2024 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: Healthy and Ready to Rumble

This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.

This is the first article in a four-part series on breakout candidates for 2024. It's meant to be a broad survey of the possibilities, not necessarily a Draft These Guys list. We'll have more narrowly focused stuff along those lines closer to the start of the regular season, diving deep to figure out which breakout candidates come out ahead in cost-benefit analyses.

In fact, some of the guys discussed in these articles will be players I consider overvalued, i.e., fantasy drafters are overestimating the likelihood and/or extent of a breakout. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one such example. I'll list him in a later article because he fits a lot of the criteria for a potential breakout — early draft pick, entering his second season, new coaching staff — and I can't deny the possibility it happens. However, I'm not a fan of his early summer ADP and would need it to drop by a round or three before personally considering him a smart bet.

At the end of each player's write-up you'll see his current ADP (based on best-ball data from Underdog and Drafters) and my opinion on whether he's a good, bad or neutral pick at said draft position. The write-up itself will tend to focus more on positives than negatives, explaining what might go right and lead to the player reaching a previously unseen level of fantasy production.

I'll separate the players into four categories that account for a vast majority of breakouts. The first group, found in this article, is players that have mostly been held back by injuries and might've already taken a leap forward if they'd enjoyed better health. The second article will focus on second-year pros, the third article on third-year pros. And then the fourth article will look at players in new schemes for 2024, be it because they changed teams or because their team hired a new coach/coordinator.

A vast majority of breakouts fall into at least one of these four categories — and often more than one of them — though by the end of the season we'll probably see a couple of cases that don't fit any of the aforementioned classifications. Last year there was David Njoku, who put up mediocre numbers for most of the season but ultimately smashed his previous career highs thanks to a torrid four-week stretch in December catching passes from a 38-year-old Joe Flacco. There was also Evan Engram, who didn't really do anything different from previous years but had 61 targets and four TDs over the final six weeks while WR Christian Kirk was out with a sports hernia. And, of course, we can't forget Raheem Mostert, who scored 21 TD on 234 touches after hitting paydirt on just five of his 212 touches the previous year.

For breakout candidates that fit more than one of the four  aforementioned categories, I'll classify them under whichever topic I consider most relevant. Anthony Richardson, for example, lands in this article rather than the one for second-year pros because he was on track for big-time fantasy numbers last year before his injury. The fact he's young and still improving also matters, but that wasn't the main thing that held him back in fantasy terms last season — it was the shoulder injury.

If you're wondering where rookies are... they aren't included. I've sort of always viewed them as a separate category, lacking any established level of production from which to go off of. That would also be a pretty boring exercise, because I'd just be listing all the guys that were early draft picks and then my personal favorites among the Day 2 picks (FWIW, I like RB Kimani Vidal, WR Troy Franklin and TE Theo Johnson).

Anyway, let's get down to business and look at our first group of breakout candidates for 2024...

The Candidates

• QB Anthony Richardson

C.J. Stroud may be the cream of the crop from the 2023 rookie class when it comes to wins and losses, but Richardson almost certainly would've outscored his division rival in fantasy if he'd stayed healthy for 14 or 15 games. Stroud averaged 0.28 fantasy points across 968 snaps, while Richardson produced 0.42 on 173 plays. Even though there's no way Richardson can maintain that rate over a full season, it's promising/impressive that he had four rushing TDs and three passing scores while playing two full games and less than half of two others.

Think Cam Newton, only with 4.44 speed instead of 4.56. Richardson may not be quite as polished as Newton was at the same juncture, but Newton never really improved his passing and still finished top four among QBs for fantasy scoring in four of his first five seasons. Richardson might actually become better over time, which is scary to think about even if he's starting from a slightly lower point than Newton.

Early ADP: Round 5/6 (58.6)   /  ADP Verdict: Fairly Priced

• RB Breece Hall

You might argue that Hall already broke out over the final six weeks of last season, when he averaged 116 yards from scrimmage and scored five touchdowns. He even finished as RB2 for PPR scoring, though the gap between him and RB24 (De'Von Achane) was smaller than the gap between Hall and Christian McCaffrey. Expect that gap to close in a big way this year, with Hall enjoying a normal offseason rather than rehabbing an ACL tear and now running behind a much-improved offensive line. 

He wasn't even the best version of himself last year — at least not until late in the season — on top of the problems he dealt with regarding QB and O-line play. This might fall in the 'no duh' category, but I think it's worth reiterating because there are so few potential difference-makers at RB and Hall will be one of them if he and Aaron Rodgers both stay relatively healthy. That makes Hall the upside fantasy pick in the middle of Round 1, though the available WRs perhaps feel safer because their position has a lower injury rate in general.

Early ADP: Round 1 (8.0)   /  ADP Verdict: Underpriced

• RB Javonte Williams

This one admittedly feels a bit icky after watching Williams play last season. The stats weren't pretty (3.6 YPC, five totals TDs), and even to the naked eye he didn't look like the same guy that averaged 4.4 YPC and 6.0 YPT across 246 touches as a rookie. On the other hand, it's impressive Williams even managed to play 16 games after suffering an ACL tear, LCL tear and "posterolateral corner damage" Week 4 of the previous season.

He shouldn't be written off entirely, as it's common for good players to struggle or suffer re-injuries in the first year back from major surgery before eventually continuing with productive careers. If the 24-year-old regains his burst, there's potential for something like 240 carries and 50 catches even in a committee, considering 60.3 percent of Denver's plays last season were either carries or targets for running backs. Sean Payton has a lengthy track record of peppering his RBs with passes, including last year when the position accounted for a league-high 32.1 percent of Denver's total targets (no other offense was above 26.5 percent).

Early ADP: Round 9 (103.5)   /  ADP Verdict: Fairly Priced

• WR Christian Watson

Jayden Reed seems like the safe bet among Green Bay's pass catchers to have a good season, and Dontayvion Wicks is my favorite draft pick of the bunch given current ADPs. However, Watson is probably the one with the most potential to truly emerge from the pack as more than a WR2/3 type for fantasy. He's taller and faster than all the others, and we've already seen two short-ish stretches in which he looked like a legit No. 1 receiver or at least right on the cusp of becoming one (Nov. 2022, Nov. 2023).

The biggest problem so far is that injuries — mostly to his hamstrings — have cost Watson 11 games and limited his snaps in a bunch of others. The encouraging part, in addition to his tantalizing size/speed combo, is that 953 snaps through two seasons have yielded 1,124 yards from scrimmage (including 91 rushing) and 14 TDs (two on the ground). Seven wide receivers played more than 953 snaps in 2023 alone, and while that may not be a realistic target for Watson, he at least could reach 850 if the Packers figure out how to keep his hammies in working order.

Early ADP: Round 7/8 (83.5)  /  ADP Verdict: Fairly Priced

• WR Wan'Dale Robinson

A 2022 second-round pick, Robinson came on strong midway through his rookie season, including nine catches for 100 yards during the Week 11 game in which he suffered an ACL tear. He then missed the first two weeks of 2023 and didn't do much for a couple months thereafter, but he was much better on the other side of a Week 13 bye, averaging 4.8 catches for 52.0 yards on 6.6 targets over the final five games (with three carries for 60 yards and a TD). The 5-foot-8 slot man is unlikely to ever produce huge yardage totals, but he might get something like 100 targets and 15 carries while hauling in 75-to-80 percent of those passes.

Actually, a look at his first two years combined shows what he might be capable of in a single season, with Robinson having caught 83 of 109 targets (76.1 percent) for 752 yards and two TDs, plus 11 carries for 86 yards and another score (across 870 snaps and 654 routes). The 23-year-old will need to at least slightly improve his target rate per route to enter WR3 range, but that's possible even with Malik Nabers in town given the Giants' lack of skill-position depth otherwise. It helps that Robinson shouldn't be too sensitive to poor QB play, thanks to his low aDOT (5.2) and high catch rate. He's relying on screens, drags, hitches, quick outs, end-arounds, etc., though 4.44 speed suggests he might also be useful for the occasional deep shot 

Early ADP: Round 15/16 (181.4)    /  ADP Verdict: Very Underpriced

• WR Rashod Bateman

The word 'breakout' may be aggressive in this case, but I like Bateman's chances to have his best season yet and maybe establish WR4 or FLEX value. Ravens brass has sent strong signals this offseason about deploying Bateman as the No. 2 receiver, including a two-year contract extension and verbal hints that a Lisfranc injury from 2022 impacted him in 2023.

As a rookie first-round pick in 2021, Bateman missed the first five weeks of the season while recovering from groin surgery and ultimately played just six games alongside Lamar Jackson before the QB suffered a season-ending ankle injury. In 2022, Bateman caught eight passes for 225 yards and two TDs over the first three games but then injured his foot Week 4 and landed on IR a month later. His rehab from that Lisfranc injury (and subsequent surgery) stretched into summer 2023, and Bateman then spent most of the season in a rotation with Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor. 

Beckham is gone now and Agholor a year older (31), with fourth-round pick Devontez Walker and return specialist Deonte Harty being the only new non-UDFA blood in Baltimore's WR room. Bateman, meanwhile, is 24 years old and now enjoying a normal offseason rather than rehabbing from major foot surgery. The third option in a run-first offense won't put up huge numbers, but something like 700-800 yards and 5-6 TDs is in play, with the ability to go a bit higher if WR Zay Flowers or TE Mark Andrews misses a lot of games.

Early ADP: Round 15/16 (180.8)  /  ADP Verdict: Slightly Underpriced 

• TE Kyle Pitts

Kirk Cousins joining Atlanta is the obvious headline, but I also found it extremely interesting earlier this offseason when we learned more about the extent of the tight end's injury problems in 2023. It turns out his season-ending knee injury in 2022 was more serious than reports at the time suggested — requiring PCL surgery in addition to the known MCL problems — and he ended up missing the entire 2023 offseason up until training camp. While Pitts ultimately played all 17 games, multiple Atlanta coaches dropped hints about the tight end not being at full strength, with Pitts himself clarifying that he didn't deal with pain during the season but did notice that his knee wasn't functioning like it had in the past (per ESPN).

He's still only 23 years old, and now he'll have a normal offseason without injury rehab, plus the benefit of playing with a quality QB and a playcaller other than Arthur Smith for the first time. It's a make-or-break year, and there are plenty of positives in his track record — 12 TDs in eight games his final season at Florida,  a 4.44 40 time, his 1,000-yard rookie season at age-20/21, etc. — to suggest Pitts will emerge from the ultimatum successful.

Early ADP: Rounds 5/6 (58.7)    /  ADP Verdict: Underpriced