College Football Picks: Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Best Bets
The 9-2 Commodores travel to Neyland Stadium to face in-state rival 8-3 Tennessee Saturday afternoon. Vanderbilt has been a spread darling, covering nine times to date, including five straight, while their games have gone over the total seven times, including three straight. Tennessee has been far more uneven, going just 5-6 ATS with the over hitting seven times
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Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Betting Odds for Week 14
Spread: Tennessee -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Vanderbilt +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 66.5 (BetMGM); Under 66.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Tennessee -142 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Vanderbilt +128 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
We haven't seen a lot of movement with the spread here. Tennessee had an impressive defensive showing last time out against Florida, its second straight strong effort, but the line curiously dropped from Tennessee (-5.5) in pregame week action to its current (-3) range after knocking off the Gators. It largely hasn't moved since, drifting up and down half a point all week. Similarly, the moneyline odds haven't tilted much.
The total has ticked up one point since opening; again, not much movement, something I'm slightly surprised by given the two potent offenses and questionable defenses. All lines are pretty much in unison across books, and we're splitting hairs with the payouts, so as of Friday evening, this can be universally played at your preferred book.
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Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Betting Picks for Week 14
We've got some converging trends in this one. Vanderbilt's game logs scream take them to cover, as well as the over. Tennessee doesn't buck that, but this is a series they've dominated, winning six straight with last year's 13-point margin being the closest outcome.
Both teams really struggle against the pass; Vanderbilt ranks 113th and Tennessee 111th, and both teams can chuck it, with Tennessee ranking fourth and Vandy 16th. It seems pretty obvious there will be points scored, and we should also look to whoever runs it better to likely emerge victorious
I think this is a great game to target a single-game parlay with moving spreads. Vanderbilt +10.5/over 59.5 gets us to (-107) at FanDuel, or Vanderbilt +7.5/over 55.5 is (-112). I want to like the Commodores, I really do. But they have averaged 2.6 ypc or less in two of their last three, and quite honestly, don't have a marquee victory. Given the history in this series, I'll roll with chalk until proven otherwise.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Expert Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Predictions for Week 14
Everything about this game screams back-and-forth shootout, and when it's that obvious, perhaps it's time to press pause and consider the opposite angle.
But I'm really struggling to find it, particularly as it relates to the Vols offense against Vandy's pass defense. Allowing 328 yards and three touchdowns to Arch Manning is one thing, but the Commodores followed that up by allowing 353 yards to Auburn and 284 yards to Kentucky, two of the SEC's worst passing attacks. Joey Aguilar should have a field day, and it should force Diego Pavia to follow suit. Tennessee outscores Vanderbilt.
Tennessee 37, Vanderbilt 30
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Player Props for Saturday, November 29
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt - Over 269.5 passing yards
This line just looks off to me, but our prop picks tool lists it as available at Prize Picks and Sleeper, so let's smash it. Pavia has thrown for 365 yards or more in three straight. Tennessee allowed New Mexico State and Kentucky to top 300 yards passing against them. What am I missing? I'd also consider both quarterbacks' touchdown props, which I shockingly see at o/u 1.5. Pavia is going to have at least three between rushing and passing, and I'd be shocked if Aguilar doesn't get at least two.
Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt - over 51.5 receiving yards
Just a lay-up correlation play with Pavia. He's topped this number in three straight and five of his last eight.
I'd monitor DeSean Bishop's market, perhaps looking more at carry totals and touchdown props. Yardage numbers are flirting around 80, which feels a little rich for me, given Vandy's solid run defense. But I think he'll see volume and potentially score, so if we can get a carry total south of 20, that'd work nicely.
