This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong wide receiver after the consensus top-5 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
Upside
Justin Jefferson has been the most productive receiver in the league on a per-game basis the last three seasons. In his last two healthy seasons, Jefferson averaged 176 targets, 118 catches, 1,713 yards and nine touchdowns. Even last year, in 10 games, part of which was with backup quarterbacks, his numbers prorated to 17 games were excellent — 170 targets, 116 catches, 1,825 yards and eight TDs. Even when Jefferson played the last four games with career backup Nick Mullens, he averaged 11 targets, 7.5 catches, 119 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will compete to start at quarterback for the Vikings this season. Regardless of who wins the job, the fifth-year superstar has shown he can excel without a great quarterback. It
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong wide receiver after the consensus top-5 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
Upside
Justin Jefferson has been the most productive receiver in the league on a per-game basis the last three seasons. In his last two healthy seasons, Jefferson averaged 176 targets, 118 catches, 1,713 yards and nine touchdowns. Even last year, in 10 games, part of which was with backup quarterbacks, his numbers prorated to 17 games were excellent — 170 targets, 116 catches, 1,825 yards and eight TDs. Even when Jefferson played the last four games with career backup Nick Mullens, he averaged 11 targets, 7.5 catches, 119 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will compete to start at quarterback for the Vikings this season. Regardless of who wins the job, the fifth-year superstar has shown he can excel without a great quarterback. It would seem the low end of Jefferson's upside is 1,600 yards. That level likely would put him in the top-3 receivers in the league.
Downside
As a rookie, Jefferson posted 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. However, Jefferson had Kirk Cousins as his quarterback his entire career. We're not sure who the starting quarterback will be this year. Darnold has completed fewer than 60 percent of passes during his career and first-round pick McCarthy does not have high-level arm talent. Even if Jefferson doesn't reach the lofty numbers of the last few years, the worst-case scenario could be a repeat of his rookie numbers. For that to happen, the receiver's per game yardage would fall from more than 100 yards per game to about 80.
The Bottom Line
There is likely to be some type of dropoff for Jefferson due to the loss of Cousins. Regardless, a combination of exceptional talent and heavy target volume cannot be ignored. A floor season for Jefferson is still likely to make him a top-6 receiver. This may be the last year in a long time that Jefferson will come at a slight discount in drafts. He is one of a small number of players who can be the overall No. 1 receiver.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
Upside
Amon-Ra St. Brown has improved each year of his career. It was amazing to see him post 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns largely as a slot receiver in 2023. St. Brown was targeted 163 and 146 times the last two seasons, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is excellent at using the middle of the field against a league that plays zone defense 73 percent of the time. Jared Goff has often been at his best when targeting the middle of the field. As the No. 1 receiver on the Lions, St. Brown would simply need to match last year's production to likely finish as a top-5 wide receiver. It's difficult to project the wideout to have a substantially better season than he did last year. Regardless, that level of production represents great upside.
Downside
There's no doubt that St. Brown's 2023 season was incredible. However, with Goff at quarterback in 2022 as well, St. Brown had 17 fewer targets than last season, but the production was far less. The 2022 numbers fell 354 yards and four touchdowns below his 2023 season. It's possible that last season was a perfect storm for both St. Brown and the Lions offense. Also, if the defense improves, the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery could be leaned upon to shorten games with the rushing attack. There is a world where St. Brown falls back to the 145-target range, making 2023 a career year. As a result, we could see St. Brown fall short of 1,300 yards. That would make him more of a top-10 receiver than a top-5 one.
The Bottom Line
The beauty of St. Brown's game was his incredible scoring floor last year. He had one game with fewer than 49 yards and just three games with fewer than 70 yards. That scoring floor has a lot of value at a position that has significant weekly volatility. Even though the production in 2023 was excellent, the chances of St. Brown leveling up again and moving into the elite tier of 2024 WRs seems small. It also seems there is a good chance his yardage drops a bit from last year. Overall, he is well worth a pick in the middle of the first round.
A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
Upside
After Week 8 of last season, A.J. Brown was coming off a streak of six games in which he posted at least 127 yards. The star was on pace for 1,995 yards and 13 touchdowns. The rest of the way, the Eagles fell apart. Jalen Hurts seemed less than 100 percent healthy. Former offensive coordinator Brian Johnson had no answers when defenses took away the deep passing attack. Brown may not have that (nearly) 2,000-yard season in his range of outcomes. That said, in his two years in Philadelphia, the receiver has averaged 152 targets, 96 receptions, 1,476 yards and nine touchdowns. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible that Brown is optimized in a way that utilizes him as one of the few megastar receivers in the game. Unlike other elite pass catchers, Brown can win in almost every conceivable way. It is not a stretch to see the wideout post 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns. In that scenario, he would compete to be the No. 1 overall receiver.
Downside
The second half of the 2023 season was the worst-case scenario for Brown. In the last nine games, he averaged 5.4 receptions, 57 yards and 0.1 touchdowns. Even though it might be easy to explain it away, it happened. There is no guarantee that Jalen Hurts will get back on track as a passer. It's possible that Kellen Moore doesn't optimize the passing attack. If the situation in Philly is similar to last season, Brown could finish with a 1,200-yard season and be a top-10 receiver.
The Bottom Line
It would appear that the Eagles' offense has far too much talent to fall flat, as it did down the stretch last year. The heavy target volume that Brown has had the last two years should remain. Last year's coaching staff looked outmatched, and it seems unlikely that Moore will have similar issues. Brown is an elite player who is not being drafted like a wide receiver who has averaged 1,476 yards the last two years. That recent production is likely a baseline. Don't be surprised if Brown moves closer to the 1,700-yard range in 2024.
The Final Word
Clearly, it's difficult to go wrong with any of these choices. Jefferson is likely to have the worst quarterback situation of these three receivers. However, the Vikings' top receiver is nearly impossible to cover, and he's had three years of elite production. I recommend the floor/ceiling combo, making Jefferson the top choice in this group. My second choice is Brown. The consecutive years of 1,400-plus yards makes him a player with one of the highest floors among wide receivers. Also, it wouldn't surprise me if Brown competed for the No. 1 overall receiver spot. St. Brown has one season of production at the levels where the elite receivers perform, and while he could repeat last year's production, it's difficult to see a ceiling that goes much higher than that.
