This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
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Chris' Picks
I wish I could say I was rested and recharged as we head into bowl season, but it was such a grind to just finish at .500 through Championship Week, and now we have to digest the massive roster changes in the postseason; I'm not sure how I'll find success. No one knows teams' motives or their rotations at this point, so I'm hoping I can find an angle, and it's the right one. Have fun with these games, but don't go big unless you've got a really great feeling. These all feel like crapshoots.
Georgia Southern (-3) vs. Ohio
This looks like a classic offense versus defense matchup, with the Eagles capable of scoring while Ohio isn't, but capable of stopping. The Bobcats' offense labored all year, so perhaps their absences aren't as noteworthy as I think. But losing QB Kurtis Rourke, RBs Sieh Bangura and O'Shaan Allison and WR Miles Cross to the portal seems significant. Parker Navarro will take over under center, and while it looks like he can run it some, he's got 24 career passes in three years. I've seen no indication that GSU QB Davis Brin isn't playing, and assuming that's true, that gives Georgia Southern a massive advantage. I don't trust the Eagles' defense, but will back Brin to pull out a victory.
Miami (OH) (+6.5) vs. Appalachian State
The RedHawks don't have the offense to compete with the Mountaineers if this turns into a shootout. But based on the low 44.5-point total, it appears the thought process is Miami's elite defense can keep this low scoring. Further, the way you beat the Mountaineers is on the ground, where they allow 178.1 ypg and 5.1 ypc. Miami RB Rashad Amos has scored in six straight and nine of 10. It's a big if, but if Miami can find success early, they'll be able to play ball control and keep this at a one-score game, if not win outright. I usually fade the MAC heavily in bowl season, but Miami looks like a motivated group.
Western Kentucky (+2.5) vs. Old Dominion
Western Kentucky can be run on, but Old Dominion is an inconsistent rushing offense, averaging 4.1 ypc on the year but getting more than 138 yards just once in their final five games. They rank 87th against the pass, which we know is all WKU wants to do. I believe Austin Reed is playing for the Hilltoppers, and while their passing attack wasn't as prolific as it's been in years past, it still should be the best phase of the game either team possesses. I find this to be a case of the wrong team being favored.
Syracuse (-3) vs. USF
In all of USF's losses except for their oddity against Alabama, they've allowed at least 41 points. In all but one of their wins, they've allowed 24 points or less. I don't expect Syracuse to get into the 40s, but I also don't expect them to be held under 24. Both defenses are sound against the run, but USF ranks last against the pass. The Orange look to be at full strength offensively, with Garrett Shrader and LeQuint Allen ready to go, and that seems like enough to push them into the winner's circle. They won two of their final three, including rallying after Dino Babers was fired, gaining bowl eligibility. They'll carry that modest momentum through while the Bulls have alternated losses and wins across their last six. That trend holds, and they fall here.
Under 64.5, Georgia Tech vs. UCF
Georgia Tech ranks 131st against the run, allowing a whopping 225.7 ypg and 5.4 ypc. Central Florida ranks 121st, allowing 186.8 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Jackets rank 16th in rushing offense, averaging 197.1 ypg and 5.4 ypc. The Knights rank fourth with 233.2 ypg and 5.7 ypc. What does that mean? Well, hopefully, it means a heavy dose of clock churning. Both teams' games have gone under this number eight times despite both being capable scorers and vulnerable defenses. It's a big number, and it likely takes a plethora of huge rushes on both sides for it to go against me.
Last week: 2-3; Season: 35-35
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Greg's Picks
Well, I failed to follow up my best week of the season with another good week, but sometimes that's the way it goes; you think you see things clearly, and it just doesn't go your way. I'm not going to spend any further time on that matter because we've got the entire bowl season in front of us. With that in mind, I'm going to let you know how I come up with my picks and what factors I'm looking at.
I'll start with player defections via the portal, injury or opting out. There is a lot of player movement this time of the year, but not all of it means something. Obviously, if the starting QB is out, that's a big deal, but if five backups are out, not so much. In other words, don't just look at the list of opt-outs; do some research to see if these players were pivotal or not.
Second, I'm looking at motivation. Sometimes, this isn't as easy as it might look on the surface, but with a little digging, you can usually find out which team wants this game more. Teams that don't go to bowls often are generally pumped to play no matter the location, while bigger schools that fell below expectations are usually ready for the season to be over.
The last factor is coaching. Don't underestimate the HC's bowl record. If he has a strong record, then chances are he knows how to get his kids ready to play, and the opposite is true as well. Coaches that have recently left a team also play a huge role as well, not only for continuity but for morale.
Under (44.5) Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State
I originally had Miami (Ohio) as my pick here, but the news that RedHawk QB Aveon Smith was entering the transfer portal changed everything. The RedHawks were limited on offense even with Smith, as there was very little threat of a pass, but without Smith, Miami (Ohio) will likely struggle to move the ball on the ground as well. Don't get me wrong though, they'll try to run and try again, it's all they have and they love to play in low scoring games, so don't be surprised if this game is over quickly. Appalachian State can move the ball on offense, but it might struggle against a very balanced RedHawk defense. Throw in some potentially poor weather, and you have the makings of a 60-minute slog.
New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State
Coaching comes into play here as Fresno State HC Jeff Tedford will not be at this game. How much does the HC matter on game day? Well, that's debatable, but I think it means more for the teams from smaller schools as opposed to the powerhouse teams. Anyhow, both teams lost their final games, but Fresno State dropped its final three games and four of its final seven, while NMSU won eight of its final nine games, including a road win at Auburn. NMSU loves to run, the Aggies rank 8th in the nation in rushing and Fresno State has trouble stopping the run, ranked 98th in the nation.
Under (48.5) UCLA vs. Boise State
Some key players are missing from this game, which will likely have a large impact. Most notably, Boise State QB Taylen Green has left the Broncos for Arkansas and will not participate in this game. UCLA is also dealing with a lot of player movement on both sides of the ball, so I don't expect the Bruins' offense to be all that sharp in this spot. Boise State will be starting a freshman quarterback that hasn't seen much action, so I would expect the Broncos to keep the ball on the ground and protect the quarterback as much as possible. UCLA has had a strong defense all season, and even with the defections, the Bruins should be able to shut down the Broncos here.
California (+3) vs. Texas Tech
This one has me a little worried because the line opened at Cal -1.5 and has since moved 4.5 points in favor of Texas Tech. Ah, but if it were that easy, to just follow the line movements, we'd all be rich. I'm having a hard time figuring out this line movement, because from what I can see, the Red Raiders have been hit harder with player movement than Cal. Cal also finished on a high note, winning its final three games to become bowl eligible. Cal also had to deal with a hellish schedule, which is why the Bears could only manage six wins.
Old Dominion (-2.5) vs. Western Kentucky
This is one line movement I'll be tailing because I don't believe it's gone far enough yet. WKU was decimated by player movement after the regular season, losing almost its entire offensive line. They've also got some skill players that still might skip this one, so I doubt we've seen the end of the player movement on that side. ODU meanwhile hasn't had much movement and should be ready for this one. I am little concerned about WKU's passing attack in this spot, but if the Hilltoppers aren't at full strength, then I wonder if they can move the ball like they did during the regular season. Let's not underestimate the morale hit with all these players leaving as well.
Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 30-40-0
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Jeff's Picks
Moving off of Florida State at the last minute hurt my final total, and I, unfortunately, took a huge loss by only getting the SMU line correctly. It was my first 1-4 total of the season, which I should take as a huge achievement, but it still feels hollow. We have three more installments of the capper remaining, and I'll try to right the ship this week. The transfer portal must be studied to gain an edge in betting on the bowl games, and a team's bowl record also plays a part. Certain programs know how to cope with the break and make their teams ready, while others aren't as strong in postseason play. We'll try to make our picks with those factors in mind.
UCLA -4 vs. Boise State (LA Bowl)
Taylen Green and Dante Moore are in the transfer portal, so while that's bad news for Boise State, it's great news for UCLA. Moore didn't develop fast enough and Chip Kelly could have notched some more wins if he had just benched him. The team will be in much better hands with Ethan Garbers, and although Carson Steele (undisclosed) may not play, TJ Harden is every bit as capable of leading the running attack. Sophomore running back Ashton Jeanty is a star in the making, but he'll face the best rush defense in the country in the Bruins, who also have an excellent pass rush. CJ Tiller will make his first career start for the Broncos, and he'll need to make a splash early to get a win here.
Old Dominion (-2) vs. Western Kentucky (Famous Toastery Bowl)
The transfer portal has hit the Hilltoppers hard, and they'll need to replace almost all of the offensive line. Austin Reed and the Western Kentucky offense lack the spark that they had last season, and the defense has struggled to keep them in many games. Meanwhile, ODU's roster is mostly free of portal departures, and after one of their best Sun Belt campaigns in recent memory, they look much more motivated to win this one. The teams couldn't be more different, with Reed and the Hilltoppers running a pass-focused offense and ODU focused on the run. QB dual-threat Grant Wilson is an adept runner, is efficient, and makes very few mistakes, while Reed may be forced to improvise with weaker protection.
New Mexico State -3.5 vs. Fresno State (New Mexico Bowl)
Although Diego Pavia is dealing with a shoulder injury and standout wide receiver left for the transfer portal, I still like the Aggies' chances against the Bulldogs. Pavia is expected to play, and he'll lead a passing attack that averages 225 yards per game through the air. The team's scoring defense is also excellent, ranking 36th nationally. Fresno State withered at the end of the season with a string of bad losses, and with coach Jeff Tedford away from the team, the Bulldogs will probably not be well-prepared. The Bulldogs have a full array of excellent offensive weapons, but if they continue the recent trend, it'll be a long night against a crowd that will lean heavily New Mexico State's way.
UNDER 44.5 Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State (Cure Bowl)
Thanks to a top-notch defense, Miami won the MAC Championship despite limping through the season without QB Brett Gabbert. Replacement Aveon Smith led the way, but he is now in the transfer portal, leaving very little experience in the QB room for the bowl game. The team will likely platoon Henry Hesson and Maddox Kopp to see who has the most early success, but the inexperience under center is bad news for the Redhawks. The Mountaineers also had a big portal loss in Nate Noel, leaving the running game in disarray. QB Joey Aguilar will need to open things up, but the Redhawks' defense will cause some problems. Barring an App State blowout, I think this ball-control game will land below the 43.5 total.
OVER 63.5 Georgia Tech vs. UCF (Gasparilla Bowl)
The Gasparilla Bowl features two high-powered offenses and two sub-par defenses, and I expect this to be a fast-paced battle between Haynes King and John Rhys Plumlee. Both quarterbacks are dual threats that can allow their pass targets to get behind the linebackers and break for big plays, and both defenses lack a lot to be desired in the secondary. The numbers overwhelmingly compel me to be the over despite the high number, but Guz Malzahn and Buster Faulkner will have their teams primed and ready for a shootout, and I think the over will deliver through a scoring barrage from both teams.
Last Week: 1-4 Season: 34-34-1
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