This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Fiesta Bowl Football Picks: Penn State vs. Boise State
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The grand experiment known as the 12-Team College Football Playoff continues as Penn State (12-2) will take on Boise State (12-1) in the semifinals. The Nittany Lions took care of business with a 38-10 bashing of SMU to advance to the quarterfinal, while the Broncos enjoyed an extra week of rest with a bye. The winner of this matchup will take on the winner of the Notre Dame-Georgia contest. Both teams are unbeaten in previous trips to the Fiesta Bowl, so expect a barnburner in Glendale. The Fiesta Bowl will be the nightcap of a busy day of gridiron action, with a kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Odds for Fiesta Bowl
Spread: Penn State -11 (Caesars Sportsbook), Boise State +11.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 53.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook) Under 54 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State -450 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Boise State +370 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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We haven't seen much movement for this game, although the moneylines have experienced a further separation over the past few days. We also saw a slight uptick in the projected total, as the original O/U of 52 proved too appetizing for the public.
Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Picks for Fiesta Bowl
As we dive into the metrics of this game, a few things become crystal clear. For starters, it's obvious that both teams lean on their running backs, with Boise State's Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty powering the Broncos' offense. While one might assume Jeanty's presence provides a clear advantage to the Broncos, the Nittany Lions have a two-headed monster in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and the ability to maintain a fresh backfield is a feather in Penn State's cap. Penn State also has a clear advantage on defense, as it offers a slightly stingier run defense than Boise State. The most glaring difference comes with each team's ability to defend the pass. Boise State ranks a paltry 109th in pass defense, which is one reason why their total defense numbers are only good enough to rank 61st nationally. We also have to consider the overall quality of Boise State's opponents when considering these numbers, as well as the overall effectiveness of their playmakers. There's no question that Jeanty can gash many defenses, but Penn State's defense will be the toughest crew he's faced. Against a slate of Big 10 opponents, the Nittany Lions don't appear to have any deficiencies on the defensive end, so they'll ultimately depend on Drew Allar's success in exploiting the Broncos' weakness against the pass. If Allar can shred Boise State's secondary effectively and use the Singleton/Allen combo to keep the defense guessing, it could be a long night for the Broncos. Boise State's success depends on Jeanty and quarterback Maddux Madsen's ability to keep the ball moving. Jeanty can convert tough third-down situations to extend drives, but Penn State's seventh-ranked rush defense will have a game plan for Jeanty, and shutting him down will be their mission. Despite the presence of the country's most talented rusher, I think Penn State will be able to conduct a sharper offensive scheme and contain Boise State's potent offense enough to carry the day.
Penn State vs. Boise State Expert Pick: Penn State -11 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Penn State vs. Boise State Predictions for Fiesta Bowl
Many regard Boise State's ability to hang with Oregon at the beginning of the season is enough reason to take the Broncos here, as they use Penn State's loss to Oregon as some sort of litmus test. I don't think that theory holds water, as the Ducks finally got up to speed after avoiding the upset. If we look at Boise State's body of work, they've allowed a lot of points to inferior teams like Georgia Southern and Washington State. They've developed a habit of handing Jeanty the rock often and hoping for the best, and while Maddux Madsen has put together an excellent season, Penn State's defense will put him into uncomfortable spots without a clear antidote. There isn't much nuance in this game. Both teams will pound the ball, and Allar will make enough attempts to get vertical to maximize red zone opportunities. A lot will depend on Penn State's ability to hamper drives on third down. Thanks to Jeanty, Boise State has one of the best third-down conversion rates in the country. If they fail to replicate that success, the game will get away from them quickly.
