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College Football Futures Bets: 2023 College Football Win Totals Wagers for Big Ten
The 2023 NCAA Football regular season is getting closer, although none of the Big Ten conference members take the field until at least Thursday, August 31, when the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Minnesota Golden Gophers lock horns in a conference game in the Twin Cities. No Big Ten team plays in the Week Zero schedule of games for the weekend of Saturday, Aug. 26.
It will be worth the extra week of waiting, as we have some good football on tap in the early going, including three conference games right out of the gate in the first weekend.
The East Division of the Big Ten is a beast, as the Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions are not only conference championship contenders, but teams expected to contend for a spot in the playoffs. The West Division? Well, let's say that's where we might find some of our more marginal teams, and potential win total value plays, too.
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Iowa Hawkeyes Win Totals (7.5 at FanDuel)
It seems like so long ago, but the Hawkeyes were in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2021, although for Iowa fans it is quite forgettable, too. Michigan beat the brakes off of Iowa in that game, and it meandered its way to a 7-5 record last season, taking a bit of a step back.
The Hawkeyes were able to pick up a 21-0 win in the Music City Bowl against Kentucky, and they did it in signature Iowa fashion, as the defense outscored the offense in that one.
Iowa might not have to rely so heavily upon its defense in 2023, as QB Cade McNamara transfers in from Michigan to give the offense a much-needed boost. McNamara will line up behind an experienced offensive line returning all five starters. He also can rely upon talented RB Kaleb Johnson, as well as dependable red-zone threat TE Luke Lachey. He has some rapport with TE Erick All, who also comes over via the portal from the Wolverines.
The defense should be sick again for defensive coordinator Phil Parker, although he must replace ILB Jack Campbell and DBs Kaevon Merriweather and Riley Moss. Gone is DL Lukas Van Ness, too. However, the Hawkeyes still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, with CB Cooper DeJean leading the back end of the D.
In addition to some key offensive additions, and a rock-solid defense, Iowa's schedule is key in its win total projections. It misses both Michigan and Ohio State in cross-divisional play, and its non-conference home schedule of Utah State and Western Michigan should provide some nice wins. We'll know a lot about Iowa, and whether it will be an easy Over result for the win total, or a nail-biter scenario, after the Sept. 9 game at Iowa State. If Iowa can start 3-0, the potential is there for up to nine or 10 wins. If you play Over 7.5 wins, available at some shops, that could potentially come through, but nine wins is quite lofty.
Trips to Penn State and Wisconsin will be challenging, but it gets Illinois and Michigan State at home for possible victories, while facing Northwestern at Wrigley Field in early November. The keys to whether this goes over are the Floyd of Rosedale game against Minnesota, the Iowa State game and the Nebraska game to close out. Even with an improved offense, I can see at least four losses despite missing Michigan and Ohio State. Iowa can beat all of those teams, but it also usually fails to show up in at least one game you think they should absolutely win, too.
Iowa Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 8.5 WINS (-158 at FanDuel)
Maryland Terrapins Win Totals (7.5 at FanDuel)
The Terrapins figure to fire out of the chute with three straight winnable non-conference games to start at SECU Stadium. It's actually conceivable that Maryland could open the season with a 5-0 mark if it can top Virginia at home, and win at Michigan State on Sept. 23, too, although let's go with 4-1 through the first five as a more conservative estimate.
In fact, while I don't believe Maryland will upset Ohio State on Oct. 7, it has winnable conference games against Illinois and Northwestern in October. This is a team that could lock up bowl eligibility before all of the leaves have fallen from the trees in College Park.
While the November schedule features both East Division foes Penn State and Michigan, at least it gets those two games at home. That might not make a difference, it might only need one or two wins to get over the win total with four tries in November.
QB Taulia Tagovailoa is back to lead what could be a high-octane offense, but the school's all-time leading passer can't do it alone. He lost four of his five offensive linemen, and three of his top six receivers have departed, although the dependable security blanket TE Corey Dyches returns.
The defense struggled in 2022, particularly in conference play, and the defensive line will be quite inexperienced.
I expect Maryland to get off to a hot start, possibly winning six of its first seven or eight games. Still, the Terps could sputter in November with top-10 teams Michigan and Penn State visiting College Park, and road trips to Nebraska and Rutgers determining whether this team hits the Over or Under.
I can see this easily being a seven-win team, which is pretty solid considering they're in the more difficult East Division. But unless it stuns Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State, I just don't see a path to eight wins unless Maryland finds a way to win on the road frequently. It won just twice in five road outings in 2022, so keep fading Maryland on the road until further notice.
Maryland Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 7.5 WINS (-164 at FanDuel)
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Nebraska Cornhuskers Win Totals (6.5 at BetMGM)
The Cornhuskers went big in the offseason, hiring Matt Rhule as head coach. Big Red Nation is hoping that Rhule can return to the winning form he had in previous stops at Baylor and Temple, while putting the nightmare NFL stop with the Carolina Panthers in the rear-view mirror.
Of course, Rhule was 0-11 against ranked teams at Baylor, and 2-5 against ranked teams during his tenure at Temple, so he has work to do in Lincoln if he wants to rebuild his image.
Nebraska hasn't had a winning season since Mike Riley helped the team to nine victories back in 2016. It has just two bowl wins since 2009, and at least four losses in each season in all 19 campaigns since mistakenly firing Frank Solich after a 10-win campaign in 2003. The program hasn't close come close to those heights since.
Corn Nation would be happy with just bowl eligibility at this point. It hasn't been bowling in six seasons, something completely unheard of if you grew up in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's, when Big Red was routinely winning the old Big 8 Conference, and earning frequent flyer miles on trips to Miami for the Orange Bowl.
Unfortunately for Nebraska, while bowl eligibility is certainly possible, a winning regular season might have to wait. The good news is that the Huskers miss both Ohio State and Penn State on the cross-division schedule. But opening at Minnesota and at Colorado in a pair of high-profile games would have Nebraska digging out of an 0-2 hole. Michigan pays an early visit Sept. 30, and the November schedule features three, or perhaps all four, teams expected to be bowl eligible.
Rhule turns the keys over to QB Jeff Sims, who arrives from Georgia Tech. He takes the place of QB Casey Thompson, who joins Tom Herman at FAU. Unfortunately for Sims, he won't have WR Trey Palmer, now in the NFL. WR Malachi Coleman made headlines committing to Big Red, and WR Marcus Washington is very serviceable, so the cupboard isn't completely bare. Plus, Sims is a dual-threat option, which will be night and day in terms of mobility when compared to Thompson.
It might take a while for the defense to jell, however. New defensive coordinator Tony White's unit might take some time to come together, and it's likely to be a slow and arduous process. I just don't see this Nebraska team winning seven games unless it can top win some conference games. It won just once against West Division teams in 2022, and with trips to both Minnesota and Wisconsin, that figure might not be much better this time around.
Nebraska Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 6.5 WINS (-135 at BetMGM)
