This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin ($9,100 FD, $11,000 DK): Happ's matchup on paper is nothing to write home about, as he draws KenPom's No. 36 defense and a team in the bottom third of the league in tempo. The Badgers also have one of the slate's lowest implied point totals as road underdogs. That said, Happ is as close to matchup proof as it gets, and is probably my favorite play among the stars Tuesday night. Nebraska lost starting center Isaac Copeland (14.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg) to a torn ACL on Saturday, which could very well kill their tournament hopes. The Huskers already ran a tight rotation, so now his minutes will have to go to the likes of 6-8 senior Tanner Borchardt and 6-11 freshman Brady Heiman. Those two will probably double Happ along with the likes of 6-8 Isaiah Roby, but it won't be enough. I expect all three to get taken to school by the All-American. Even in a case where the Huskers sell out completely on defense to defend Happ, look for the senior to rack up assists. Last year, Happ had a 25/11/6 line with four blocks in one game against the Huskers, and a 19/11/2 line with four steals. They had a healthy Copeland in both matchups.
Dedric Lawson, Kansas ($8,900 FD, $10,200 DK): Lawson is coming off back-to-back games with 20+ points and 15+ rebounds. He's attempted a combined 35 shots from the field over that span, and sat a total of just
Top Players:
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin ($9,100 FD, $11,000 DK): Happ's matchup on paper is nothing to write home about, as he draws KenPom's No. 36 defense and a team in the bottom third of the league in tempo. The Badgers also have one of the slate's lowest implied point totals as road underdogs. That said, Happ is as close to matchup proof as it gets, and is probably my favorite play among the stars Tuesday night. Nebraska lost starting center Isaac Copeland (14.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg) to a torn ACL on Saturday, which could very well kill their tournament hopes. The Huskers already ran a tight rotation, so now his minutes will have to go to the likes of 6-8 senior Tanner Borchardt and 6-11 freshman Brady Heiman. Those two will probably double Happ along with the likes of 6-8 Isaiah Roby, but it won't be enough. I expect all three to get taken to school by the All-American. Even in a case where the Huskers sell out completely on defense to defend Happ, look for the senior to rack up assists. Last year, Happ had a 25/11/6 line with four blocks in one game against the Huskers, and a 19/11/2 line with four steals. They had a healthy Copeland in both matchups.
Dedric Lawson, Kansas ($8,900 FD, $10,200 DK): Lawson is coming off back-to-back games with 20+ points and 15+ rebounds. He's attempted a combined 35 shots from the field over that span, and sat a total of just three minutes. If he were a few thousand cheaper than Happ, I'd say go for it, but I'm not seeing enough of a price break here for those of us who only make one lineup. For the mass entry folks, I'd lean towards roughly a 60-30 split, with 10 percent fading both and going for more balance. Texas has the No. 31-ranked defense and are No. 286 in tempo, per KenPom. Like Wisconsin, the Jayhawks find themselves as road underdogs, though they do have a slightly higher implied total. Unlike Nebraska, however, Texas has a few post players in 6-11 Jaxson Hayes and 6-9 senior Dylan Osetkowski that should at least be able to challenge Lawson.
Nicolas Claxton, Georgia ($8,500 FD, $9,400 DK): Claxton seems an excellent play on paper tonight, as he draws an Arkansas team with an average defense and fast pace in the game with the highest over/under on both main slates. It will be a difficult one-on-one matchup, however, as he draws the 6-11 Daniel Gafford (1.9 bpg, 9.2 rpg) in the paint. The sophomore is currently a projected first-round NBA draft pick by most accounts. Claxton might be able to draw Gafford away from the basket with his outside shooting -- he's nailed five treys in his last three games -- but expecting a ceiling game probably isn't wise. I'm looking elsewhere for my starpower tonight.
Games to Target:
Arkansas (-7.5) vs. Georgia, o/u 152.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
While I expressed a little hesitation with Claxton, you're going to want to find your way into this game one way or another. Arkansas plays with the second-fastest tempo on the Tuesday slate, while Georgia clocks in with a top-100 pace themselves. My gut instinct says the best way to tackle this is to look to the backcourt for salary relief. With Jordan Harris unlikely to play due to a head injury, Tyree Crump ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) could end up as one of the best values on the slate. He started Saturday in place of Harris, where he logged 21 points, five assists and three rebounds over 32 minutes for a total of 34.8 DK points. For Arkansas, I'm looking at Mason Jones ($6,600 FD, $7,000 DK), especially at that FD price. He's had a tough run against top-100 defenses that include Texas Tech and Tennessee, but Tuesday could be his chance to get back to early-season production. He has the highest usage rate of any Arkansas player over the last 10 games, and doesn't even need an up-tempo game to produce. He scored a near-season-best 39 DK points back on Jan. 9 against Florida, event though the team as a whole recorded just 51 points.
NC State vs Virginia (-7), o/u 138.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
While I'll never advocate using anyone against Virginia, especially with all the volatility in the NC State rotation resulting from the Markell Johnson situation, the Cavaliers get a massive tempo boost in this one. NC State plays at the second-fastest tempo on the slate, checking in at No. 17 in the country, according to KenPom. This means that Ty Jerome ($7,600 FD, $7,700 DK), De'Andre Hunter ($7,400 FD, $6,700 DK) and Kyle Guy ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK) are all in play for me, with most ancillary options representing serviceable fillers. My favorite for cash games is Guy, as he hasn't been under 20 DK points since November, and brings with him a ceiling in the 40s.
Game to Fade:
Michigan (-9) vs. Ohio State, o/u 129, 9:00 p.m. EST
While the Wisconsin/Nebraska game at least has some exploitable matchups, this one is another Big Ten grinder with horrific tempo numbers. Per KenPom, Ohio State is No. 20 on defense and No. 272 in tempo, while Michigan is an even worse matchup, checking in at No. 1 in defense and 316 in tempo. At least salaries have adjusted, as the most expensive player on DraftKings is Kaleb Wesson at $7,100 ($7,300 FD). The only play I seriously considered is Iggy Brazdeikis on DraftKings, where he's just $6,500 after scoring 40.75 and 33.25 DK points in his last two games. That allure is lost for me on FanDuel, however, where he'll cost you $7,700.
Value Plays:
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin ($6,100 FD, $5,400 DK): If your GPP strategy is to fade Ethan Happ, it should involve working in Reuvers too. Any off-game for Happ means monster numbers for Reuvers. He was in foul trouble against Northwestern, but logged 39.5, 20.8 and 31.8 DK points in his previous three.
Abdoulaye Gueye, Georgia Tech ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK): Since missing two games with a leg injury, Gueye is back in the starting five, and has produced 31.5 and 23.0 DK points. His name comes up for me because of the major pace boost, as UNC checks in with KenPom's fifth-fastest adjusted tempo rating.
Anthony Gaines, Northwestern ($6,100 FD, $4,800 DK): This applies mostly on DraftKings, where he's hit 4x for six consecutive games, yet still remains under $5k. The matchup isn't great, but his minutes and presence in the starting five are.
Nassir Little, UNC ($6,000 FD, $4,800 DK): There's no indication he's any closer to starting, but coming off a 23/6/3 line in just 20 minutes against Virginia Tech might mean the projected lottery pick finally close to reaching his potential.
Mamadi Diakite, Virginia ($5,400 FD, $4,400 DK): Probably safer for GPPs, but is a regular starter, scored in double figures in two-straight and has a ceiling in the 30s. Throw in a big pace boost for the Cavaliers and I'm sold.
