Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4

Last week wasn't great, but it probably felt worse than it was. I was 7-2 through the early slate, 3-0 in the Super Contest and having already won my best bet. But I lost all seven remaining afternoon and night games to finish at 7-9, and for most of those I was clearly on the wrong side. 

This week, I had a bad feeling writing up the Giants, Ravens, Rams and Colts picks. I won't change them -- they're based on the lines I made -- but the write-ups rang false to me. I especially like the Dolphins and Jaguars this week. I'll post my best bet and Super Contest picks in the comments. 

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Eagles +4.5 at Packers

The Eagles are banged up, and the Packers are especially tough at home, but this line strikes me as ever-so-slightly too big. The Packers haven't lit anyone up so far this year, and the Eagles' front seven is stout. Take the points. 

Packers 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Panthers +4.5 at Texans

I suspect the Panthers are actually a good team, but that was masked by the play of a hobbled Cam Newton for two weeks. Kyle Allen is hardly Joe Montana, but with a competent QB these are roughly equal teams. Take the points. 

Texans 26 - 23

Browns +7 at Ravens

I made this line 7.5, so I'm narrowly on the Ravens. Baker Mayfield could play better and turn this into a game, but the offensive line is bad, and a visit to Baltimore usually isn't the cure for that. Lay the wood. 

Ravens 27 - 19

Redskins +3 at Giants

I made this line 3.5. The Redskins have a much better defense, but I think the switch to Daniel Jones might help the Giants defense somewhat as sustained drives provide more rest. Plus the Redskins are coming off a physical loss on a short week. Take the Giants. 

Giants 27 - 23

Chargers -16 at Dolphins

I made this line only 8.5! That would be like 14.5 at home, but the market apparently thinks the Dolphins are historically bad when merely decent teams like the Chargers are laying that kind of wood on the road. Of course they could cover it, but give me the points. 

Chargers 27 - 16

Raiders +7 at Colts

The Raiders have looked awful the last two games, but the Colts don't pull away from anyone, given their grind-it-out style behind game manager Jacoby Brissett. Still, this isn't a big line at home, and the Raiders offense (and defense) have little to offer. Lay the wood. 

Colts 28 - 20

Chiefs -6.5 at Lions

I'm surprised this line is under seven. I know the Lions have played better defensively, but the Chiefs are a force of nature. I don't see Matthew Stafford keeping up. Lay the wood. 

Chiefs 33 - 23

Patriots -7 at Bills

I made this line 6.5. The Patriots released Antonio Brown and now could be without Julian Edelman too against a solid Bills defense. The Bills will have trouble moving the ball, but they're familiar with the Pats and should put up a fight at home. Take the points. 

Patriots 23 - 17

Titans +4 at Falcons

The Titans match up well against the Falcons, but Atlanta is so much better at home, and I don't see Marcus Mariota keeping up with Matt Ryan if the Titans get behind. Take Atlanta. 

Falcons 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Buccaneers +10 at Rams

I hate when this happens. I've been down on the Rams the first three weeks, and now I'm finally backing them (my line was 11.5), and I'm sure it'll be first game they don't cover. But I made the line that big because Jared Goff is so much better at home, and Jameis Winston is good for a couple soul-killing turnovers. Take the Rams. 

Rams 34 - 23

Seahawks -5 at Cardinals

I made this line three. The Seahawks aren't as good on the road, and I expected Kyler Murray to fling the ball around and keep the Cardinals in this one against a so-so defense. Take the home dog. 

Seahawks 30 - 27

Vikings +2.5 at Bears

I made this game a pick 'em. Matt Nagy is a clever play designer, but Mitch Trubisky isn't good, and the Vikings are stout on defense. Kirk Cousins hasn't been much better, but he's an NFL-quality passer at least. Take the points. 

Vikings 20 - 19

Jaguars +3 at Broncos

The Broncos are a desperate animal, and they're at home, but Jacksonville is just as good defensively, and Gardner Minshew has more of a pulse than Joe Flacco. Take the points.

Jaguars 17 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -2.5 at Saints

I made this line Cowboys minus three, though Teddy Bridgewater looked better last week as a game manager, and Alvin Kamara got involved. If Kellen Moore and the Cowboys open this up -- as they have early on -- I don't think the Saints will keep up. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 26 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Bengals +4 at Steelers

I made this line exactly four, so I have leeway here. I have a slight Steelers feeling, but value-wise it seems wrong. Are the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Mike Munchak coaching the offensive line still the Steelers on whom we can count? Mike Tomlin is still the coach, but how far does institutional memory take us? The Bengals can't block, and their defense isn't good, but give me the points. 

Steelers 23 - 20

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 7-9, won my best bet (the Bengals), and went 3-2 in the Super Contest. I'm now 23-25 on the year, 2-1 on best bets and 7-8 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.