Film Review: An Unlikely Star

Cleveland vs. Jacksonville

Despite his good production in a tough matchup, you could tell Leonard Fournette wasn't healthy in this one. Why a team with playoff ambitions would put him out there against the Browns in the cold and snow is beyond me, but this team is nonetheless outsmarting most of the other ones. Conclude what you will about that.

Blake Bortles' ceiling is as a Joe Flacco type, but he deserves some credit for holding it together out there. He's doing fewer dumb things than he used to, and he takes advantage of the hand he's been dealt. Marqise Lee might be a league-winner in a lot of fantasy playoffs this year – he saw another nine targets in this one, and he faces Houston and San Francisco in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. That Dede Westbrook saw six targets in his pro debut is encouraging, but Keelan Cole is still ahead of him on the depth chart, and Allen Hurns will presumably be ahead, too, once he returns.

It's a shame that Duke Johnson hurt his shoulder in this game. He's such a good player. It would hurt DeShone Kizer's already perilous projection if Duke misses time. Kizer had incredibly difficult circumstances to deal with in this one and he of course wasn't productive, but I still think he's looked promising over the last two weeks.

If Kizer can right the ship, the return of Corey Coleman will have a lot to do with it. Hamstring issues will always be a black cloud over him, but when he's healthy he's one of the most talented receivers in the league. Not to imply the skill sets are comparable, but Coleman's raw athleticism is absolutely on the level of Odell Beckham. Turning 11 targets into 80 yards against the Jaguars in that weather, in his first game back from injury, is highly impressive. Unfortunately for him, the remaining schedule is just brutal.

Miami vs. Tampa Bay

How is Jay Cutler so bad? His first interception was ugly – DeVante Parker had single coverage from a safety on a slant route in the end zone, with the middle of the field absolutely empty. Instead of leading Parker toward the open space, he threw it behind him. That safety would have been absolutely unable to cover that slant toward the middle. Matt Moore is the better quarterback and Adam Gase is not long for this job.

Damien Williams doesn't have much wiggle, but he's fast in a straight line, has good anchor strength, runs with a hot motor, and catches the ball well. He really might not be much of a downgrade from Jay Ajayi, and in terms of pass-catching and big-play ability he might be an upgrade. The jury is out on Kenyan Drake – he predictably couldn't keep peeling off 40-yard runs every 13 carries, but seven carries isn't a big enough sample to judge at all. I'm still somewhat convinced he's just an off-the-bench runner, and his history of injuries limits the odds of his skill set developing into that of a true starter. Still, he should be a Jerious Norwood type of player at worst.

Jarvis Landry's transformation into an apparent touchdown machine is odd to witness, and it's difficult to tell whether there's any sustainability to it. His YPT of 5.3 is preposterously bad, but I'm glad to chalk up a lot of that to Jay. With six touchdowns in his last seven games, Landry is paradoxically in the midst of his second-best fantasy season despite his YPT standing 1.5 yards lower than his previous career low as a rookie. Parker's inconsistency is certainly frustrating, and it's making it difficult to stand by him as a prospect. He needs a new coaching staff at the very least, and maybe a change of scenery. Kenny Stills might be the best WR3 in the league, so Parker going elsewhere could set both up for true breakouts.

Ryan Fitzpatrick might be better than Jameis Winston right now, which certainly doesn't bode well for the latter's chances of avoiding bust status. It was heartening to see O.J. Howard get involved as a pass catcher in this one – even if Cameron Brate is good, Tampa harms itself whenever Howard is reduced to a blocker. He is absolutely one of the most talented tight ends ever to play in the NFL. They need to feed him. They also need to get Adam Humphries off the field. Chris Godwin is better now and will be much, much better in the imminent future.

Doug Martin didn't have a ton of room to work with in this one, but he also didn't look particularly spry. Trying to figure him out is exhausting. I'm pretty much done trying.

Chicago vs. Detroit

Matthew Stafford historically is a dubious projection when playing outside of Detroit, but with this fine game he now has two good efforts in a row on the road, and in the northern Midwest cold, no less. The Bears didn't make it easy on him, either, generating good pressure in the pass rush. He seems to have taken his game to a new level. The presence of Kenny Golladay helps – the big wideout provides a catch radius and downfield threat Detroit has lacked since Calvin Johnson's retirement. He has legitimate WR1 traits, even if Golden Tate is indefinitely designated as the WR1 in this offense.

It's felt for weeks now like Theo Riddick was encroaching on Ameer Abdullah's role as the lead runner, and this game marked an extension of that trend. Riddick's nine carries were his most since Week 2, and he actually played one more snap (30) than Abdullah. Abdullah probably won't lose his distinction as the top back, but this is a more level committee than it was a month ago. Given Abdullah's poor YPC and lack of pass-catching work, it might actually be Riddick who's preferable in PPR formats.

Adam Shaheen is a beast. It's so silly that Dion Sims ever played ahead of him, and the same is probably true for Zach Miller, good of a pass catcher as he is. That Shaheen has just eight targets on a team notoriously bereft of pass-catching talent is one of the many indicators that John Fox is long past his expiration date. At 6-foot-6, 278 pounds, Shaheen is nearly unprecedented for his combination of size and athleticism. You'd have to go back to Eric Green in the 90s to find something comparable, and he's the only one. My suspicion is that Shaheen is an even better athlete. He doesn't look like a tight end when he runs in the open field, and he makes defensive backs crumble upon contact. It's probably not a good bet to presume fantasy production from any Bears player but Jordan Howard right now, but if Shaheen stays healthy he should be an All Pro eventually.

Howard ran hard and effectively in this one, perhaps freshened by the bye week, but Detroit's run defense was not holding up well. You have to think they'll be vulnerable to Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon on Thanksgiving.

Minnesota vs. Rams

Jared Goff is good and Sean McVay appears to be the truth, but this marked another game where Goff failed to produce against a good defense. To be fair to Goff, it didn't help his day any when Cooper Kupp fumbled at the goal line to end a second quarter drive in what was a tied game at the time. And the Vikings defense is very good if it isn't great. Still, Goff has thrown 10 of his touchdowns against San Francisco, the Giants, and Houston, while totaling six touchdowns and four interceptions against Indianapolis, Washington, Dallas, Seattle, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Minnesota. I would argue that this might not be the case if Sammy Watkins were featured more often, and the Rams might not have a choice on that front with Robert Woods (shoulder) missing time.

Todd Gurley enjoyed a fruitful first drive, scoring at its conclusion, but it was all downhill from there as the Vikings defense clenched its jaws on the Rams. A carry in the second quarter was an example of Gurley's mediocre vision – on a 1st and 20 he had a sweep to the left that the Vikings immediately detected and sold out to stop. The Vikings over-committed to that side, leaving the right completely undefended, but Gurley ran into the sea of purple to his left anyway. Still, he's such a monster in the open field that it doesn't alter his status as an elite fantasy asset.

Latavius Murray has been productive lately, but in my opinion he hasn't done anything impressive in the process. He has a bit of momentum to him due to his size, and he runs with enough determination, but in this game his substantial gains seemed like easy ones for the most part. Luckily for him, he gets another favorable matchup against the Lions on Thanksgiving. I still would prefer McKinnon in fantasy, at least in PPR formats.

It's amazing to reflect on how many garbage quarterbacks this league has cycled through in the last few years when a player like Case Keenum was completely unwanted at the same time. He's probably no better than an average starter, but that he might even be that is quite a testament to how overlooked he was all this while. He repeatedly evaded pressure in this game to keep drives alive, and with two of the league's toughest covers at receiver, he should be able to keep going as a high-floor, modest-ceiling sort of producer.

Adam Thielen is clearly one of the league's best receivers, and his strong box score against a tough Rams defense was quite impressive. He almost had a second touchdown in the second quarter on an end-zone toss up that he couldn't quite hold on to. His slant-corner route in the third quarter faked out cornerback Blake Countess so badly he almost went to the ground. Stefon Diggs is the WR2 in this offense, but is a borderline WR1 talent in his own right and will have his blowup games too, perhaps against Detroit.

Houston vs. Arizona

I've been hard on Tom Savage and will likely resume that program once the Ravens annihilate him this week, but I have to admit, he played relatively well against a competent opponent in this game. He still showed poor pocket instincts, failing to detect a blitzing Budda Baker to his right on a play where Baker would end up completing a strip-sack. But on plays where Savage correctly read the defense and had ample time to throw, he did make a number of solid completions. With that said, I think he'll play badly enough against the Ravens that it results in the worst game in about a month for the otherwise resurgent DeAndre Hopkins, who as usual was quite impressive against Patrick Peterson in this game. You'd have to say Hopkins was the decisive victor in that matchup.

Lamar Miller really ran well in this one, and he looked like a wide receiver on his sideline touchdown catch. I think he's generally played a fair amount better than his 3.7 YPC on the year would imply. D'Onta Foreman's Achilles' tear is a bitterly disappointing injury that might screw up his career.

Adrian Peterson didn't look as good on the other side, but he didn't exactly play poorly. Benardrick McKinney repeatedly hit Peterson in the backfield, and his poor box score is otherwise rationalized easily enough since Houston has been the toughest fantasy matchup for running backs this year.

Like Savage, Blaine Gabbert surprised me with how well he held up in this one. He smartly bet on Larry Fitzgerald despite relatively good coverage from Kevin Johnson in the second quarter, throwing the ball up for Fitzgerald to win in the air, which used to be his calling card even though we don't see it as much these days. Fitzgerald has been superb the last two weeks.

Ricky Seals-Jones certainly made a big fantasy impact with his two touchdowns in this game, but that he only played eight snaps means he's probably not a serious fantasy consideration for now beyond a (very) long-shot stash in leagues with at least 14 teams. But the fact that he saw five targets on those eight snaps makes it appear as if the Cardinals specifically meant to target him on most of the snaps he logged, which could mean they have a fond evaluation of Seals-Jones. His first touchdown was actually against cornerback Johnathan Joseph on a simple out route. His second touchdown was also against a cornerback, this time Kevin Johnson. He was a disappointing player at Texas A&M, but he was widely regarded as the top wide receiver recruit of his high school class. Perhaps he was miscast all along. If he keeps getting opportunities, his pedigree could shine through.

New Orleans vs. Washington

Another excellent game from Kirk Cousins, who might have had an MVP-caliber season if Washington still had DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon around. The way he's scraped together top-notch production most weeks despite trying circumstances is impressive, and something I thought he wasn't capable of. The injury to Chris Thompson gives him yet another enormous burden, and there's only so much Cousins can take, but I just can't bet against him at the moment. As long as he has Vernon Davis, Jamison Crowder, and Josh Doctson – and a vaguely intact offensive line – I think this should work.

The question of whether Doctson would emerge as a standout starter for Washington was the same question as whether they would give him the opportunity to be one. At 6-foot-2, 202 pounds, Doctson might not have elite talent – his 4.50-second 40 and 6.84-second three-cone drill are merely above average, and his advanced age for a prospect (he's older than Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Devin Funchess, among others I don't feel like looking up) might limit his chances of emerging as a true WR1. But when you include his elite college production, 41-inch vertical, and 131-inch broad jump, you get a profile that strongly implies top-grade WR2 talent at the least, and a candidate to see multiple Pro Bowls. I would think of him as a better Marvin Jones, whatever that means to you. With Terrelle Pryor out of the picture, Doctson should safely project as a top-30 fantasy wideout in a Kirk Cousins offense, and an optimistic projection could put him in the top 20. Doctson very nearly had two touchdown catches in the first quarter, but both were narrow misses as he tangled with the corners for contested catches. Doctson has a brutal schedule the remainder of this year, though, potentially catching Janoris Jenkins twice along with Patrick Peterson, Aqib Talib, and the Chargers crew, and who knows if Cousins will be back next year.

Samaje Perine isn't great – I think Shonn Greene is his fairest comparison at this point – but this game at least showed what he can do when you let him get into a rhythm. He shows very good cutting ability for a runner around 235 pounds, but the speed is of course lacking and he would do well to run with more of an anchor. He should probably lay off the arm curls for a while this offseason. With Thompson out, though, the backfield should be Perine's in almost all running situations. Byron Marshall has a history of playing wide receiver, though, so he's otherwise a logical replacement for Thompson's passing down work.

Drew Brees finally had to get off the couch in this one, and he did about what you would expect him to. That he's disappointed this year in fantasy was obviously due to pass attempt volume rather than quality of play, and this was one of the few times this year where the Saints needed him to throw the ball all game. It sure looks like Alvin Kamara has taken the pass-catching work of Willie Snead, and it doesn't look like there's any room for growth in Snead's projection as long as that's the case.

Chargers vs. Buffalo

I'm not sure what to say about this one. Nate Peterman clearly was not ready to see the field, and the magnitude of misjudgment it takes to start him over Tyrod Taylor is something that makes me skeptical that it was even Sean McDermott's call to make. He seems like a smart schemer and a coach who generally gets his team ready to play, but only a hideously poor talent evaluator could consider benching Taylor for Peterman. Even if they just wanted to evaluate Peterman, how is it fair to him to do so in a west coast game against one of the league's best pass defenses and most feared pass rushes? The Taylor benching strikes me as a corollary of the decisions to remove Sammy Watkins, Marcell Dareus, and Ronald Darby – belligerent fits of a new front office with an excess of hubris. Or maybe these decisions, all bad, really are the will of McDermott. I don't know.

We do at least know that LeSean McCoy still has it, and that he put up such great production without a passing game moving the offense is quite impressive, even if the Chargers' run defense isn't good.

Melvin Gordon might have showed a little more burst in this one than the last couple weeks. He still didn't look great. I have no evidence that he lost something in his microfracture surgery, but I cannot believe this is the same player who averaged 7.8 yards per carry in his college career. Austin Ekeler looks like the better player to me at the moment.

The Bills will be a team to target with slot receivers until further notice. Keenan Allen played well in this game, but a large part of his production was the result of repeatedly catching linebackers in coverage. Leonard Johnson is otherwise a very slow slot corner – even Allen was running past him.

Oakland and New England in Mexico City

Rex Burkhead was off to a nice start in this one, catching two passes before fumbling after gaining about five yards on his first carry. He would play just ten snaps the rest of the game. Dion Lewis appeared to poach snaps at both Burkhead and James White's expense, with Lewis' four targets marking a shift from a previous role where he basically was limited to the run-specialist function originally envisioned for Mike Gillislee this year. I wouldn't bank on Lewis holding on to that pass-catching work going forward since White and Burkhead are so capable, but we do know Lewis can do it if given the opportunity.

It feels like the chalk misses often with fantasy football, but Brandin Cooks came through as expected in a setting where it was almost impossible to fail. Oakland's tall corners were uniquely ill-suited to covering Cooks, and the thin air made his quickness even more difficult for the defense to manage. Cooks is poised to finish strong with at least eight targets in five of his last six games. Danny Amendola unsurprisingly did his best damage when Oakland went into zone coverage. Phillip Dorsett wasn't officially targeted, but he was targeted in the end zone on New England's first drive, narrowly missing a touchdown catch on a play where Oakland was called for illegal contact. Dorsett seems to be little more than a decoy in this offense, however.

Derek Carr had a disastrous game given the favorability of the matchup, though not all of the blame can be put on him. His interception bounced off the shoulder pads of Johnny Holton, popping the ball up for the secondary to leisurely pick off. Michael Crabtree had a drop on what would have a been a sideline first down in the second quarter. Amari Cooper's touchdown catch was actually a very good play, turning a tight out route into a touchdown by stopping his momentum on a dime and turning to reach for the goal line even with the defender in close proximity the whole while. Seth Roberts truly may be the worst wide receiver in the NFL, and the worst I've seen in some time.

Marshawn Lynch has looked quite good to me all year – he has one of the most impressive 4.0 yards per carry I've witnessed. With the Raiders at 4-6, I don't see what they're saving him for if not a desperation push for the playoffs starting now. Even in games where they didn't fall behind this year they've shown an unwillingness to give him a big workload, perhaps to save him for the playoffs. They won't see them if they don't get him more carries. And probably not even then, of course.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia

Dez Bryant probably hasn't declined physically at this point, but his play nonetheless hasn't been very good. He probably should have had a third-down reception on Dallas' first drive, but couldn't quite hold on to the ball. Although, he was also clearly held on the play, for just about all of the play. If Malcolm Jenkins bumps helmets with Tom Brady like he did Dak on Dallas' second drive, he gets a 15-yard penalty. Ronald Darby would commit clear pass interference against Bryant a couple plays later, and no flag there, either.

Dak obviously had a disastrous game, but he was playing well in the first two drives before Terrance Williams dropped a pass that turned into an interception on the third drive. Two drives later, Bryant dropped what would have been a chain-moving third down pass on the sideline as he saw the safety closing in. Dak started falling apart from that point, letting the rush rattle him and missing his targets. I can't blame him for getting disoriented behind a bad offensive line while throwing to trash receivers, including Bryant lately. Dallas needs to get Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams off the field and replace them with Ryan Switzer and Brice Butler, respectively.

Alfred Morris ran rather well, but he doesn't get obvious passing situation looks, which sets his playing time behind Rod Smith when Dallas isn't running out the clock. Neither looks capable of providing predictable production in this offense, though Morris would project nicely if Dallas has a lead.

I suppose he'll see a greater share of the work when games are more competitive, but it's hard to see how Jay Ajayi is going to be anything more than a hit-or-miss RB2 in this offense when players like Corey Clement and Kenjon Barner are getting red-zone touches on Philadelphia's opening drives. LeGarrette Blount appears reduced to a desperation flex play at this point.

Nelson Agholor is quite talented and should have big seasons ahead, but for this year it just doesn't look like there's a role for him to hammer out more than about 800 yards in this offense. That's particularly true with Alshon Jeffery hitting his stride in the past month, establishing himself as the co-No. 1 target along with tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz's invisibility in this one was puzzling but probably meaningless.