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College Football Picks: Notre Dame vs. Duke Best Bets
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Notre Dame vs. Duke Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Notre Dame -5.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Duke +6 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 51.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -210 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Duke +180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Fighting Irish are coming off a gut-wrenching loss against Ohio State last weekend on their home field, falling 17-14. Not only did Notre Dame lose, but it lost on the final play in regulation to spoil the team's unbeaten season. All is not lost, however, and Notre Dame can bounce back with a win on the road against a ranked team, grabbing a bunch of respect back immediately.
The Blue Devils stunned the world in the season opener on Labor Day night, topping Clemson 28-7 for one of the biggest wins in Duke football history. Head coach Mike Elko has brought toughness and intensity to Durham, winning eight regular-season games and a bowl last season, and the team is 4-0 this season, with a signature win. Can they stop Notre Dame, another ranked team, from moving to within one game of bowl eligibility before the leaves have even turned full colors in Durham?
It's going to be difficult for Duke. QB Sam Hartman has completed 70.4% of his pass attempts for 1,236 yards, 14 touchdowns and no picks through five games, and his favorite target has been wide receiver Chris Tyree. He has just nine receptions, but he also has a team-best 241 yards, 26.8 yards per reception and two touchdowns. Freshman WR Jaden Greathouse has also been, well, great, going for 166 receiving yards and three touchdowns, jelling nicely with Hartman. The run game is also very balanced and very deep, led by RB Audric Estime, who has gobbled up 7.7 yards per attempt with five rushing scores, accounting for half of Notre Dame's touchdowns on the ground. Hartman is also second with two rushing scores, although no one will mistake him for a dual-threat option.
Notre Dame is 4-0 SU as a favorite while covering three of those games. That includes a 45-24 win at NC State in the team's last visit to the Tar Heel State back on Sept. 9 in a game delayed by lightning and a deluge of rain. The Irish won't have to deal with the weather Saturday, as the conditions will be cool and clear at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Duke is 3-0 at home, covering both of its games against FBS teams at Wallace Wade. It is also coming off a 41-7 road win at UConn, keeping its record perfect heading into this big game. The defense has allowed seven points exactly in three games and just 14 points to Northwestern on Sept. 16.
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Notre Dame vs. Duke Betting Picks for Week 5
The Fighting Irish head to Durham, eager to get back on track after the disappointing loss to Ohio State. The offense struggled, including a scoreless first half, before picking up the pace in the second half. It is likely to have some difficulty against a Duke defense, which has allowed a total of just 35 points through four games. However, this is easily Duke's biggest test of the season, as UConn, Northwestern and Lafayette aren't exactly a murderer's row of opponents, and some of the luster is coming off of the win against Clemson, as the Tigers sit just 2-2 overall, and 0-2 inside the conference.
The Fighting Irish go deep at back, playing five tailbacks against the Buckeyes. Estime was good for 70 rushing yards, while Jeremiyah Love also had 57 yards on eight carries, and Jadarian Price also had 22 yards on three totes as a nice change of pace. Gi'Bran Payne found the end zone and is a threat in the red zone. Devyn Ford also provides some solid depth for head coach Marcus Freeman. Hartman has TE Mitchell Evans as a solid safety valve, and he is the next great Notre Dame tight end, filling the shoes of the departed Michael Mayer, now plying his trade with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Duke has been getting tremendous quarterback play from Riley Leonard, who has completed 67.7% of his passes for 778 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He does most of his damage on the ground, however, rumbling for 238 yards and four scores while averaging 8.2 yards per tote. When it isn't Leonard, it's Jordan Waters doing damage. He leads Duke with 258 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per game. Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore are the biggest threats in the passing game, both going for 12.3 or more yards per reception.
Notre Dame is deeper, though, and will use its size in the trenches to push Duke around. Duke's defense will give up more points than it has all season, and the Blue Devils do not have the horses to match the Irish. This won't be a blowout, but the Fighting Irish should be able to win this game by at least 10 points.
Notre Dame vs. Duke Expert Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 (DraftKings SportsBook)
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Notre Dame vs. Duke Predictions for Week 5
I am pretty fired up, as I'll be attending this game. Two brothers from another mother are flying in from Florida, and we'll be hitting it pretty hard at the Raleigh Beer Garden, Burial, Teets, Ponysaurus, The Federal, and points in between. If you're going to the game, too, hit me up on X and come have a beer.
If you've never been to Wallace Wade Stadium at Duke, it's an experience. The campus is beautiful, and when Duke has a huge game against the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame, UNC, etc., it is a fun place to see football. You're up close, and there isn't a bad seat in the house.
Anyway, I feel as if Notre Dame just has too much depth, and Hartman knows this team well. He threw for 347 yards, three TDs and an INT in a 34-31 loss at Duke last season as the starting QB for Wake Forest. His supporting cast for the Fighting Irish is much better.
Duke has scored 38 or more points in the past three games, but facing UConn, Lafayette, and Northwestern is much different than facing Notre Dame. The Irish defense will lock it down against the Blue Devils while using enough offense to snap back on track and gain some national respect by handing a ranked opponent its first loss.
