-prone teams in the NFL on a weekly basis. That was on full display in Week 9 against the Rams, when the Seahawks piled up 424 yards of offense but turned the ball over on three key possessions.

The Niners come into this game off of a win over the Bucs. While they failed to cover – not naming any names, but someone made it their best bet of Week 10 – they absolutely should've won by at least six points. Three (3) Jake Moody missed field goals crushed that dream, though the Niners had multiple promising drives fizzle out to force those tries. Red zone offense has been a concern for the Niners all season, as they've converted just 38 trips into 18 touchdowns (47.4%) – good for the fifth-worst percentage in the NFL.

Ultimately, though, I don't hold anything we saw last week against San Francisco. They dominated virtually every key statistic, ripped off 6.8 yards per play and, perhaps most importantly, Christian McCaffrey played a full snapload and looked like himself.

After taking care of business against this shaky Seahawks defense on the road earlier in the season, we like the Niners to win by touchdown at home to complete the season sweep.

The pick: 49ers 33 – Seahawks 26

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -2.5

Total: 46.5

Here we go. Not only is this the game of the week, but it may be the game of the year in the NFL thus far. Somehow, some way, the Chiefs escaped with a win over Denver last week to keep their perfect season intact. While we're past the halfway point, it still feels a little early to start the could they go 17-0? discussions, but if KC wins this game, you better believe that narrative will ramp up, especially with a pair of cupcakes (Carolina, Las Vegas) on the schedule in Weeks 12 and 13.

While the Chiefs may have the better record, the Bills have arguably looked like the most impressive team this season. They've scored at least 30 points seven times this season – something KC has only done once, and it came in an overtime game. But the Bills do have some key injuries on offense to monitor. Dalton Kincaid is banged up, Amari Cooper is questionable, and rookie Keon Coleman has already been ruled out. 

Even with Kansas City not looking all that impressive, Buffalo will need close to a full complement of weapons to hang in with a team that simply keeps finding ways to win.

With the Chiefs hanging as an underdog, we're left with no choice but to back Patrick Mahomes in this spot. The U46.5 is my favorite play in this game, however.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Bills 21

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -1.5

Total: 47.5

I would like to officially extend a thank you to the league office for flexing Colts-Jets out of the Sunday night window in favor of this matchup. Even after taking another loss to Baltimore last week, the Bengals' season is far from over, but this feels like a must-win game if they want to feel good about their chances to hang around in the AFC playoff picture.

All things considered, Cincy played well enough to win on Thursday night, piling up 470 yards of offense, most of which came via the arm of Joe Burrow. If the Bengals can get Tee Higgins back in the mix, that should provide a significant boost to a passing game that's essentially relying on Ja'Marr Chase and a group of no-name pass-catchers.

On the Chargers side, they've done nothing but take care of business this season, most recently handling the Titans in Week 10. The Chargers' week-to-week consistency has been impressive, though we need to keep in mind that their six wins have come cover Vegas, Carolina, Denver, New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee, while they've lost to Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Arizona.

This will be the toughest test the Chargers have faced in a month, and while I continue to be impressed by Justin Herbert, the LA running game hasn't been nearly as dominant as it looked early in the season. 

This should be a really fun, back-and-forth duel between Burrow and Herbert. It's a total toss-up, but assuming Higgins is back, I'll side with the Bengals to find a way to win on the road and keep their postseason hopes alive.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Chargers 23

Monday Night Football

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Texans -7.5

Total: 42.0

After stumbling to three losses in the last four weeks, the Texans should be in a good spot to get back in the win column against a Cowboys team that managed just 146 yards of total offense against Philly last week. Dallas did only trail by one score at the half, but four lost fumbles – plus a late Trey Lance pick – ultimately doomed any chance of the Cowboys keeping that game competitive.

Offensively, the Texans have more question marks than Philly right now, but I like this spot for Joe Mixton to get loose against one of the NFL's worst run defenses. Assuming Nico Collins is back, that should help unlock a Texans passing game that's fallen short of the 200-yard mark in four of the last five weeks.

While it wouldn't surprise me if the Houston offense looks a bit sluggish, we can't side with Cooper Rush in this spot.

The pick: Texans 30 – Cowboys 17