Backfield Breakdown: 2023 RB Season Review & 2024 PPR Rankings

This is partially a look back at the 2023 season from a RB-focused perspective, but it's also meant to help with preparation for 2024. In addition to awards and stats from this past season, I'll provide my too-early rankings for next year (Top 60, PPR) as well as lists of injuries, free agents and contract situations to keep an eye on throughout spring/summer.

1. 2023 Awards
2. Offseason Injury Rehab
3. Free Agents, Holdout Candidates & Potential Cap Casualties
4. 2024 PPR Rankings
5. Cumulative RB Production by Team
6. 2023 Stat Tables

2023 Awards 🏆

Real-Life MVP: Christian McCaffrey

Fantasy MVP:  Christian McCaffrey

Best Pure Runner: Christian McCaffrey

Best Pass Catcher:  Christian McCaffrey

Rookie of The Year: Jahmyr Gibbs

Breakout Player:  Kyren Williams

Comeback Player: Breece Hall

Most Improved: Kyren Williams

Real-Life LVP: Miles Sanders

Fantasy LVP: Austin Ekeler

I thought about making this more fun and not just listing McCaffrey over and over again, which would've meant Breece Hall being the top pass catcher and either Derrick Henry or Kyren Williams as the best runner. But really, that would've been nonsense. While Hall caught more passes, McCaffrey had seven receiving TDs and a success rate on targets that was 15.4 percentage points higher (55.4 vs. 40.0). And the eye test still favors McCaffrey as the NFL's best receiving back, especially with Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler slipping.

The two guys that might've challenged McCaffrey's prowess as a runner — Nick Chubb (knee) and Jonathan Taylor — both missed too many games to garner consideration for these highly prestigious awards. McCaffrey benefited immensely from his scheme and offensive line, but he also finished second in yards after contact and Top 8 among qualified rushers in yards after contact per attempt (these stats vary a bit depending on where you get them from). 

Other guys broke more tackles, but nobody could match CMC's combination of vision, anticipation, breakaway speed and elusiveness. He won the rushing title by a margin of 292 yards over Derrick Henry, despite sitting out Week 18 with a calf injury (one he might've played through if the Niners hadn't already clinched the No. 1 seed). 

Williams actually led the league in carries per game (19.0) and rushing yards per game (95.3), and his 59.3 percent success rate on rush attempts was second among RBs to only Aaron Jones' 62.0 percent. But McCaffrey averaged slightly more yardage both before and after contact, plus he played four more games.

In terms of the other awards, we'll give honorable ROTY mentions to Bijan Robinson and De'Von Achane, though the former was perhaps a bit disappointing relative to massive expectations. Isiah Pacheco gets the honorable mention for Breakout Player, having proven he's a quality starter and not just another guy riding Patrick Mahomes' coattails to fantasy success. Pacheco was all-tools-no-polish as a rookie, but he seems to have figured out this NFL thing in Year 2.

Offseason Injury Rehab 🚑

Nick Chubb - ACL tear 

This was the most impactful RB injury of 2023, both in real-life and fantasy terms. Many, including myself, were expecting a career year from Chubb thanks to reduced snap competition in Cleveland's backfield (read: more targets). Instead, he suffered a season-ending injury Week 2, with damage to his MCL and meniscus in addition to the ACL.

He didn't have surgery until nearly two months later, Nov. 14, which means he's not a lock to be ready for Week 1 of 2024 despite getting injured so early in 2023. Further complicating matters, Chubb has only one year remaining on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $11.775 million base salary and $425,000 in per-game roster bonuses. He turned 28 in December but is probably one of the few RBs talented enough to remain relevant into his late 20s / early 30s (if he can bounce back from the major knee injury).

Keaton Mitchell - ACL tear

Mitchell went undrafted last spring but then emerged as a mid-season breakout star, continuing the trend of speedy, smallish RBs from the 2023 rookie class finding Year 1 success. He barely played in his first two games (Weeks 6-7) but then took 47 carries for 396 yards (8.43 YPC) and two TDs in a six-game stretch Weeks 9-15. 

Mitchell also looked comfortable as a pass catcher with a 9-93-0 line on 11 targets, but an ugly-looking ACL tear Dec. 17 puts his availability for the start of 2024 in serious question. While details still haven't been reported, it's more likely than not that he suffered additional damage beyond the ACL.

[LOG] J.K. Dobbins - Achilles' tear

Dobbins has dealt with some of the worst luck in recent memory, suffering an ACL tear in 2021 (his second season) and then missing more time in the middle part of 2022 for a follow-up surgery on the same knee. He returned for the late part of the 2022 campaign and played well, only to suffer a torn Achilles' tendon Week 1 of his 2023 contract year. 

Among the commonly seen injuries, it's known to be the worst for running backs. Many are able to return the next season, but they're never the same player and most end up out of the league within a year or two. D'Onta Foreman is the recent success case, and he didn't get much playing time until four years after suffering the injury as a rookie in 2017. Foreman had 32 touches in the three years following his injury, then bounced back to average 148.3 carries for 635 yards (4.3 YPC) and 4.0 TDs the past three seasons for three different teams.

My guess here is that Dobbins will re-sign with the Ravens but not necessarily be expected to contribute. Anything they get from him would be a bonus, and the odds are stacked against him ever becoming a starting-caliber RB again. 

Cam Akers and James Robinson both suffered the same injury earlier in their respective careers and never really rebounded. Mikel Leshoure suffered the injury as a rookie in training camp after being a second-round pick, then came back the next season and scored nine TDs despite averaging just 3.7 YPC. Leshoure played three more games, then was out of the league for good. 

Other examples mostly were lesser or older RBs, e.g. Marlon Mack, Isaiah Crowell, 29-year-old Arian Foster. None regained fantasy relevance after his Achilles' tear. Foreman's relative success years after the incident suggests that maybe Dobbins should aim for 2025, as he's unlikely to regain his explosiveness for 2024 even if he's medically cleared. Personally, I'm not interested in rostering him in any of my dynasty leagues.

 Rhamondre Stevenson (high ankle)

Stevenson missed the final five games of the season and was placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks. There hasn't been any report of surgery, nor any level of detail provided. That's the norm for New England, and there's a chance it will be months before we know anything more. The decision to keep him on the active roster for three weeks after the initial injury suggests it probably wasn't the type of high-ankle sprain that would require major surgery... but that's not a guarantee.

Evan Hull (knee)

Hull was a fifth-round pick last spring and had a nice chance at an early season role on account of Jonathan Taylor's holdout/injury and Zack Moss missing Week 1 with a broken arm. Hull then hurt his knee Week 1 after just eight snaps, landing on injured reserve a couple days later. Coach Shane Steichen initially said he expected the rookie to return at some point in 2023, but a month later it was reported that Hull would miss the rest of the season. While details haven't been reported, the timeline of events hints at a meniscus injury or PCL/MCL damage.

 Chris Rodriguez (ankle)

A rookie sixth-round pick, Rodriguez was a third-stringer until Brian Robinson's hamstring injury allowed him to get 10 carries in back-to-back games Weeks 15 and 16. He took those 20 totes for 93 yards and two TDs, only to be placed on injured reserve a few days later with a foot injury. Rodriguez finished his rookie year with a 51-247-2 rushing line (4.84 YPC) and two catches for 12 yards, looking like a potential threat to the mediocre Robinson for 2024 and beyond. Robinson has two years left on his rookie contract, while Antonio Gibson is an impending free agent.

 Cam Akers (Achilles)

The only good news for Akers is that he tore his left Achilles' tendon, having previously suffered the same injury to his right foot in 2021. Still, he hasn't looked the same since that first injury and now seems even more unlikely to make a significant impact in the NFL again. He's scheduled for unrestricted free agency in March.

Free Agents / Holdout Candidates / Cap Casualties 💰💰💰

Free Agents

This list includes any RB that played at least 20 percent of his team's snaps in 2023.

 Tony Pollard (71% snaps)

 Saquon Barkley (65%)

Josh Jacobs (57%)

 Devin Singletary (56%)

D'Andre Swift (55%)

 Austin Ekeler (54%)

Derrick Henry (53%)

Ezekiel Elliott (51%)

Zack Moss (48%)

AJ Dillon (45%)

Antonio Gibson (42%)

 Gus Edwards (42%)

Joshua Kelley (34%)

Latavius Murray (30%)

Kareem Hunt (27%)

Matt Breida (26%)

D'Onta Foreman (24%)

Jerick McKinnon (23%)

Rico Dowdle (21%)

Ameer Abdullah (21%)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20%)

Patrick Taylor (20% - restricted free agent)

Others: Dalvin Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson, Royce Freeman, D'Ernest Johnson, Chase Edmonds, D'Ernest Johnson, Salvon Ahmed (foot), Trayveon Williams, Dare Ogunbowale, DeeJay Dallas, Ty Johnson, Boston Scott, Damien Harris (head), Rashaad Penny, J.K. Dobbins (knee)

Jacobs, Barkley and Pollard all got franchise tags last year, with Jacobs and Barkley eventually signing amended one-year contracts that gave them some upside to make more than the $10.09 million tag. Barkley seems most likely to be tagged again, though it would cost 20 percent more ($12.11 million).

You could also make an argument for tagging Henry or Ekeler, but it's not what I expect in either case.... especially with Ekeler after multiple years of tense contract negotiations and then a down season in 2023.It is worth noting that new Titans coach Brian Callahan said positive things about Henry recently, perhaps causing some to question the assumption that the hiring of a passing-game-focused coach meant the 30-year-old RB was definitely done in Tennessee.

Holdout Candidates

These RBs are entering contract years and might consider holding out from offseason practices (or even training camp and games) if they don't get new contracts.

Travis Etienne

 Najee Harris

 Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)

 Javonte Williams

Raheem Mostert

It looks like we'll have less drama here compared to recent years, with Etienne the only guy that has a solid case for a large, multi-year deal. He and Harris were first-round picks, which means their teams can use fifth-year options to keep them under contract through 2025. 

Among guys that aren't on rookie contracts, the most prominent 2025 free agents are Mostert, Aaron Jones and James Conner. While Jones and Conner have large enough contracts that they probably won't consider holdouts, Mostert might think about it given that his scheduled 2024 compensation is a $2.36 million base salary, $100,000 workout bonus and $290,000 in per-game roster bonuses. None of that is guaranteed, and the Dolphins may be hesitant to pay him significantly more given that Mostert turns 32 in April and doesn't have the most encouraging medical history.

Possible Cap Casualties

 Alvin Kamara

 Joe Mixon

Jeff Wilson

 Travis Homer

 Nyheim Hines

Many expected Mixon to be a cap casualty last offseason, until he agreed to reduce his salary in exchange for some guarantees. He's now scheduled for an $8.5 million cap hit in 2024, the final year of his contract, with the Bengals able to avoid $5.75 million of it if they trade/release Mixon this offseason. I think he'll stick around, but it's not a lock.

Kamara is the more interesting case, scheduled for an $18.76 million cap hit in 2024 and then $29.08 million in 2025. Much of that is money that's already been paid and can't be avoided, but there's also a bunch of non-guaranteed compensation, including a $10.2 million base salary and $1.6 million in bonuses for 2024. 

The Saints can push more of the dead cap charge into the future if they wait until June to trade/release Kamara, but that also likely would mean paying out a $1 million roster bonus this spring. The smart play, in my opinion, is to either keep Kamara around (he can still play, after all) or release him before the roster bonus applies. 

Cutting Kamara this spring doesn't help with the 2024 cap situation, but it would get him completely off the books thereafter... thus making it easier to move money for other players into 2025 and beyond. This is another conversation, but as much as some people talk about the current-year cap hit/savings, what really matters is the total amount of money that's actually paid out. Any decent GM can always mess with other contracts and create space in the short term even if releasing a specific player causes bonus money to accelerate as dead cap hit for the present year.

Initial 2024 PPR Rankings (Top 60) 📈

More so than with other positions, RB rankings figure to change a lot throughout the offseason. A lot of it feels like guess work after the first 12-15 guys, especially when dealing with impending free agents and rookies. The first week after the NFL Draft is when I start to have more confidence in my rankings, but it's still useful to have a go at it much earlier in the offseason. At this point, I'm mostly prioritizing talent over opportunity, because there are so many cases where we don't actually know what team a guy will be playing for (and/or who his teammates will be).

Guys like James Cook and Rachaad White make me nervous at this time of the year. They're good enough to keep starting jobs but not good enough to preclude their teams from bringing in similar/superior talent. If we played out 2024 with the rosters we're looking at today, I'd rank White higher than 12th and Cook higher than 18th. I'd also rank Austin Ekeler higher than 16th... if I knew he'd be returning to the Chargers with a new coaching staff and weak competition in the backfield. That might happen, in which case I'll probably be one of the people betting on a rebound. But there's also a solid chance Ekeler ends up in a more crowded backfield, and quite possibly with a team that doesn't offer as much TD upside as the Herbert/Harbaugh Chargers.

With the rookies, I'm mostly just guessing based on mock drafts and rankings I've seen. It sounds like there's little-to-no chance of a running back being taken in the first round this year, and Brooks/Corum/Benson are the names most often mentioned as potential Day 2 picks. I'm interested to see how my initial stab at these rankings compares to early ADP results from various best ball sites (stay tuned!).

Cumulative Backfield Production by Team

Per-Game RB Production (Week 18 Excluded)

2023 Statistics

Playing Time / Snaps

• Snap Sh = Percentage of team snaps taken in player's active games
• Pa Sn% = Percent of player's snaps that were either a pass attempt or sack
• Det Sn = Snaps on which the RB wasn't lined up in the backfield

Rushing Statistics

• YBC = Yards Before Contact (avg)
• YAC = Yards Afer Contact (avg)
• YAC% = Percentage of yards gained after contact
• BT = Broken Tackles
• T/BT = Touches per Broken Tackle (lower number = more frequent broken tackles)

Receiving Statistics

• Rts = Routes Run
• Rt/PS = Routes Run / Pass snaps (inverse of pass blocking rate)
• TPRR = Targets per Route Run
• YPRR = Yards per Route Run

Goal-Line Stats (Inside the 5-Yard Line)

• Carr + Tgt = Number of carries and targets from inside the 5
• Touch Sh = Percentage of team's goal-line touches (catches and carries)
• Carr Sh = Percentage of team's goal-line carries
• Tgt Sh = Percentage of team's goal-line targets