This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
CFB Conference Championship Bets: Expert Picks for Big Ten Title
We are just a few weeks away from Week 0 and Week 1 action of the college football season and this college football article will summarize many months of research and analytical betting algorithms and systems that have helped identify strong betting opportunities you may want to tag along with me to the window.
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2022 CFB Recap
15 New Teams Were in the Final AP Poll last season
Last season, the Alabama Crimson Tide was ranked #1 in the preseason polls followed by the Ohio State Buckeyes, Georgia Bulldogs, Clemson Tigers, Notre Dame Irish, Texas A&M Aggies, Utah Utes, Michigan Wolverines, Oklahoma Sooners, and the Baylor Bears to round out the Top-10. Of the 25 teams ranked in the Top-25 in the preseason 2022-23 poll. 15 teams earned their appearances in the Final AP poll that were not in the preseason poll.
Penn State was not ranked in the preseason poll and finished ranked 11th in the nation having posted a 11-2 straight-up (SU) record while going 9-3-1 ATS for 75% winning bets and the Over posting a 9-4 record. TCU was the most overlooked and undervalued program last season and finished third in the nation having made the College Football Playoffs and earned a 10-4-1 ATS record for 71.4% winning tickets and the Over going 9-6. The other teams were Kansas State, who went 10-4 in the Big-12 Conference and posted a 9-4-1 ATS record for 69% winning bets, Tennessee finished 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS, Washington went 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS, FSU went 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, Oregon State went 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS, Tulane went 11-2 SU and 11-2 ATS, UCLA went 9-4 SU and 6-7 ATS, LSU went 10-4 SU and 8-5 ATS, South Carolina went 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, Texas went 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS, Mississippi State went 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, Troy went 12-2 SU and 11-34 ATS, and UTSA went 11-3 SU and 7-7 ATS.
Of these 16 teams only two of them, UTSA and UCLA were the only ones to not have a winning ATS record. Overall, these disrespected preseason programs combined to produce an outstanding 99-35 SU record for 74% and 85-46-3 ATS mark good for 65% winning tickets.
Who were the Up and Comers from Two Seasons Ago?
At the start of the 2021-22 college football season, the Michigan Wolverines were not even ranked, and they had a spectacular season going 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, and finishing third in the AP poll. The Baylor Bears were not ranked in the preseason but finished fifth in the final poll with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS record. The Oklahoma State Cowboys were also disrespected in the preseason polls and finished seventh posting a 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS record. The same can be said for the Michigan State Spartans, the Mississippi Rebels, the Pittsburgh Panthers, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, the Kentucky Wildcats, the BYU Cougars, the NC State Wolfpack, the Arkansas Razorbacks, the Utah State Aggies, and the San Diego Aztecs. From the preseason Top-25 AP poll, there were 13 teams that earned their way to be represented in the final AP poll that did not appear in the preseason poll and they posted a combined for an outstanding 97-25 SU mark for 80% wins and a 75-44-3 ATS for 63% winning tickets.
Over the past two seasons, teams that were grossly underrated without being ranked in the preseason polls, then earning their way into the final rankings did quite well posting a 196-60 SU record for 77% wins and a 160-90-6 ATS mark for 64% winning tickets.
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Who is Going to Win the Big Ten Conference?
The Big Ten has 14 football programs and will be adding two more in USC and UCLA next season and with the dysfunction and chaos in the PAC-12 conference, even more teams may elect to join the Big Ten Conference. Generally, Penn State is not thought of as a sleeper type of program since they are always in the hunt for the conference Championship but have always have the tough divisional duo of having to face both Michigan and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions were grossly underrated last season and despite being a top-10 program they remain quite attractive to bet in the futures market at +550 as offered at BetMGM. Both Ohio State and Michigan are lined at +180 to win the Big Ten and are National Championship contenders too.
The Birth of Superstar Drew Allar
Most of the attention is on Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who has a tremendous arm and an elite football IQ. However, it will be the running back twosome of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined with an even better defense that will get them into the College Playoffs. Singleton earned Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Freshman All-American wards after gaining 1,061 yards and scoring 12 TDs last season. Moreover, Allen and Singleton will be running behind the best offensive line in the Big Ten and perhaps the nation.
The Best Offensive Line James Franklin Has Ever Had
The offensive line has plenty of experience and chemistry returning this season with three red-shirt seniors occupying five of the positions. RT Caedan Wallace is a redshirt senior and weighs in at 6-5 and 345 pounds. RG and red-shirt senior Sal Wormley weighs in 6-3 and 324 pounds. LG and red shirt sophomore Landon Tengwell is 6-6 and 317 pounds and then there is LT red shirt junior Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who is 6-6 and 317 pounds. He has elite foot speed and blocking techniques that will more than just project Allar's blind side in the pocket. The most important member of this offensive line, though, is their center, who is a senior transfer from Cornell in 6-3 315 pound Hunter Nourzad. He earned an all-Big Ten honorable mention last year and has played RG, RT, and center at the division-1 level.
How Many Pass Plays of 40+ Yards Will Penn State Have This Season?
With Allar's strong arm that is fully capable of launching the ball into the air traffic control pattern, the addition of WR senior transfer Dante Cephas, from Kent State, will have a monster season. He is 6-0 and 187 pounds but has tremendous quickness that will make it nearly impossible for any CB to cover him, especially in man situations. The Penn State ground attack will force defensive coordinators to bring the safeties up to the line of scrimmage and in turn, this will open up optimal big play vertical routes with relievers in man coverage and not over-the-top safety help.
Big Ten Best Bet for 2023
Why Penn State Will Be the Best
Sophomore Allar is a five-star recruit and the best quarterback in the Big Ten right now. He has the potential to be a first-round NFL draft pick and was rated the second-best pocket passing QB in the 2022 recruiting class and the time is now to turn him loose. He will be hard to bring down at 6-5, 235 pounds, and powerful legs, when he is flushed out of the pocket and looking to extend plays downfield. I have bet Penn State to win the Big Ten Conference and the National Championship at +2500 at BetMGm because I strongly believe they will have the top-ranked offense and defense in the Big Ten at the end of the regular season.
