College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
There we go, a terrific Week 12 where I couldn't have been more spot on game script-wise with Missouri, and the lone loss was close enough to not be a complete miss, which I've had plenty of this season. Back to .500 on the year; the last time I reached that mark was followed by a terrible showing. Let's buck that trend.
I initially had Miami (-14) as a play at Virginia Tech. There's now plenty of buzz around the Hokies with the hiring of James Franklin, and the spread has curiously bumped to (-17.5). I still like my 'Canes, and they've seemingly bought into the fact they need style points. But with the rising number, I'll sit it out.
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Minnesota (+3.5) at Northwestern (Wrigley Field)
A simple exercise in a low-scoring expectancy, paired with catching points that I'm happy to take. The Gophers can be beaten via the pass, but Northwestern ranks 118th in passing yards per game, so they aren't likely to consistently exploit that. Minnesota counters with a woeful rushing attack against the Wildcats' getable run defense. But they've beaten teams they're supposed to beat while losing to superior opponents, and I can't make the argument that Northwestern is superior. A boring slugfest is in order, but I believe Minnesota will find just enough rushing success to scratch out a few more points. I don't have a play on the Gophers moneyline.
Louisville (+2.5) at SMU
The Cardinals are reeling, having lost two straight, but they are also 3-0 on the road in conference. Both teams had last week off to regroup, and I expect Jeff Brohm to scheme here in a way he did at Miami and get Louisville back on track, despite them having questionable motives. Ultimately, it's all about parity and chaos in the ACC, where things change every week. Both teams are solid defensively, and Rhett Lashlee will have some wrinkles for the Cardinals, too. But QB Kevin Jennings hasn't looked right all season; he's not running at all. I don't trust Miller Moss either, but think a few big plays from Caullin Lacy and Chris Bell will be the difference. Really don't hate bumping this to (+3.5) on an alt line, which is (-136) at FanDuel. But again, chaos, so Louisville wins outright.
Jacksonville State (-1.5) at Florida International
This line just doesn't make any sense to me. Is there really a home-field advantage at Pitbull Stadium, where the Panthers are 3-2, beating Bethune Cookman, FAU, and Liberty while losing to Missouri State and Delaware? They're allowing a targetable 4.6 ypc, and we know that's what the Gamecocks will run through. Jacksonville State has the fifth-best rushing attack and has won five straight, including two on the road. They're 6-0 in conference and have a showdown with 6-1 Western Kentucky next week. With Kennesaw State not eliminated from CUSA title hopes, the Gamecocks can't afford to slip up. And they won't.
Tulane (-8.5) at Temple
Look around, but I feel comfortable up to (-9.5). Perhaps the travel and maybe cooler weather is a pause, but otherwise, this should be all systems go for the Green Wave. Temple is incredibly porous against the run, allowing nearly 5.0 ypc. Six of their opponents have reached at least 199 yards, including all five of their losses. Further, they have one quality-ish win (UTSA), and their losses have come by 39, 21, and 31 to non-service academies. I will add that Tulane seems to play to their opponent, rarely blowing teams out. But they'll run the ball, limiting Temple's offensive chances and stretching this out.
Florida State (-5.5) at North Carolina State
This is one I may regret come Sunday morning, but I can't get over how awful the Wolfpack defense is. The 'Noles are 0-3 on the road so backing them a favorites is a risk, but the defense has been solid overall, allowing just 20.3 ppg, so they should limit a 'Pack offense that's struggling. RB Hollywood Smothers doesn't look healthy, and CJ Bailey is coming off his worst game of the season and has struggled against quality defenses. N.C. State ranks 54th against the run but dead last against the pass. Thomas Castellanos should have a big day, and FSU will have offensive balance. They're one win away from bowl eligibility and leave nothing to chance ahead of next week's matchup with Florida.
Last week: 4-1; Season 30-30
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Greg's Picks
Back on track again as I posted another 3-2 week. Hopefully, I've got another 4-1 week on the horizon, but I'll take 3-2 the rest of the way if that's how it unfolds.
The first loss was on the Hoosiers, who just haven't resembled that powerhouse we saw over the first two months of the season lately. They won with ease, but the number was too big. The second loss was on Michigan State, which hung tough for much of the game, but in the end, Penn State found some separation.
The first win was Northwestern, which gave Michigan everything it wanted and more. Win number two was Arkansas, which was involved in a back-and-forth battle with LSU and eventually lost by just one point. The final win was Washington, which was the easiest win of the day as the Huskies cruised over Purdue. Washington has truly been a different team at home vs. the road this season.
Miami (-17.5) at Virginia Tech
Opinions on the Hurricanes have come full circle. For the first two months, the U was back. Then the loss to Louisville and the loss to SMU, and suddenly, they were overrated. Now, on the outside looking in on the playoff, there's some momentum to play the disrespect card. Public sentiment aside, the Hurricanes have played well in the two most recent games, and they'll have to be on top of their game to hit this number. They do have a few things working in their favor this week, though. First, this game is at noon on Saturday, not on Thursday, Friday or Saturday night. Second, the Hokies' season is lost already, but next week is their rivalry game against Virginia, so a look ahead is possible. Most notably, though, is the Hokies' one-dimensional offense (34th in rush ypg) up against the Hurricanes' 3rd-ranked rush defense.
Missouri (+7.5) at Oklahoma
If you know me, you know I love fading teams off of big wins, and Oklahoma is coming off a huge win this past week. The Sooners have played really well over the past few weeks, with a close loss against Ole Miss, a narrow win over Tennessee, and another close win at Alabama this past week, but this might be a spot where they catch their collective breath and perhaps don't have the intensity needed to cover this number. Also working in our favor this week is the early start and the total, which is 41.5. This is expected to be a low-scoring game, so if the Tigers can just score a few times, they should be set.
Texas (-8.5) vs. Arkansas
I was on the Razorbacks this past week because they've been on a nice run since changing HCs, but I think that run might come to an end this week. Texas has not lived up to expectations this season, but there's still a path to the playoff, and that path involves an impressive win this week and a win over Texas A&M next week. While the latter seems unlikely, I think the 'Horns can take care of business this week. All good runs come to an end, and I think that even though Arkansas is playing well lately, the losses keep piling up, and the Hogs are probably ready to break.
Maryland (+14) vs. Michigan
Perhaps the biggest look-ahead spot of the entire season. Michigan is not going to the playoff; the Wolverines have had a decent year, but the only thing that matters to them right now is the Ohio State game next week. To think that they'll have any focus on an afternoon game in Maryland is absurd. Heck, I think they were already looking ahead this past week at Northwestern. Beyond the look ahead, Michigan just doesn't have the offense to cover a number this big on the road. Maryland has not had a good season, but they've got a QB in Malik Washington that can make plays, and he'll do enough to stay within the number here.
Washington (-10.5) at UCLA
I know, I know, I just went over how Washington is a different team on the road vs. at home, but I have a theory on that. I think Washington is struggling in traditional Big Ten cities like Michigan and Wisconsin, so a trip to a former Pac-12 team might have a different feel. Okay, that might be a stretch, but there is another reason to take the Huskies here, and that's the fact that all the goodwill the Bruins gained after beating Penn State is long gone after getting thumped by Ohio State and Indiana and losing at home to a Nebraska team missing its starting QB. Throw in a three-point home win over Maryland, and yeah, this team lost all its mojo. Anything they have left will be saved for USC next week.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season 33-27-0
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Jeff's Picks
Although it happened by the slimmest of margins, I went 5-0 this week in a much-needed bounce-back. It began with Clemson's win and ended with a nail-biter for the USC-Iowa Under. We also prevailed with a Marshall win, high scores for Texas A&M and South Carolina, and a Notre Dame beatdown. One more week like this, and I can get to 50 percent, which is better than most of the pundits I've seen out in the interwebs. It's not as good as my esteemed colleagues, but that's a loss I can handle
Virginia Tech +17.5 vs. Miami
It's been quite a week for Virginia Tech football. James Franklin is slated to be the team's new head coach, so a lot of change is in store in Blacksburg. The seniors couldn't care less, but the other players on the roster have two avenues to consider. This game sets up as the first audition for a spot on Franklin's squad next year. Issues surrounding playing time, NIL money, and a host of other intangibles will be at play, and although one might think all of the confusion would unsettle a squad in flux. I disagree. The Hokie faithful are pumped up by the news, as several players will stick around to see how they'll fit in with Franklin. I don't doubt Miami's desire to come in and post a significant number, but I think Virginia Tech will ride the momentum and keep the probable loss within this number.
Pittsburgh +2.5 at Georgia Tech
I took Pat Narduzzi's statements to heart last week, and sure enough, Pitt couldn't keep it within the number and fell to the Irish. I will trust his words again this week, as the Panthers can take their first step toward the ACC Championship with a win in Atlanta. Although Desmond Reid is questionable, the squad is mostly healthy, and the most compelling favor for Pittsburgh is the defense's success against mobile quarterbacks like Haynes King. Although the Irish won, CJ Carr was unable to make any run plays out of the pocket, and Florida State's Tommy Castellanos couldn't run against them either. King will have to let his arm do most of the work, which goes against Tech's usual procedure. Given Tech's recent results, the outlook isn't bright. Boston College's defense is much worse than Pitt's, and it carved up an offense that sputtered in the red zone. They also didn't present much of a pass rush, which is good news for freshman Mason Heintschel. Tech's best chance of winning is simply to outscore the Panthers, but I don't see that happening.
Arizona State -7 at Colorado
Although nothing is official yet, rumors of departures for Kenny Dillingham and Sam Leavitt are swirling in Tempe. Despite those distractions, the Buffaloes are not very good, and coach Deion Sanders' comments this week were "next year" this and "next year" that - definitely not a ringing endorsement for his current squad. Colorado has the advantage of playing at home, and I think that's one reason the spread is so narrow. ASU QB Jeff Sims has turned things around after not performing well as Leavitt's backup earlier in the season, but the job appears to be his. The Buffaloes have to contain Sims' running ability to have success, but that's a tall order for a defense that's yet to meet an actual dual threat like Sims. The shift to Julian Lewis at quarterback has served the Buffaloes well, but the defense still needs significant improvement.
Oklahoma -7.5 vs. Missouri
Momentum is riding high in Norman right now, as the latest CFP rankings place Oklahoma squarely within the field and can seal a berth if they beat Missouri and LSU. Wins against Alabama and Tennessee make them the best two-loss team with a shot, and it looks like they'll avoid a trip to the SEC title game unless things go south for the teams above them in the SEC standings. Missouri lives and dies behind Ahmad Hardy and an excellent running offense, but they'll hit a brick wall with the Sooners, who are among the best in the nation against the run. If the Tigers can't get things going on the ground, Oklahoma should be able to score enough points to cover this number.
Western Kentucky +21.5 at LSU
Sure, things could get out of hand, but do we really think LSU's offense can generate this much firepower? The Tigers are in the midst of a four-game losing skid and have failed to score more than 25 points over the last four games. Granted, the opposition was much more formidable than what they'll be up against this week, but momentum and emotion can often get the best of the Tigers, who are dealing with a lost season at 6-4. They are still favorites in this game, but the Hiltoppers have a decent offense that can put up the points. They nearly beat James Madison, a team that I'd put on par with LSU right now.
Last Week: 5-0-0 This Season 25-35-0
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