College Football Best Bets: Oklahoma vs Alabama
It's a great matchup on the horizon coming to Tuscaloosa between two storied programs. Of course, it's also now a conference game, as the Sooners pay a visit to the Crimson Tide. Alabama still has a loss to spend, but Oklahoma is in must-win mode. The Sooners are on the road facing a Tide team that hasn't lost since their season opener, but don't assume that they are going to win this one without breaking a sweat.
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds
Spread: Alabama -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Oklahoma +6 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -210 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Oklahoma +185 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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The Tide are not quite a touchdown favorite at home, so if they can win by a touchdown they will cover the spread. However, there is a genuine question as to whether or not that will be the case down at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Picks
I'll start with this on the "Not so fast, my friend" side of things. The Crimson Tide rank 11th in SP+. That's impressive, to be sure. However, the Sooners rank ninth. Yes, Oklahoma ranks higher in SP+ than Alabama. While the Tide rank higher offensively, which is not surprising, the Sooners rank higher defensively and in terms of special teams. In fact, while Oklahoma ranks 15th in special teams, Alabama ranks 84th. Of course, special teams isn't as important as offense or defense, but it does matter, especially when considering whether or not Bama can win by a touchdown.
It's going to be all in Ty Simpson for Alabama on offense, but Brent Venables also knows that. Oklahoma has only allowed 82.4 rushing yards per game, and Alabama has only averaged 111.9 rushing yards per game. The Crimson Tide have an unremarkable run game. Derrick Henry isn't walking through that door, etc. Simpson, for his part, has been excellent through the air. He's thrown 21 touchdowns against one pick, but on the other hand he's lost a fumble in four games in a row.
Simpson is still easier to trust than John Mateer, though. Remember when Mateer was a Heisman candidate early on? Oklahoma's first loss of the season came against Texas in Red River, but Mateer had rushed back from a hand injury. He looked bad in that game, but at the time you could consider it a product of not being ready. Here's the thing, though. In four games prior to his injury he completed 67.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns against three picks. Mateer added 190 yards and five touchdowns on the ground as well. In four games since returning, he's completed 59.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and four picks, and he's rushed for 116 yards and one score.
Alabama's loss to Florida State looks bad, but that was in Week 1. Oklahoma has lost two of its last four games. While I think Oklahoma will make it hard on Alabama, Simpson versus Mateer pushes me over the edge.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Best Bet: Alabama -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Predictions
I'd also take the under in this one. Neither Simpson nor Mateer is likely to wow, and Alabama won't get anything going on the ground. I just don't see this Sooners offense getting going on the road. There is a path to an upset, which wouldn't be as much of an upset as one might think. However, I do also believe there is a reason why, right now, Oklahoma winning would be considered an upset. The Tide are rolling, and without Mateer in early-season form I don't see that roll stopping.
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 16
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Best Bets for Saturday, November 15
John Mateer, Oklahoma – Under 205.5 passing yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
It is not the norm for teams to throw for over 205 yards against Alabama. In fact, the Crimson Tide have only given up 164.1 passing yards per contest. Mateer hasn't thrown for over 205 yards in three of his last four games. If he didn't do it against Tennessee, I don't envision him doing it against Alabama.
Ryan Williams, Alabama – Over 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Williams has not taken the step forward Jeremiah Smith has, but if Alabama is going to win, it will be through the air offensively. Williams has gone over 53.5 receiving yards in four of eight games, so this is something of a coin toss. He hasn't done it against any defense as good as Oklahoma's, but there's a first time for everything. Let's not forget that as a true freshman he had 48 catches for 865 yards and eight touchdowns. One big play and Williams should be good to go.
