College Football Picks: ACC Championship Virginia vs Duke
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While certainly not the matchup we all expected with teams picked to finish sixth and 14th in the ACC during the preseason, Virginia and Duke will square off in Charlotte with playoff implications for quite a few teams. The Cavaliers enter Saturday 10-2 overall, going 9-3 ATS as many bettors (myself included) have doubted them all year. The over hit in each of their first five games, and they next seven have all gone under. Duke is 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS and the over cashed nine times.
Virginia vs Duke Betting Odds for ACC Championship
Spread: Virginia -3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Duke +4.5 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 57.5 (DratKings Sportsbook); Under 57.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Virginia -180 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Duke +155 (BetMGM)
The spread is really starting to take off after opening at (-2.5) and sitting there for most of the early part of the week. The (-3.5) noted above is juiced, and I'd expect it to rise to at least (-4). It's unfortunately above the key numbers we would prefer to target, so by kickoff, I don't think we'll be searching sites for a field goal or less.
The moneyline has taken off too, as Virginia could have been had at (-130) earlier in the week. This is great news if you're backing a Duke upset.
Oddly, the total has been consistent all week.
Virginia vs Duke Betting Picks for ACC Championship
I'm not touching the total here, given the two sides' current polar opposite trends. Both teams can score in bunches, I just don't feel confident Duke will.
This line didn't make a lot of sense when it came out, and even with it ticking up, I still don't think it makes sense. It's simply the fact that Virginia beat Duke in Durham two weeks ago by a 34-17 margin, but it certainly starts there.
There's just a massive disparity between these defenses. The Cavaliers are surging here, allowing just 16.2 ppg over the last six after surrendering 23.8 ppg in their first six (skewed by Coastal Carolina getting just seven). The big difference between them is against the pass, where Virginia is 43rd and Duke 131st. I'm really struggling to find a path for Duke to be more competitive. They are going to need to outscore UVA, and the Cavs' defense won't allow for that.
Sure, you have to expect a better showing from Duke, and they did intercept Chandler Morris twice previously. Mistakes could keep them in this early and build momentum. But Morris also topped 300 yards against them, and the Cavaliers, led by J'Mari Taylor, are surging on the ground too, scoring 28 touchdowns overall and averaging 194.5 yards over the last four.
Virginia vs Duke Expert Pick: Virginia -3.5 (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Virginia vs Duke Predictions for ACC Championship
One interesting tidbit I found going through the numbers here was sacks. Virginia is tied for 27th with 30 sacks on the season, and the one common theme was that they didn't record a single sack in either of their losses. They got to Duke QB Darian Mensah four times in the regular season. Safe to say getting to him at least once Saturday evening is paramount.
Speaking of Mensah, have ACC defenses figured him out? He still has a stellar 28:4 TD:INT ratio overall, but his play down the stretch has been a touch uneven, completing 62.7 percent of his passes over the last four games, averaging 219.5 ypg. In his first eight, he completed 69.7 percent and averaged 321.5 ypg.
In the end, Virginia's balance will be too much for Duke to contain for four quarters. I'd be comfortable playing the rising line to (-6.5).
Virginia 36 - Duke 21
Virginia vs Duke Player Props for Saturday, December 6
Todd Pelino, K, Duke under 6.5 points
Pelino has just 17 field goal attempts all season, multiple attempts against just one ACC opponent, and hasn't made two in a game since Week 3. If that trend plays, Duke would need four touchdowns to get over this number, maybe more.
J'Mari Taylor, RB, Virginia anytime touchdown
It won't add a ton of juice, but toss it in at places like Underdog and Prize Picks. Taylor has 14 TDs on the year, has failed to score in just three games and gashed the Blue Devils previously for 7.4 ypc and two scores. His rushing prop (over 89.5) is interesting. It's a large number, but he's got the volume to do it, averaging 19.3 carries over the last nine.
Nate Sheppard, RB, Duke under 91.5 rushing yards
Lots of reasons to like this one for me. Virginia is 21st against the run, allowing only 3.3 ypc. If we're buying the Cavalier blowout narrative, Duke's going to be forced to pass, keeping his carry total down. Further aiding that, Anderson Castle has been more involved of late, earning 25 carries in the last two after just 16 in the previous three. The Cavs held Sheppard to 43 yards on 12 carries previously
Darian Mensah, QB, Duke over 35.5 pass attempts
Correlation play to Sheppard not rushing as frequently. He threw 35 times against Virginia last time and has been under 30 just twice all year.
