Beating The Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 5

That was a brutal week. I went 5-10 overall, lost my best bet (Dolphins) and went 1-4 in the Super Contest. The whole game is deciding how much to value recent results against prior track record, and I seem to be getting the balance wrong, chasing last week's improvements where it's unwarranted and fading last week's seemingly anomalous results when they turn out to be for real. Hopefully, I've calibrated it better for Week 5. 

This week, I especially like the Giants, Steelers and Redskins. I feel especially shaky about my Chargers, Bears and Cowboys picks. 

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Rams +1.5 at Seahawks

I made this line 2.5 as the Rams are probably the slightly better team, but the Seahawks are good, and they're especially tough at home. I also typically favor the home team on a short week. 

Seahawks 26 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Ravens -3.5 at Steelers

I wanted to be on the Ravens here as I usually like to fade last week's results, and the Steelers are coming off a short week. So I made the line zero, thinking the Steelers would be a small favorite at home. But three and a half is a bridge too far. The Ravens defense has looked pedestrian for the last three games, and the Steelers should move the ball against them. Take the home dog. 

Steelers 23 - 20

Bears -4.5 at Raiders (in London)

The Raiders haven't been a total doormat this year, and this line might be too big with Chase Daniel under center, but I made the line six, and I'll stick with it, as Oakland's dink and dunk offense will have a hard time generating points. 

Bears 16 - 6

Cardinals +3.5 at Bengals

Two terrible teams, and I'm concerned that recency bias -- watching the Bengals debacle on Monday night -- is skewing this for me, but I made the line an even three. Take the Cardinals. 

Bengals 27 - 24

Jaguars +3.5 at Panthers

I made this line 4.5, as the Panthers defense has been nasty, and I like their offense a little more. But this isn't a strong lean as the Jaguars defense is good, and Gardner Minshew has a knack in big moments. 

Panthers 20 - 16

Vikings -5.5 at Giants

The Giants are on a roll now with Daniel Jones, but the Vikings are a real defense, and Dalvin Cook is a good bet to run over the Giants defense. Still, this is a massive line on the road from a team that can't protect its QB, facing an offense with a pulse. Take the points. 

Vikings 24 - 20

Patriots -15.5 at Redskins

I hate being on so many crappy teams, but this line is too big on the road for a Patriots team that can't run the ball and doesn't have an elite outside weapon or tight end. Take the home dog. 

Patriots 23 - 10

Jets +13.5 at Eagles

No one is happier than I am that the Jets are a joke, but Sam Darnold could be back, and in any event, this line is too big from an Eagles team lacking a secondary. Take the points. 

Eagles 27 - 16

Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints

I was hoping to be on the Bucs so I made this line smaller than I thought it would be (3.5), but it turns out the market agreed with me, so I have to make a choice. The Bucs defense is better than it was, and Jameis Winston is gaining confidence. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 27 - 23

Falcons +5 at Texans

Both teams are buy-lows after terrible showings, but in cases like this, I typically like the underdog. The Falcons should be able to sling it around and largely keep up. Take the points. 

Texans 30 - 27

Bills +3 at Titans

These are roughly equal teams, and I have the line at three also. I have a slight Titans feeling, so I'll go with that, but it's a coin flip. 

Titans 20 - 16

LATE GAMES

Broncos +6.5 at Chargers

I made this line seven and immediately regretted it when I saw the market number. The Chargers play poorly as favorites, and the Broncos are desperate. Moreover, the Chargers have almost no home field advantage in Los Angeles, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball effectively against them. Still, I'll to stick to the process (early poor results notwithstanding) -- the time to change my mind about the seven was before I saw the actual line, not after. 

Chargers 27 - 20

Packers +3.5 at Cowboys

I made this line 6.5 before I realized star LT Tyron Smith was out. He's not worth three points, but it could change the dynamic of this game. Still, I'll stick with the Cowboys who should be able to run the ball and play a lot better at home. 

Cowboys 27 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts +11 at Chiefs

I made this line 10.5, and it was the exact number initially, but now it's been pushed to 11, so I'm on the Colts. I'm not happy about it, and I'll be even less happy if Tyreek Hill plays, but hopefully the Colts get Darius Leonard and T.Y. Hilton back. 

Chiefs 34 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Browns +3.5 at 49ers

I made this line three -- maybe an overreaction from last week's drubbing of the Ravens, but it's also more in line with my priors about the Browns before the year. The 49ers could be decent or great -- it's hard for me to tell -- but I'm taking the points. 

Browns 27 - 26

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 5-10, lost my best bet (the Dolphins), and went 1-4 in the Super Contest. I'm now 28-35 on the year, 2-2 on best bets and 8-12 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.