Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Best Bets
The first round of the FBS playoffs end with the matchup that seems to anger the most sports talking heads. As they suggest, the college football playoffs are only for well-heeled programs rooted for by privileged fan bases, and there is no room for underdogs, and certainly not a second Group of Five team. Well, Virginia blew it against Duke, James Madison is here, and I think it's cool. The Dukes visit the Ducks of Oregon, the five seed, to close out the first round.
Now, I am not here to say you should expect an upset. Oregon is better than James Madison, and Oregon is at home. However, bigger upsets have happened, including this season, and this isn't really about whether or not James Madison can win. It's about whether the Ducks can cover a sizeable spread.
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Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Betting Odds
Spread: Oregon -20.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), James Madison +21 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 45.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 46.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Oregon -1,800 (DraftKings Sportsbook), James Madison +1,100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
As would be expected, the Ducks are heavy favorites. Oregon is favored by three touchdowns, in essence, and of course, the totals offered up combined with that indicate the feeling is James Madison won't score all that many points. If the Dukes lost by two touchdowns, that would be a decisive defeat, but it would beat the spread comfortably.
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Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Betting Picks
First, allow me to give some love to James Madison. The Dukes, under UCLA's next head coach Bob Chesney, lost its second game of the season, a 28-14 defeat on the road against Louisville. Otherwise, James Madison won every game and rose to 24th in SP+. The Dukes rank 22nd offensively and 27th defensively, both of which are impressive. In terms of raw numbers, and granted it was against a relatively easy schedule, JMU's defense allowed a mere 76.2 rushing yards and 15.8 points per game. This is a good team, and it has a running back named Wayne Knight, which is fun.
Of course, the Ducks only gave up 14.8 points per game, and that was against a Big Ten schedule. Oregon's only loss came at home, but it was against Indiana, the top seed in the playoffs and the FBS' only undefeated program. The Ducks are fourth in SP+, 13th offensively and fifth defensively. Dakorien Moore is a game-time decision after missing Oregon's last four games with a knee injury, but Oregon did just fine without its second-best receiving option.
Both teams are dealing with coaching tumult. Chesney is heading to UCLA, and while I imagine he's geared up for a playoff game, so far teams dealing with coaching changes have scuffled in bowls. However, Oregon is about to lose both its offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching gigs.
If you told me the 24th-ranked team in the country upside the fourth-ranked team in the country on the road, I'd be surprised. If you told me it lost by fewer than three touchdowns, I would not be surprised. There is the concern that James Madison's impressive resume was built on comfortably handling so-so opposition, and it won't matter as much against Oregon. That being said, a three-touchdown spread could easily be tied into the narrative, the one that has yielded so many anti-James Madison hot takes. Wisconsin and USC lost by fewer than 20 points in Eugene this season. I'd say the Dukes are better than either of those teams. There's precedent.
Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Best Bet: James Madison +21 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Betting Predictions
I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring game. If my prediction proves wrong, it'll be because James Madison's run defense doesn't hold up. The Ducks did average 218.4 rushing yards per game, even though Makhi Hughes got injured very early in the season. I only feel like Oregon fans will be sweating this one because of expectations. "This isn't as comfortable as it was supposed to be," that kind of thing. James Madison won't be one drive away from an upset as the game winds down, but I expect it to be competitive in the fourth quarter.
Oregon 27, James Madison 14
Oregon vs. James Madison CFP First Round Player Props for Saturday, December 20
Jordon Davison, RB, Oregon – Anytime Touchdown (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Davison is the touchdown getter among Oregon running backs, and he's -125 to find the end zone in this game. He scored 13 touchdowns this season, and I will grant you three of them came against Montana State. However, only three times did Davison fail to find the end zone. I know James Madison has a tough run defense, but this isn't about yardage. It's about getting the ball over the goal line.
Alonza Barnett, QB, James Madison – Under 141.5 passing yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yes, 142 passing yards is not exactly a lofty number to have to hit. That being said, the Ducks allowed a mere 144.3 passing yards per game, and even if it wasn't the toughest collection of passers, that includes road games and plenty of matchups with bowl teams. Barnett kept the JMU offense moving, but he averaged 194.8 passing yards per game. There were four games this season where he didn't surpass 141.5 passing yards, and two more where he barely did that. The Dukes could be more competitive than expected, while Barnett also doesn't manage to throw for over 141.5 passing yards.
