Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 2

I went 5-9-1 last week, won my best bet (the Browns) and went 2-3 in the LVH Supercontest.

But I post my results only for your sake. As I wrote last week, I'm done with results as a measuring stick, and my "process" is a joke. There's nothing more cowardly than forecasters who hide between their supposedly pristine "process" when they do poorly. I promise you won't see that here.

No, my barometer is whether I stayed true to my own observations in making the picks - not swayed by some stat someone threw at me with a tone of authority or some fear I could be on the wrong side. On that count, I went 15-0. I believed in the picks I made, and I can't be troubled that the games just so happened to play out differently. If I had a joystick that controlled the players, my actual record might align with my personal barometer, but as of September, 2017, that's not yet the case.

Off the top of my head, I especially like the Broncos, but Dalton Del Don and I will make our five LVH supercontest picks on our podcast later tonight or tomorrow.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Texans +6 at Bengals

I want to take the Bengals here, even though at six the Texans are a good value. But I especially like the home team on a short week, and J.J. Watt is banged up and not quite himself yet. Lay the wood.

Bengals 17 - 6

EARLY GAMES

Titans -2 at Jaguars

This is about the right line - anywhere between pick 'em and Titans minus 2.5. Maybe Jacksonville's defense is for real, but let's hold off on pronouncing that until after they face a credible quarterback. Take the Titans.

Titans 23 - 19

Browns +7.5 at Ravens

Maybe DeShone Kizer is the answer, but a road game in Baltimore is a tall order. The Ravens offense is garbage, but it'll probably be enough. Lay the wood.

Ravens 26 - 17

Bills +7 at Panthers

This is probably the right line, though it's hard to say as neither team had much of a test last week. I'll lay the wood here as the Panthers won more easily, they were on the road, and Cam Newton didn't even play well.

Panthers 28 - 20

Patriots -6.5 at Saints

I wish I could bet on both sides here as I love the Saints at home getting so many points against what looked like a terrible defense, but I also love auto-backing the Pats, last week's fiasco nothwithstanding. In the end, I think Drew Brees should be able to shoot it out at home with Tom Brady. Take the points.

Patriots 33 - 30

Cardinals -7.5 at Colts

Can I fade both these teams? I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Colts in a low-scoring game.

Cardinals 16 - 9

Eagles +5 at Chiefs

If Eric Berry were healthy, I'd feel better about the Chiefs, but I'm still taking them given Andy Reid's track record off extra prep time. Lay the wood.

Chiefs 27 - 20

Vikings +6.5 at Steelers

This is a big line for a Vikings squad with a stout defense and an apparently potent offense (I say apparently because they drew the Saints at home in Week 1.) Even so, I'm taking the Steelers - they're a different animal at home, and I expect them to put up points.

Steelers 31 - 23

Bears +6.5 at Buccaneers

The Bears can cover if they keep the game low-scoring, but I don't see how they get their points if Tampa gets to 24. Mike Glennon isn't good, and the receivers are terrible. Take the Bucs.

Buccaneers 24 - 17

LATE GAMES

Dolphins +4.5 at Chargers

The Chargers are a trendy sleeper this year, but the Dolphins are my sleeper. I like Adam Gase, and Jay Cutler knows the offense which suddenly has a lot of weapons. Take the points.

Dolphins 27 - 24

Jets +14 at Raiders

I don't think the Raiders are anything special, but they're a perfect team to play the Jets - Derek Carr rarely makes mistakes, and their average-at-best defense won't be tested against Josh McCown. Lay the wood.

Raiders 33 - 6

Redskins +2.5 at Rams

The Rams looked good against the Colts last week, but now they face an NFL team. I'll take the points.

Redskins 23 - 20

Cowboys -2 at Broncos

I would have made this line Cowboys plus three. I have no idea why they're laying wood in Denver unless you think they're strong defensive showing was due to something other than facing the Giants without their only good offensive player. Take the home dog.

Broncos 23 - 20

49ers +13.5 at Seahawks

The Seahawks offense is ridiculous - have Russell Wilson run for his life and hope to school-yard some plays. Against the 49ers, it'll probably work, though, and I expect Seattle's defense to shut San Francisco down. Lay the wood.

Seahawks 24 - 9

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers +2.5 at Falcons

This line was moving to three in some places, and I'd like the Packers a lot better at that number, but I'm rolling with Aaron Rodgers even at 2.5. I believe in the Super Bowl loser hangover theory, and the Bears might have taken the Falcons down last week if Jordan Howard hangs onto that pass in the closing seconds. Take the points.

Packers 31 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Lions +4 at Giants

This is an odd line - Vegas is begging you to take the Lions - why would it not be three at most? Of course, this presumes Odell Beckham plays, and I think he will. Take New York.

Giants 27 - 20

For our handicapping takes via podcast, click here.

I went 5-9-1 against the spread in Week 1 and 2-3 on LVH Supercontest picks. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.