Underdog Best Ball: College Football Best Ball Late-Round Targets
Underdog entered the college football best ball foray this year with a Power 4-only product that has been extremely fun to dig into. Because it's the first year, it's the wild west in terms of roster construction and strategy. It isn't a "solved game" like NFL where there are well-established axioms that most drafters follow to one degree or another.
Put another way, we don't know if we're sunk by not having four receivers through the first seven rounds in a college football draft the way we might in an NFL best ball draft. There's also the superflex wrinkle in Underdog College Football contests that put a different emphasis on quarterback depth.
Rather than wax poetic about generalities, I'm going to point out a handful of specific players I've been routinely drafting in the end-game on these tournaments. There are some players who get drafted 100% of the time in these tournaments that shouldn't, and others who go undrafted far more often than they should. I'll narrow the focus to players I'm targeting in the 18th round through the 20th and hopefully uncover some gems to help you round out your roster builds.
Dylan Raiola, QB (ADP 208.5) and Thomas Fidone, TE (ADP 234.8) Nebraska 
What I like about these two is that they present an easy way to find a correlated pairing with upside with two of your final three picks. For those who are new to the college game, tight end is a particularly fickle position to figure out year-over-year and there are often guys who go extremely late that will perform just as well as their counterparts going in the middle rounds. With high-floor players so hard to find at tight end, I'd rather take my chances on some later-round guys with paths to success.
Since we're already talking tight end, I'll start with Fidone, who you can get in the last round. Fidone was the No.1 rated tight end coming out of high school in 2021 but knee injuries effectively wiped out his first two seasons in Lincoln. Finally healthy in 2023, Fidone caught 25 of 40 targets for 260 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers aren't overly exciting on their surface, but the fact that he played in 12 games is arguably the most important figure in his box score.
We can also expect Nebraska's passing game to take a significant step forward with Dylan Raiola under center. More on him in a second. Fidone ranked second on the team in target share (17%) and while Nebraska did some work in the portal when it came to adding talent at receiver, there's still room for Fidone to produce.
The way I see it, even if Fidone drops to third or fourth in the pecking order for targets, the volume and quality of the targets are set to skyrocket relative to last year when Husker QB's combined for 135 passing yards per game on 6.2 YPA. We will see a more balanced offense compared to last year's 35/65 pass/run split with a better quarterback at the helm, and this should help Fidone's bottom line.
With Raiola, you'll have to be ready to pounce no later than the middle part of the 18th round and I could see him making a late surge over the likes of Graham Mertz or Payton Thorne in these late drafts. He's unquestionably talented and it'd be a pretty big surprise if he wasn't the starter Week 1. His high school tape shows electric arm talent and some good mobility. I have some concerns that he'll be a little careless with the ball/overconfident in his ability to make throws sometimes, but that can be forgiven if he's connecting on deep shots and putting up points.
All told, Nebraska's offense should be much better under Raiola than it was last year and Fidone stands to benefit. Both are on my end-game radar.
Gavin Bartholomew, TE (ADP 239.2) Pittsburgh 
Once upon a time, Bartholomew was a second-team Freshman All-American the year that Kenny Pickett led Pitt to the ACC Championship. The ensuing two seasons have been rocky for Bartholomew with a combined 39 catches with three touchdowns on 70 total targets. I tend to blame the quarterback play more than Bartholomew, though. In eight games last season, Bartholomew caught 18 passes for 326 yards -- good for 18.1 yards per catch and 11.6 YPT, explosive numbers for a TE.
Pitt's offense will hopefully see a jump this year thanks to new offensive coordinator Kade Bell, who joins the Power 4 ranks after leading Western Carolina to the top mark in FCS in yards per game and third in passing yards per game (321). Those numbers won't transfer over 1:1 but we can have some optimism that things will be markedly better on that side of the ball.
Lastly, I think there's a chance that Bartholomew finishes second on the team in target share. Konata Mumpfield is the only other notable difference-maker in that group of pass-catchers. If Bartholomew stays healthy, he will be Pitt's best option up the seams and in the red zone. For someone who's basically free in drafts, I'd prefer a player who projects for a solid role rather than speculating on a guy buried on a depth chart in a better offense. Especially at tight end.
Dillon Bell, WR (ADP 236.3) Georgia 
This is one I'm confident in saying that the market has this completely wrong. Tell me if this logically follows: QB Carson Beck has an ADP of 52.7. His top pass-catcher, Dominic Lovett, has an ADP of 114. Then the market is split on whether it likes Oscar Delp (148.3) or Benjamin Yurosek (184.6) more. Next up is Bell, who barely has an ADP of 236.
The market is probably wrong on Beck -- I'm not sure he puts up the numbers to justify that ADP -- but still. If you're putting that much stock into the engine of the offense, somebody's gonna have to catch his passes.
It's already strange that the market is hitching its wagon to Lovett as the guy to pair with Beck. Lovett is fine, but that's about it. He's someone who can give you 50-60 catches for ~700 yards and a handful of touchdowns. We're greedy, though. We want more yards and more touchdowns. I think Bell delivers on both of those fronts.
Bell started to look like an alpha down the stretch last season with 15 catches for 228 yards and a score on 21 targets in the last four games of the year, including the bowl game. Now, the bowl game was weird so we're not putting too much stock into Bell snaring five grabs for 86 in that one. But it's not a bad thing that he did that, right?
Lovett is a trap at ADP and Bell is the Georgia receiver you need to be targeting. Bell is entering his third season with the program and is locked into a starting role in what projects to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. We can also tack on the fact that he gets involved in the run game a bit (25 carries last year for 157 and 2 TD) as an added bonus.
Rodney Hammond, RB (ADP 234.7) Pittsburgh
We're three seasons into Hammond's career and he has never topped 550 yards or five touchdowns in a single campaign. He had a 34 percent share of the carries last year and delivered an RB 210 season. These are not things that typically excite potential fantasy managers. However, there's reason to believe that this offense takes a big step forward as a whole after last year's dreadful showing.
The aforementioned new offensive coordinator should give this unit a jolt. While Bell is more known for his pass-happy approach, this isn't a program that is just going to shift to the air raid. The run game will still be part of the DNA.
Hammond will have to contend with Desmond Reid, who has experience in Bell's system as he played under him at Western Carolina. Still, it's difficult to imagine a 5-8, 175-pound former FCS back taking a monopoly of this backfield. Hammond should still see 30+% of the work in a much more favorable setup than what he saw last year.
Pitt is generally being under-discussed and certainly not respected in these drafts. Hammond is the only Panther getting drafted before the final pick of drafts and I think getting a starting running back in an improved offense playing against a soft schedule will be worth far more than that.
And, for the roster construction bros out there -- Pitt's byes come in Week 5 and 8, which makes him a nice option for those struggling to find viable options that don't have Week 10, 12 or 13 byes.
Dane Key, WR (ADP 238.2) Kentucky 
If you're skeptical of Brock Vandagriff and/or the Kentucky passing game, you can skip this blurb.
Full disclosure, I too have some concerns about Kentucky's new offensive coordinator and we've also yet to see new quarterback Brock Vandagriff in a starting role after riding the bench at Georgia. Those concerns are lessened when a key piece of that passing game can be snagged with the last pick in a draft.
For one, Key is extremely talented. He was a four-star recruit in the class of 2022 according to 247 and a top-50 receiver. Key played immediately as a freshman and collected 37 receptions for 519 yards and six scores on 57 targets. The quarterback play hurt Key's efficiency last year but the volume ticked up as he drew 75 targets (42-636-6).
As for the role, I'm not convinced that transfer Ja'Mori Maclin takes much off of Key's plate. Key should still project as the No.2 target in this offense behind Barion Brown, who is also criminally underdrafted at 166.5.
A lot of this comes down to Vandagriff's ability to deliver on the five-star promise he once carried coming out of high school. In limited action at Georgia last year, Vandagriff completed 12 of 18 passes for 165 yards and a pair of scores while also running five times for 39 yards.
Vandagriff isn't quite as big as Will Levis was, but I think he can deliver a similar level of effectiveness. He's athletic and can make plays with his feet, and he's also got a strong arm. He fits the mold of the Stoops-era Kentucky QB. Going from Devin Leary to Vandagriff could be a big deal for Key and Company.
For what it's worth, I don't hate taking a flyer on Vandagriff in the 19th round and then pairing him with Key to finish the draft.
Dante Cephas, WR (ADP 239.9) Kansas State 
The dreaded double transfer. I can hear the groans from here. I know. I get it. Fool me once...
Still, though, Cephas had a good track record at Kent State before flopping spectacularly at Penn State last season. Penn State's passing game took forever to get on track and really only flourished against Maryland and Michigan State in conference play. I can't place all the blame on Cephas for not thriving there last year.
Prior to the Happy Valley stint, Cephas combined for 130 catches on 200 targets for 1,984 yards and 12 touchdowns in 23 games at Kent State. He now heads to a Kansas State receiver room that is largely unsettled. The top-drafted wideout is Jayce Brown at 228.6, so there's not much difference between him, Cephas and Keegan Johnson according to the market.
This is a bet that Cephas finds his way into a starting role for a K-State offense operated by a first-round QB in Avery Johnson. Obviously, much of the appeal with AJ is the rushing upside but we do have him projected for 360 passes. Any of these cheap K-State WRs make sense late, especially if you already drafted Avery Johnson. Here's hoping that with Cephus, we won't get fooled again.
Rayshon Luke, RB (ADP 240) Arizona 
Many moons ago, I wrote up Luke in my signing day recap article identifying some potential impact players from the 2022 class.
Nicknamed "Speedy", Luke is one of the gems of Arizona's class. He showed out in the Army All-American Bowl with a pair of touchdowns en route to being named the game's MVP...
Clearly, this backfield needs fixing and Luke can be a game-changer. His speed coupled with Jalen John's powerful running style could give Arizona an interesting 1-2 punch in the backfield. If things break right, Luke could be the PAC-12 version of Keaton Mitchell this year"
So we haven't seen that come to fruition...yet. A lot has changed in Tuscon over the last two seasons, culminating in a No.11 ranking in the final AP Poll that unfortunately led to Jed Fisch getting poached by Washington. There's still plenty of optimism surrounding this offense with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan back in the fold, though.
The backfield is a really interesting spot in Tuscon. Jonah Coleman followed Fisch to Washington and bot Michael Wiley and DJ Williams are off to the NFL.
Drafters are high on Quali Conley, who follows Brent Brennan down from San Jose State. Conley (ADP 139.5) knows the system and averaged 6.4 YPC over 131 carries at SJSU last year. He has the build (5-10, 209) to hold up against Big 12 competition. It's fine to be excited about him, but is he really going to soak up all the RB work for Arizona? I'm skeptical of that. We can believe that Conley is a fine enough pick at ADP while also digging deeper.
Luke is not going away, though. 70 percent of last year's rushes are unaccounted for and Conley is only going to take on so much of that share. Even if Luke caps out at 22% of the rushes, he has the ability to be explosive enough on that workload to pay off. Luke strikes me as a great "better in best ball" type of target who may only find his way into your lineup a handful of times, but when he does, it's off of a big spike week.
A potential fly in the ointment is Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who had a strong finish to the season last year at New Mexico. Still, I'm going to take flyers on Luke for that per-touch upside.
