NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: South Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2025 moves onward to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the South region. Jesse Siegel examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Atlanta, Georgia

Tip-off: Friday

Perhaps fittingly, the South region pits two teams apiece from by far the two best conferences in the country this season.  The SEC and the Big Ten will face off in each of the Sweet 16 clashes.

In what has been an extremely chalky tournament thus far, the top overall seed remains in the form of the Auburn Tigers.  The Tigers had little difficulty disposing of the alma mater of rapper 2 Chainz, No. 16 Alabama State, in their tournament opener.  The Tigers then held off a talented No. 9 Creighton squad with a second-half surge despite just eight points from standout forward Johni Broome.

Auburn will face the No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16.  Michigan is riding a five-game winning streak, four of which have come against ranked opponents.  The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament, avoided the classic 12-5 upset scare from UC San Diego in their March Madness opener, and then overcame a deficit of their own with a scorching second half to defeat Texas A&M by a score of 91-79.

On the other side of the region, the lowest remaining seed is No. 6 Ole Miss.  The Rebels are no slouch, though, having dispatched of both No. 11 North Carolina and No. 3 Iowa State in rather dominant fashion.  The Rebels held double-digit leads for most of both contests.  The Rebels will face No. 2 Michigan State.  The young Spartans shook off slow starts against both No. 15 Bryant as well as No. 10 New Mexico to make it this far.  This Sweet 16 is extra sweet for coach Tom Izzo, who has advanced this far as the head coach of the Spartans a staggering 16 times.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan

Key Matchup: Auburn's Johni Broome versus Michigan's Danny Wolf. Broome is in the conversation for the John Wooden Award as the National Player of the Year.  Meanwhile, Wolf has been terrific as a transfer from Yale, averaging nearly a double-double while also acting as one of the primary playmakers for the Wolverines on offense.  The two ballers have different offensive games; Broome operates largely as a post player, while Wolf can really handle the ball on the perimeter despite standing at 7-feet, 250-pounds.  Nevertheless, the offense for each squad largely runs through these two big men.

Auburn will Win IF: the Tigers can win the rebounding battle.  Michigan has two seven-footers in the form of Vladislav Goldin and the aforementioned Wolf, and is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Auburn is certainly no slouch on the boards, but this may be one of the few times this season in which the Tigers may be outsized.  Michigan also won the rebounding matchup in both of their wins against UC San Diego and Texas A&M; the Aggies in particular were a superb rebounding team during the season.  Auburn already dispatched of Creighton despite the size advantage for 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner of the Bluejays.  If the Tigers can turn the tables on the Wolverines on the glass, or at least hold their own, that could go a long way towards winning this contest.

Michigan will Win IF: the Wolverines can hold the Tigers under 45-percent shooting from the field.  Auburn is one of the highest scoring squads in the country, averaging 83.8 points per tilt.  The Tigers are also shooting 48.1-percent from the field on the campaign, which is also in the upper tier.  However, when Auburn has struggled shooting the ball, the Tigers have been more vulnerable.  In three of their five losses, the Tigers have scored fewer than 80 points.  In three of those five losses, they shot between 5-7 percentage points under their season average.  Meanwhile, Michigan's opponent field goal percentage ranked near the top of the NCAA, as the Wolverines allowed just 40.1-percent shooting from the opposition.  Michigan's defensive effort will need to be elite if the Wolverines have any chance of coming away with a win.

Player to Watch: Tahaad Pettiford, G, Auburn.  The freshman has started just one game this season for the Tigers, but he can be a dynamic catalyst off the bench.  After averaging 11.5 points per tilt during the regular season, Pettiford's points per game average has jumped to 19.5 in the tournament.  He was on the floor to close out the win over Creighton and excelled with his exceptional ballhandling, shot-making and foul shooting.  Especially with Chad Baker-Mazara and Chris Moore nursing injuries, Pettiford's contributions will be even more important against the Wolverines.

Prediction: The Big Ten as a conference has been exceptional during the Big Dance, and Michigan was the cream of the crop following its win during the conference tournament.  The Wolverines already dispatched of one SEC foe in the form of Texas A&M, but Auburn has been arguably the best team in the country this season.  The Tigers are deep and talented, plus they have the star power with Broome on the interior to contend with Michigan's twin towers.  It will be a dogfight, but Auburn squeaks out the victory.

Sweet 16 Pick: Auburn  

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No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 2 Michigan State

Key Matchup: Mississippi's Sean Pedulla versus Michigan State's Jeremy Fears.  The point guard battle between Pedulla and Fears will be a crucial matchup to watch in this contest.  Both players are in their first season with their respective schools, but otherwise have taken vastly different paths to get here.  Pedulla spent three years at Virginia Tech before transferring to Ole Miss.  Pedulla started every game for the Rebels and has scored 20 points in each of the tournament wins.  Pedulla also has notched 13 assists over that span and has been terrific from beyond the arc this season as well, hitting 39-percent of his shots from downtown.  Fears, meanwhile, is a redshirt freshman who was a highly-touted recruit for the Spartans but missed most of the 2023-2024 campaign after suffering a gunshot wound to his leg.  Thankfully, Fears made a full recovery, and has even thrived, during his first full campaign.  The MSU point guard finished third in the Big Ten in assists.  This clash of offensive catalysts decide this tilt.

Mississippi will Win IF: the Rebels continue to stay hot from three-point land.  Ole Miss shot 40-percent from three-point range in the opening win over UNC, then hit a staggering 57.9-percent of its treys in the blowout victory over Iowa State.  These figures stand in stark contrast to the regular season, in which the Rebels shot just 34.8-percent from downtown, which was only 8th in their own conference.  Moreover, Michigan State was the top team in the entire country in defending the three-point line, allowing just 27.8-percent of makes from beyond the arc.

Michigan State will Win IF: the Spartans continue to share the basketball.  Michigan State is a stellar defensive team with an offense that prides itself on unselfishness on offense.  The Spartans do not necessarily rely on one or two offensive players, but move the ball around and find the open shot, regardless of the name on the jersey.  The Spartans notched 14 assists in the win against Bryant, and 16 dimes in the triumph over the Lobos.  Nine players on Michigan State scored and played double-digit minutes in the victory over New Mexico.  Collectively, the Spartans play "team basketball", and this must continue if Michigan State hopes to keep pace with the Rebels, who can score in bunches.

Player to Watch: Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State – Since Richardson entered the starting lineup on February 8th, he is averaging 16.2 points per contest.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Spartans have gone 11-2 over that span.  Richardson actually had a streak of 12-straight contests with double figures in points snapped in the second-round win over New Mexico.  Richardson shot just 1-of-10 from the floor, but the Spartans still found a way to win the contest.  That bodes well for the Spartans heading into this Sweet 16 clash, as Richardson is unlikely to put up another clunker.

Prediction: Offense gets the fame, but defense wins the game.  The old adage is likely to come true in this matchup as well, as Ole Miss has been playing a bit above its head through the first two games of the tournament, particularly in terms of three-point shooting.  The combination of some regression to the mean as well as a tough defensive opponent will likely prove too much for the Rebels.  Look for a big game from the freshman sensation Richardson as well.  The Spartans march on.

Sweet 16 Pick: Michigan State

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