This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Sun Bowl Picks: Washington vs. Louisville
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The Louisville Cardinals (8-4) and the Washington Huskies (6-6) will tangle in El Paso on New Year's Eve, and the game sets up as one of the most interesting matchups in the bowl season. Like most of the bowl teams, Lousiville and Washington are coping with transfers and opt-outs. There are two pivotal changes at quarterback, but most bases are covered for the missing production on both squads. Louisville and Washington are both eager to make a statement, as the Huskies will try to cap off the season with a win following a disappointing inaugural journey in the Big 10. Louisville will also try to garner some momentum for a program that consistently falls just shy of ACC Championship competition. The kickoff for the Sun Bowl is at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Washington vs. Louisville Betting Odds for Sun Bowl
Spread: Louisville -1 (Caesars Sportsbook), Washington +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 49.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 49.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville -112 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Washington -100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The line started with Louisville as a -5.5 favorite, but transfer and opt-out announcements have narrowed the gap to within two points. The projected total has sunk alongside the narrowing, while the moneylines illustrate Vegas' predictions of a close game.
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Washington vs. Louisville Betting Picks for Sun Bowl
To begin, we will take a look at the signal-callers for both teams. Demond Williams is the go-to guy for Washington after Will Rogers' benching, and he went 17-of-20 for 201 yards and a touchdown against a stout Oregon defense. He seems to have the advantage over Louisville's Harrison Bailey, who takes over for Tyler Shough (opt-out). Bailey was once a highly touted prospect but has mostly played backup during stints with Tennessee and UNLV before joining the Cardinals. I think quarterback play will dictate the outcome of this contest, and a lot will depend on how Bailey performs. The Huskies have every confidence in Williams, who is their QB of the future and has more real-time experience than his opponent. Both defenses are solid but not spectacular, and both Jeff Brohm and Jedd Fisch promote high-flying pass-first approaches. Both teams have standout rushers who can open up the passing lanes, so rather than make a guess with the narrow spread, I'm going to take the Over. You could take the Over and win over 60 percent of your bets during bowl season. But I think the final number here will be quite high.
Washington vs. Louisville Expert Pick: Over 49.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Washington vs. Louisville Predictions for Sun Bowl
Isaac Brown and Jonah Coleman will anchor both teams, and Brown will be critical for Bailey's comfortability factor. He won't have Ja'Corey Brooks (opt-out) to throw to, and despite the return of Caulin Lacy, Bailey will get harassed by the Huskies immediately. The Cards will have to lean on Brown to keep the offense steady, and the Huskies will be prepared with a defensive scheme that ranked in the Top 25 in offensive YPA. Demond Williams has his full complement of receivers to target. Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson are elite targets who will have plenty of opportunities to get open. Both could have monster totals if this game turns into a shoot-out. Again, I think our wager depends entirely on Bailey. I believe he will have a better game than most expect because Shough's departure is a big reason why the Vegas numbers skewed wildly with money flowing to Washington. If Louisville can avoid three-and-outs and protect effectively, we should have no problem getting to the Over.
