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March Madness 2025 Bracket Analysis: The NCAA Tournament Gospel
What's the best part of writing about college basketball? March Madness. What's the worst part of writing about college basketball? Predicting March Madness. Everyone wants advice in March. "You watch all year, you must have some incredible insights!" The truth is, I don't always even win the bracket pool among my neighbors or law school friends. Let's be honest; your boss who couldn't name one player on Auburn or pick Cooper Flagg out of a lineup has a better shot at winning.
That's what the Madness brings; you're bombarded with statistics, formulas, diagrams, depth charts and "gut feelings". And, after all that time spent crunching numbers and doing research, your spouse who picked the games by color ends up with a better bracket than you. Or your four-year-old son picks No. 16 UMBC to beat No. 1 Virginia. Yes, that actually happened.
But fear not, my friends. There is hope for us yet. All hail, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel". The following five rules have been passed down for eons. These tenets have been collected over the years, revised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. I don't always pick the Final Four correctly, but when I do, these are my guidelines. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. I'm begging you; please do not pick all four No. 1 seeds to make it to the Final Four. First of all, how is that fun? Secondly, the numbers do not back up that "strategy" anyway. The only time since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just four times in the same year in the modern era. Last year, two of the four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.
2. If you don't like a higher-seeded squad, pick it to go out as soon as reasonably possible. So, if you don't believe in, say, Houston, pick the Cougars to lose once they get past the No. 16 seed. You'll be the only one who picks that game correctly, and even if it's an incorrect selection, you wouldn't have had Houston going that far anyway.
3. There are no bragging rights for picking a No. 10 over a No. 7 seed, or a No. 9 over a No. 8 seed. These are not upsets. All those teams are basically even. If you need proof, take a look at some of the betting lines for these games. Take bigger risks! Even the 11-6 matchup is starting to not feel like an upset anymore. And forget about 12-5, which will be explored in the next rule.
4. While we're on the subject of upsets, pick at least one 12-5 trap game. The gap between conferences is shrinking. Soon you're going to need to pick that Cinderella darling seeded 13 or lower to truly be able to pat yourself on the back for an upset. In 33 of 39 years since the tournament expanded, at least one No. 12 seed has dispatched of a No. 5 seed. In fact, historically, the No. 12 seed wins about 35% of the time versus the No. 5 seed. Last year, two No. 12 seeds knocked off No. 5 seeds; Grand Canyon defeated Saint Mary's, and James Madison took down Wisconsin. This year, a No. 12 seed (Colorado State) is actually favored over No. 5 Memphis.
5. Pick at least one seed lower than a 10 to make the Sweet 16. Last year's qualifier was NC State, as the No. 11 Wolfpack rode a wave of momentum all the way to the Final Four. Besides, I'd rather pick the games by which mascot would win in a fight than pick all favorites.
Now that you're primed to fill out that winning bracket, let's take a more in-depth look at the regions.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
MIDWEST REGION
This region has the chance for the most madness. Houston has been superb again this season, and the Cougars have made the Sweet 16 in five-straight tournaments. However, the highest rated No. 2 seed, Tennessee; the Vols played in by far the toughest conference in college basketball this season, and were consistently ranked in the top 5 for most of the year. Likewise, Houston could have to face a vastly under-seeded Gonzaga squad in the second round before even thinking about a potential clash with the Vols. Tennessee could have issues of its own with a stellar Utah State squad in round two, followed by an SEC duel with No. 3 Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
Meanwhile, you might mistake the McNeese State Cowboys for Cinderella when all is said and done. Behind former LSU head coach Will Wade, the Cowboys dominated the Southland conference and have won 22 of the last 23 contests heading into the Big Dance. And the Cowboys draw Wade's alma mater in the form of No. 5 Clemson in the first round.
SOUTH REGION
The No. 1 overall seed in the tournament resides in the South, as Auburn managed a staggering 16 Quadrant I victories this season, navigating a treacherous SEC schedule en route to the regular season crown. Though the Tigers have lost three of the last four games heading into the big dance, including to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, all losses came against ranked opponents, and the complete body of work was still impressive enough to allow this juggernaut to achieve top billing, both in the tournament as well as the South Region. While Duke can make a case, the Tigers have been the most consistent and battle-tested squad during the 2024-2025 college basketball season. Michigan State looks like the only true potential competition for the Tigers in this region, and the Spartans have been playing over their heads the entire season. That being said, it may be foolish to bet against Tom Izzo in March.
The upset special for this region is No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan. Yes, the classic 12-5 trap game. After winning the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan will be a chic pick to advance far in this region, if not upset Auburn in the Sweet 16. Head Coach Dusty May has already been to the Final Four with FAU. However, the Tritons come into this matchup with the nation's longest active winning streak, having won 15-straight contests, and all but two of them were by double-digits. One of the higher scoring teams in the nation, the Tritons shoot almost 30 three-pointers per contest, and as we know, the triple is the great equalizer in the NCAA Tournament. UC San Diego is thrilled to just be here, but it should also be viewed as a dangerous foe for the Wolverines. The Tritons epitomize what March Madness is all about. If there is any program in this region that can wear Cinderella's glass slipper, it's UC San Diego, which could ride the wave behind stellar three-point shooting.
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WEST REGION
In another example of the committee ignoring geography entirely, the Florida Gators are the No. 1 seed in the West region. And St. John's, with a home base in Queens, New York, is the No. 2 seed. Coach Rick Pitino has led his sixth different school to the NCAA Tournament. St. John's won the regular season Big East crown for the first time in 33 years, and the Big East Conference Tournament for the first time since 2000. The Johnnies are looking for their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999.
There are several dangerous lower seeds here, including two-time defending champion UConn at No. 8, Drake at No. 11, and white-hot Colorado State at No. 12. Grand Canyon pulled off an upset as a No. 12 last season, but will have a difficult matchup as No. 13 this time around against an uber-talented Maryland squad. An intriguing matchup pits No. 7 Kansas against No. 10 Arkansas in a clash of coaching juggernauts (Bill Self vs. John Calipari). Whoever advances will likely face the aforementioned Pitino with a shot at the Sweet 16.
EAST REGION
Duke is the cream of the crop in this region. As long as Cooper Flagg's ankle is fine, the Blue Devils will be a huge favorite to advance to the Final Four in San Antonio. Alabama sits at No. 2 with an experienced, veteran-laden squad, but has an extremely tough path with potential foes like Saint Mary's, Wisconsin and/or BYU. The Cougars at No. 6 have played extremely well in the Big 12 this season and could be a popular lower seed to advance to the Sweet 16 or even the Elite 8, but a round one matchup with VCU is far from a guaranteed victory.
The No. 4 and No. 5 squads could be in danger in this region. No. 4 Arizona is notorious for early tournament exits, and No. 13 Akron is no joke. Meanwhile, the classic 12-5 trap game has No. 12 Liberty thinking upset against No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks were largely overlooked for some reason, but the Flames can really shoot the triple. As such, Liberty certainly appears to have more than a fighting chance.
FINAL FOUR
Picking upsets correctly -- and bragging about it to anyone within earshot -- is one of the proudest traditions of March Madness. However, I will leave you with one last bit of advice when picking your Final Four and ultimately, your National Champion. While it is true that all four No. 1 seeds have only advanced to the Final Four in the same year once, since the tournament expanded a No. 1 seed has won the whole enchilada over 64 percent of the time. More specifically, 25 of the 39 winners were No. 1 seeds. Moreover, 35 of 39 winners were either No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seeds. In the last 25 years, only Connecticut, both as a No. 4 seed in 2023 and as a No. 7 seed in 2014, won it all as a seed lower than No. 3. And UConn won last year as a No. 1 seed. So while I wholeheartedly encourage upsets in the early rounds, the best strategy for picking the 2025 National Champion may be to stick with the higher seeds.
The SEC ended up with a staggering 14 schools in the NCAA Tournament. Thus, it would seem to make sense that the winner will either be from that super-conference, or have to go through multiple squads from that conference. Duke has barely been tested in a down year for the ACC, but do not let that fool you. Cooper Flagg is one of the best NBA prospects since LeBron James, Kon Knueppel was the ACC Tournament MVP when Flagg went down, and the rest of the squad is not too shabby either. Duke seems headed on a collision course with Tennessee, whom despite being the No. 2 squad in the Midwest has an extremely favorable draw. Meanwhile, even with the recent slide, it seems difficult to bet against Auburn.
Rounding out the Final Four participants, while Florida is going to be maybe the most popular pick to advance, this seems like a season of destiny for St. John's. The Johnnies can win in a variety of ways, and will be a handful for the Gators. In the National Championship, I'm looking at a rematch between Duke and Auburn; the Blue Devils bested the Tigers 84-78 in an early season clash, which was the only loss for Auburn for many months. While coach Bruce Pearl and star player Johni Broome will hope to exact revenge, Flagg and company will prove too much. Do you know it has been 10 years since Duke won the title? That should be considered a drought for such a storied program -- a drought that will end in April when the Blue Devils cut down the nets.
Good luck with your brackets, and enjoy the madness!
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