This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Las Vegas Bowl Picks: Texas A&M vs. USC
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Texas A&M vs. USC Las Vegas Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 (-118, FanDuel Sportsbook); USC +4 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 52 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas A&M -180 (DraftKings Sportsbook); USC +165 (BetMGM)
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Texas A&M vs. USC Las Vegas Bowl Betting Picks
The Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) and the USC Trojans (6-6) meet at Allegiant Stadium in the Las Vegas Bowl on Friday. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
The Aggies were on the short end of a 17-7 score against rival Texas on College Station on Nov. 30 in their regular-season finale. A&M dropped three of their final four games, although the final two losses were by a total of just 12 points. They finished up on an 0-4 against the spread (ATS) slide, while going just 2-7 ATS in the final nine contests.
USC suffered a 49-35 loss at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum at the hands of arch rival Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Nov. 30, but it did win three of their final five games That included wins over bowl teams Nebraska and Rutgers since Oct. 25. The Trojans went 3-2 ATS in those games, too.
Unfortunately, at this time of year, we won't see the same teams we saw during the regular season. With the transfer portal open, opt outs for the NFL Draft, etc., some teams are a shell of their former selves.
For Texas A&M, WR Cyrus Allen is in the transfer portal, while OLs Kam Dewberry (signed with Alabama) and T.J. Shanahan have also departed. On defense, DE Malick Sylla is the only notable loss to the portal. DEs Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart have elected to opt out, as has DT Shemar Turner. However, head coach Mike Elko stated he doesn't believe there will be any addition opt-outs.
Texas A&M piled up 403.3 total yards per game this season, but it wasn't the pass game doing the heavy lifting. The Aggies had 199.8 yards per game on the ground, with RBs Le'Veon Moss (121-769-10) and Amari Daniels (139-661-8) providing a two-headed backfield monster, with QB Marcel Reed (107-501-6) as a solid tertiary option.
USC had a ton of movement in the portal, as well as on opt-outs, so we'll do our best to break it on down.
First off, QB Miller Moss has left the program, electing to sign with Louisville. RB Woody Marks suffered an injury in the season finale, and he has decided to opt out as he protects himself ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft. Starting WRs Kyron Hudson (signed with Penn State) and Duce Robinson (signed with Florida State) are gone, and WR Zachariah Branch also followed them out the door, although he remains unsigned.
The backup to Marks, RB Quinten Joyner, has also left the program for Texas Tech, leaving RB Bryan Jackson (20-122-0) as the likely option to start. QB Jayden Maiava will get the starting nod under center. He completed 61.2% of his pass attempts for 906 yards, 7 TDs and 2 INTs, while also running for 49 yards and 4 TDs.
The good news is that while CB Jaylin Smith has opted out, S Kamari Ramsey will play. OG Emmanuel Pregnon was expected to opt out, but he will reportedly suit up, too. In addition, LB Eric Gentry took a medical redshirt, but he is expected to play.
Neither of these teams finished terribly strong, but looking at the personnel, Texas A&M is a little bit deeper and experienced. The play is Aggies straight up, based mostly on the fact it didn't see a ton of skill-position players bolt like the Trojans did.
Texas A&M vs. USC Expert Pick: Aggies -3.5 (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Texas A&M vs. USC Predictions for Las Vegas Bowl
Looking to the total, USC had a powerful offense in the regular season, totaling 440.3 total yards, 291.7 passing yards per game and 29.8 PPG. However, again, there were so many losses, that the offense is likely watered down or completely vanilla.
The Trojans defense was just so-so, and it lost a lot of bodies, too. The good news is that USC gets a few guys back to help fill some holes. Still, there could be some rust, especially as far as Gentry is concerned, and there is some inexperience on that side of the ball, too.
Texas A&M still has a very dangerous offense, and it will likely do plenty of the heavy lifting to get this one across the finish line. The run game managed just shy of 200 yards per game, and they didn't see any defections. The defense for A&M is rather so-so, good news for the Maiava and his inexperienced skill-position players to get loose.
I like the Over in this game, as we'll have a fast track at Allegiant Stadium under the roof. We should see the mid- to upper-50's.
