This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Overview
The Feb. 4 college hoops slate once again features 10 games although this time both DraftKings and FanDuel are completely aligned. No exclusive games for either site.
With this in mind, the three games I'm concentrating on are: Tennessee-Alabama, Duke-Boston College, and Penn State-Michigan State. All three of these games have over/under totals around 145, so they figure to have the greatest potential for DFS purposes. Outside of those three games, Auburn-Arkansas and Mississippi State-Kentucky are also worth examining because their over/under totals are just a notch below the other three. It almost goes without saying but you'll first and foremost want to consider taking a Blue Devil because they have the highest expected point total among all teams on the slate.
Top Players
DraftKings
Paul Reed, F, DePaul ($9,100 DK, $8,700 FD)
Reed certainly earns his enormous price tag. He averages the most fantasy points per game among all the players on the slate. That being said, tonight's matchup isn't ideal. I'm slightly concerned because Xavier actually has the second-best offensive rebounding rate in the Big East since conference season started. This naturally means Reed might grab fewer rebounds than usual, and that could be the difference. All things considered, I'm ultimately passing on Reed because he has a high bar to clear, and I'm not sold that he'll get there.
Xavier Tillman, F, Michigan St. ($8,900 DK, $8,300 FD)
Tillman has scored 33-plus fantasy points in each of his past four games and is generally a safe bet to put up fantasy points. His matchup tonight is very favorable as both teams love to play at a fast tempo and Penn State is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big Ten since conference season started (they rank bottom-four in both offensive and defensive rebounding). I strongly suggest considering Tillman.
Reggie Perry, F, Mississippi St. ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD)
Perry has returned to form after having his only bad game of the season back on Jan. 25 against Oklahoma. Other than that one game, Perry has scored 20-plus fantasy points in every game this season. He's playing at Kentucky tonight, which isn't easy. Nonetheless, Kentucky's rebounding numbers are average for SEC standards so that shouldn't scare you away. Perry warrants consideration given his track record, although it seems that his ceiling is a little lower due to the opponent.
Jalen Smith ($8,700 DK, $8,600 FD)
Smith is scorching hot but I think he might cool off tonight. His matchup is surprisingly difficult, as Rutgers has the 12th-best defensive efficiency in the country, and on top of that, the Scarlet Knights have better rebounding rates than the Terrapins since conference season started. Smith will put up numbers, but I think his price is inflated due to his current hot streak. I'm passing on Smith given the price and opponent.
Value Plays
Kyle Young, F, Ohio St. ($4,800 DK, $4,800 FD)
Young is a hit-or-miss player but does have the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating in the country (among qualified players, per KenPom). He has a favorable matchup in tonight's game because Michigan currently has the second-worst defensive efficiency in Big Ten games this season.
Brandon Johns Jr., F, Michigan ($4,700 DK, $4,900 FD)
Johns is coming off his best game of the season and has seen significant playing time lately. In his last five games, Johns is averaging 30 minutes per game while scoring 10.4 points. Johns also has a knack for offensive rebounding and blocking shots.
Wendell Moore, Jr., F, Duke ($4,400 DK, $4,700 FD)
Moore recently returned from a hand injury and was pretty rusty in his first game back on this past Saturday at Syracuse. He has a much easier matchup tonight, so there's a reasonable chance he'll return to form and contribute to an easy victory.
D.J. Stewart, Jr., F, Mississippi St. ($4,900 DK, $4,900 FD)
Stewart has been more involved lately, averaging 33 minutes and 10.4 points in the last five games. He scored 20-plus fantasy points in three of the five games so he should put up similar numbers assuming his playing time remains the same.
Jalen Coleman-Lands, G, DePaul ($5,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
There isn't much value on Draftkings, but Coleman-Lands could possibly represent a significant value play in FanDuel. Coleman-Lands is averaging 36.0 minutes and 13.8 points in his last five games. His team is expected to score around 69 points tonight, so he should see plenty of scoring opportunities.
Gabe Brown, F, Michigan St. ($4,800 DK, $4,500 FD)
Brown only played three minutes in his last game due to illness but should be closer to 100 percent now that he's had a few days to recover. Assuming that's the case, Brown is a great value play because he's hitting 41 percent of his three-point attempts in conference play (15-of-36) and Penn State is far more vulnerable behind the arc than inside the paint.
Game to Target
Tennessee at Alabama (-5.5), o/u 146.5, 7pm ET
This game has the highest over/under total on the slate and features an Alabama team that has the third-fastest tempo in the country. The ideal conditions for a prime DFS game.
Starting with the Vols, John Fulkerson ($6,300 DK, $6,000 FD) is a highly efficient scorer and leads the team in rebounds. Santiago Vescovi ($6,200 DK, $4,900 FD) is almost a must-start in FanDuel contests. He has the highest usage rate on the team (among healthy players) and is averaging 33 minutes in his last three games. Jordan Bowden ($6,100 DK, $5,200 FD) similarly has one of the highest usage rates on the team. Yves Pons ($6,000 DK, $5,700 FD) plays the second-most minutes on the team while taking 19.6 percent of his team's shots when on the court. Josiah-Jordan James ($5,700 DK, $5,100 FD) missed the previous game and is game-time decision entering tonight.
For the Crimson Tide, Kira Lewis, Jr. ($8,100 DK, $7,100 FD) leads the team in minutes played and possessions used. John Petty, Jr. ($7,700 DK, $6,500 FD) sees the second most minutes on the team while taking 20 percent of his team's shots while on the court. Petty is an outstanding shooter, having made 66-of-144 shots from behind the arc this season. Jaden Shackelford ($5,900 DK, $5,300 FD) has the second highest usage rate on the team and leads the team in three-point attempts. Alex Reese ($5,800 DK, $5,200 FD) is one of the most efficient players on the team although he plays fewer minutes compared to the other starters.
Game to Fade
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-2), o/u 130.5, 7pm ET
This game has the lowest over/under total on the slate and doesn't have a whole lot going on. If you're determined to have a Hokie or Yellow Jacket in your lineup, then your options are:
Landers Nolley II ($8,000 DK, $6,400 FD) leads Virginia Tech in minutes played and has one of the highest usage rates in the country at 32.9 percent of possessions used while on the court. Tyrece Radford ($5,800 DK, $5,700 FD) sees inconsistent playing time but currently has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the country among qualified players (per KenPom). Wabissa Bede ($6,100 DK, $5,100 FD) is the team's starting point guard and has the highest assist rate in the ACC since conference season started.
For the Yellow Jackets, James Banks III ($6,600 DK, $6,600 FD) plays the second-most minutes on the team and leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Jose Alvarado ($6,300 DK, $6,500 FD) is the team's starting point guard and played all 40 minutes in his team's most recent game against Notre Dame. Michael Devoe ($6,700 DK, $6,300 FD) has one of the highest usage rates on the team but is currently a game-time decision, having missed the past three games. Moses Wright ($6,600 DK, $6,100 FD) is another significant contributor as he leads the team in percentage of shots taken while on the court. Jordan Usher ($4,200 DK, $4,600 FD) sees inconsistent playing time but occasionally puts up 20-plus fantasy points. Note: Virginia Tech is weaker at guarding the paint so Georgia Tech's front court might benefit from the matchup.
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