Sweet 16 Preview: East Region

Site: Boston
Tip Off: Friday, March 23

Carnage reigned supreme in the other three regions, but the East comes to Beantown largely in tact, and exactly as I expected a week ago. Only No. 5 West Virginia comes to Boston as a lower seed, and with the region having the lowest total sum of seeds combined, there should be some tremendous action at TD Garden. The East now features two of the nation's most efficient offenses facing off against two of the nation's best defenses, giving us an incredible clash in styles.

No.1 Villanova vs. No. 5 West Virginia

Key Matchup: Villanova's guards vs. West Virginia's press. This entire preview is setting up to be rather repetitive, as I feel most fans should know exactly what to expect in this contest. West Virginia will press and force tempo. Villanova starts three guards, plays a fourth at least 29 minutes and they all shoot at least 39.1 percent from 3-point range while rarely turning the ball over. I'm not sure there is a scenario where West Virginia isn't extending 94 feet, and Villanova shooting fewer than 30 3s. If the shots fall, the 'Cats win. If they don't fall, or West Virginia forces 15+ turnovers, there's potential for an upset.

Villanova will win IF: They take care of the ball. West Virginia ranks second nationally in turnover percentage defense, forcing mistakes 23.4 percent of the time. Villanova counters with the 11th best turnover percentage offense, coughing it up only 14.7 percent of the time. I expect the pace to be high in this contest, leading to high possession counts. So long as Villanova isn't careless and makes smart passes against the Mountaineers press, they should see enough open looks to prevent them from a game-long shooting slump.

West Virginia will win IF: They limit 'Nova's 3-point shooting. By in large, both teams are statistically similar in most categories except behind the arc. Villanova ranks 11th the country in 3-point shooting at 40.2 percent, while the Mountaineers' and their press give up a ton of open outside looks, ranking 307th nationally in 3-point defense. In the Wildcats' four losses, they've connected on 27.6 percent from outside (35-of-127). Villanova is deep and rarely turns the ball over (11th in turnover percentage), so they're unlikely to be worn down by West Virginia's style. If the 'Cats are connecting from the outside, there may not be much West Virginia can do.

Player to Watch: Daxter Miles, West Virginia. Teammate Jevon Carter is playing like a man who doesn't want his career to end, putting up 24.5 points, 6.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds and a ridiculous 5.5 steals through the first two games, while hitting 54.3 percent from the floor. And maybe he can do it all by himself, but the Mountaineers need to give him some help. Miles had only 18 total points in the first two games after averaging 22.0 over his final three prior to dancing. If he returns to that form, West Virginia can suddenly throw some counter punches to what I expect will be a clicking Villanova offense.

Prediction: Villanova wins comfortably. With so many other team's struggling in their first two games, the Wildcats cruised through the first weekend with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. West Virginia's strengths seem to play into Villanova's, while the 'Cats can also exploit the Mountaineers' 3-point defense. They looked like the best team in the tournament last week, and I see no reason to expect a change Friday.

No. 2 Purdue vs. No 3. Texas Tech

Key Matchup: The frontcourts. Texas Tech has a respectable 4.2 rebounding margin despite starting four guards and a center in Norense Odiase who hasn't scored in three games while playing just 21 minutes. Purdue, even without Isaac Haas, counters with two starters north of 6-foot-8, including Vincent Edwards, who poured in 35 points in the tournament's first two games. The Boilermakers are a capable perimeter team, but the opportunity to exploit a Texas Tech front line that allowed 38 points in the paint against Florida is there for the taking.

Purdue will win IF: They impose their will. This is a clear battle of offense versus defense, with Purdue ranking second nationally in offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting, and sixth in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom. While Texas Tech isn't Virginia defensively, they rank fourth in defensive efficiency, 14th in 2-point field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage per KenPom, and 17th in turnover percentage. Purdue possesses the offensive balance that can wear down the Raiders D over 40 minutes.

Texas Tech will win IF: They defend the arc. Notice a theme here? While defensive 3-point can largely be a product of your opponent, season-long success defending the perimeter is a trend. Both of the Raiders' opening weekend opponents came in shooting the 3 at a 37.0 percent clip or better, but combined to go 11-of-36 (30.6 percent). Purdue ranks second nationally, hitting 42.1 percent from downtown. Limiting the Boilermakers' 3-point success can help negate the trouble Texas Tech had defending the paint in their second round win over Florida, and potentially make a balanced Purdue attack more one dimensional.

Player to watch: Carsen Edwards, Purdue. There's no shortage of options for this spot, with the health of Haas remaining a storyline, while Texas Tech freshman Zhaire Smith had a fantastic opening weekend of the tournament. But a week ago, I felt Edwards and his opponent here in Texas Tech's Keenan Evans were the two most important pieces in this region. While Evans played well and looks fully healthy, you could argue Purdue won in spite of Edwards rather than with him. A 46.2 percent shooter who hits 40.9 from 3-point range, Edwards went 8-of-29 from the floor and 4-of-14 from 3-point range last weekend. This comes on the heels for a 4-of-16 (2-of-7) showing against Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. Facing a team of the Red Raiders' defensive prowess, it seems unlikely the Boilermakers can advance if Edwards' slump continues.

Prediction: This is a classic head versus heart battle for me, as I am a huge believer in the Red Raiders and their defensive efficiency, but I believe Purdue is the better team. I can see a scenario where either side wins, which has this game feeling like a coin flip, and the only real prediction I feel confident in is a close, hard fought battle. If forced to decide, give me the head choice over my gut. The Boilermakers are better offensively and make enough plays to advance.