This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 2-2 last week, winning with the Packers and Pats, losing with the Chiefs, my best bet, and Seahawks.
I wasn't sure how I felt about these games until I wrote them up, but it looks like I'm rolling with both favorites. If I had to pick a best bet, it would be the Pats.
CONFERENCE TITLE GAMES
Packers +4.5 at Falcons
The Falcons looked unstoppable last week with precision throws coming out of Matt Ryan's hands before the Seahawks pass rush could even get started. With an unguardable weapon in Julio Jones and two backs capable of doing damage in the air or on the ground, it's hard to see this below-average Packers defense even slowing them down. On the Packers side of the ball, it's mostly the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers, and he'll likely have to do it again without top receiver Jordy Nelson. Moreover, the Falcons defense has played better over the season's second half, and if it slows down Rodgers even somewhat, the Packers won't keep up. Lay the wood.
Falcons 34 - 23
Steelers +6 at Patriots
The Steelers eked out an ugly win last week in Kansas City, but once again Ben Roethlisberger was pedestrian on the road with no touchdowns and one interception. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and their pass rush and pass protection were impressive. The Patriots present a tougher challenge with Tom Brady able to read the defense
I went 2-2 last week, winning with the Packers and Pats, losing with the Chiefs, my best bet, and Seahawks.
I wasn't sure how I felt about these games until I wrote them up, but it looks like I'm rolling with both favorites. If I had to pick a best bet, it would be the Pats.
CONFERENCE TITLE GAMES
Packers +4.5 at Falcons
The Falcons looked unstoppable last week with precision throws coming out of Matt Ryan's hands before the Seahawks pass rush could even get started. With an unguardable weapon in Julio Jones and two backs capable of doing damage in the air or on the ground, it's hard to see this below-average Packers defense even slowing them down. On the Packers side of the ball, it's mostly the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers, and he'll likely have to do it again without top receiver Jordy Nelson. Moreover, the Falcons defense has played better over the season's second half, and if it slows down Rodgers even somewhat, the Packers won't keep up. Lay the wood.
Falcons 34 - 23
Steelers +6 at Patriots
The Steelers eked out an ugly win last week in Kansas City, but once again Ben Roethlisberger was pedestrian on the road with no touchdowns and one interception. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and their pass rush and pass protection were impressive. The Patriots present a tougher challenge with Tom Brady able to read the defense and get rid of the ball so quickly to a variety of receivers including his backs.
If for some reason we knew the good version of Roethlisberger would show up, the Pittsburgh offense is good enough to keep pace. But Roethlisberger's extreme home/road splits date back to the start of 2014, i.e., I expect him to play passably at best, and would be surprised if he were able to carve up New England's decent, but far-from-special defense. As for the Steelers pass rush, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have seen tape of last week's game too, and they'll make the necessary adjustments. Lay the points.
Patriots 27 - 20
I went 2-2 in the Divisional Round, 4-4 in the playoffs overall. I was 123-128-5 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. From 1999-2016, I've gone 2,305-2,142 (51.8%), not including ties.
