NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: West Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2025 presses onward to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the West region. Ryan Pohle examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: San Francisco, CA

Tip-off: Thursday

The overwhelming theme of the tournament thus far has been a lack of upsets, but that hasn't been the case in the West region. Three of the five double-digit seeds to make the Round of 32 came out of the West, with Arkansas pulling off arguably the biggest surprise by taking down No. 2 seed St. John's on Saturday. UConn nearly one-upped them the following day, but ultimately fell two short to Florida in a game it led throughout most of the second half. The madness continued late Sunday, with Colorado State pulling ahead by one after draining a three with seconds left before Maryland answered with a buzzer-beater in what was arguably the most exciting game of the weekend. 

With the matchups in the West now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland

Key Matchup: Walter Clayton vs. Ja'Kobi Gillespie

Outside of Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome, has anyone been better than Clayton this season? The senior point guard came through in clutch moments over UConn, leading the team with 23 points on 5-of-8 shooting from three. On the other end we have Gillespie, who isn't relied on for as much scoring as Clayton but facilitates the offense well with five assists per game and shoots the ball incredibly efficiently with 51/41/85 splits. He's also a pest on the defensive end, grabbing multiple steals in eight of the last 10 games, including four steals against Colorado St.

Florida will Win IF: It gets production from the role players. We all know what Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard contribute as the team's top-three leading scorers on the third-highest scoring offense in the country. The trio combined for 56 points against UConn, but nobody else scored more than seven, and it nearly cost them. The Gators might not be so lucky if that happens again. Thomas Haugh reached double figures in all three SEC tournament games but was held in check against the Huskies. Can Florida survive if one of its key contributors has an off night?

Maryland will Win IF: The offense matches the defense. The strength of this Maryland squad all season has been its presence on the defensive end. Sitting sixth in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, teams are only shooting 30.2 percent from deep against them this season (15th best) and have made just 10 threes across two tournament games. Julian Reese and Derik Queen are a presence in the paint, and I mentioned Gillespie's ability to turn you over. The problem is that Maryland gets little bench production, so it's up to their starting five to carry the load.

Player to Watch: Derik Queen, C, Maryland. The Terrapins are by led by its projected first-round pick in Queen, who is coming off the buzzer-beater and is averaging 14.5 points, 10.5 boards and a pair of blocks through two tournament games. He put up 31 points against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, and Maryland will likely need another big performance from its star to pull of the upset. The Big Ten Freshman of the Year has a whopping 15 double-doubles this season and will be a difficult matchup for the Gators regardless of the size it has to match up.

Prediction: A winner of seven straight games and 13-of-14 entering the Round of 32, Florida was looking like the best team in the country but looked beatable against a UConn squad that didn't even have its best shooting day. The Gators' experience proved to the be the difference late, but things don't get any easier against the best of the four seeds. Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel are all shooting over 37 percent from three on over two makes per game and a key element of this game will be how that trio shoots it from deep against a Florida team that has allowed opponents to shoot a lowly 29.3 percent from long-range. I think this game will play out similarly to each teams Round of 32 games in a tightly contested back-and-forth affair, with Florida ultimately pulling off the victory.

Sweet 16 Pick: Florida

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No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas

Key Matchup: JT Toppin vs. Jonas Aidoo

This will be an interesting matchup between one of the best players in the country in Toppin and a player that was re-inserted into the starting lineup for the first time since January to begin the NCAA Tournament in Aidoo. The Tennessee transfer led the way in Arkansas' upset over Kansas with 22 points, three steals and three blocks, but he dealt with foul trouble against St. John's and was limited to only 22 minutes. Toppin will give up some size to the 6-11, 240 pound Aidoo, but there haven't been many defenders able to slow him down, and that was especially evident Saturday when Toppin posted 25 points and 12 boards while missing just two shots.

Texas Tech will Win IF: it it shoots it well from the perimeter. Texas Tech has been heavily reliant on the three ball, with over 37 percent of its scoring coming from deep. Through the first two rounds of the tournament, the Red Raiders are a lowly 15-for-60 (25 percent) but have been able to get away with it against mid-major opponents in UNC-Wilmington and Drake. The absence of Chance McMillian has been notable in that regard considering he leads the team with 69 threes made on the season at a 43 percent clip.

Arkansas will Win IF: it continues to dominate the paint. The Razorbacks have struggled to shoot from the perimeter this season and during the tournament (8-of 43, 19 percent), but it hasn't mattered. Aidoo has been a force, frontcourt teammate Trevon Brazile has been efficient and it certainly doesn't hurt to have the 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic coming off the bench. That's translated well to the defensive end also, where teams have shot a lowly 36-of-94 (38 percent) from inside the arc through two tournament games.

Player to Watch: Darrion Williams, F, Texas Tech. Although Williams has been overshadowed by Toppin's standout season, the 6-6 junior has had an impressive campaign in a bigger role this season for the Red Raiders. Second on the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, Williams obviously contributes in a variety of areas, and it's no coincidence that the last two games he's missed have both led to losses. He was a major contributor in Texas Tech's win over Drake in the Round of 32, leading the team with 28 points on 61 percent shooting.

Prediction: One of the key things I'm keeping an eye on is that status of McMillian, who was reportedly probable for the start of the NCAA Tournament but ended up sitting out for a second and third consecutive game due to a lower body injury. I like Texas Tech's chances much more if the sharpshooter can suit up. The other thing to determine here is how good is Arkansas? Are the Razorbacks a flash in the pan that took advantage of an inconsistent and underperforming Kansas team and poor shooting St. John's team, or a squad that's finally living up to its talent and potential? And what kind of an impact will the likely return of Adou Thiero have on this team? At the end of the day, I think Texas Tech's combination of better guard play and having the best player will carry them to the Elite Eight in a tight ball game.  

Sweet 16 Pick: Texas Tech  

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