This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
CBB DFS Picks & Preview: Best Plays for Saturday's NCAA Tournament Final 4
Our final full-roster slate of the season is set for Saturday's Final Four, and it's going to be a challenging one. Seemingly all players are priced down, putting everyone well in play, and the Auburn - Florida game has a massive 25-point higher scoring expectancy. That sets it up to be heavily targeted, and makes Duke/Houston contrarian. Or does it? Because it's difficult to see people thinking differently; stack Tigers and Gators, or stack Cougars and Blue Devils just to think you're having a unique opinion. The truth is going to lie in the middle, where balance from both games is going to be the winning strategy.
But there's $20,000 available to the first place winner who guesses correctly. We tip at 6:09 p.m. EDT from San Antonio.
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CBB DFS Top Targets
Walter Clayton, G, Florida ($8,500)
Under no circumstance am I suggesting, or will I be fading Johni Broome ($9,700) or Cooper Flagg ($9,500), and I think it's vary reasonable to fit both into lineups, or one and Clayton. He hung 30 on Texas Tech in the Elite 8 and has at least 22 points in seven of his last night setting up a stable floor. If we buy the pace, we know Clayton will have ample assist opportunities, and he rebounds well for a guard to boot. He went for 44.5 DKP against Auburn in early-February by way of a 19-9-6 line, suggesting upside to combat those that are all in on a Broome/Flagg pairing.
L.J. Cryer, G, Houston ($7,200)
Truth be told, I think Cryer is going to struggle offensively, given the size disparity anyone Duke puts on him will have. But you can't argue with his role/volume, averaging 33.0 minutes and 13.4 shot attempts over his last 10 games. Whether the shots go in, or if the Cougars generate enough offense for him to get assists remains in doubt. It's easy, and I'm probably doing so, but fading the Houston offense makes sense. He's the only piece I'm really willing to entertain, and can move on from their attack (knowing full well someone pops out of no where).
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Middle Tier
Khaman Maluach, F, Duke ($6,100)
Maluach hasn't been under 18.25 DKP in his last seven, so we can hopefully pencil in a 3x floor, and he's averaged 11.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks over that stretch, playing 24.0 minutes, all up over his season-long numbers. Duke's been shortening their rotation, so I think Maluach can see 25+ here, barring foul trouble. He's got a massive size advantage over the Cougars frontcourt, so he should be vital in their efforts to control the glass, and I can't see Houston challenging him one-on-one when it has the ball. If the Cougars do, he's getting blocks. There's 5x upside.
Alex Condon, F, Florida ($6,000)
This feels more like the contrarian play than any semblance of loading up on Duke/Houston players. Condon hasn't done squat of late, while backup Thomas Haugh ($7,000) is surging. I expect a lot of eyeballs on cheaper backcourt options from Florida too in Alijah Martin ($6,300) and Will Richard ($5,800), which results in Condon being the forgotten man. The form is not great, 8.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists in his last six, but he also posted a 17-10-6 line against Auburn in season. If we get something in between those lines, he's out-performing the price with low roster percentages.
CBB DFS Value Plays
Sion James, G, Duke ($4,700)
Stable floor, minimal upside, but a starting role at a sub 5k price. James has posted double-digit fantasy points in 10 straight games, averaging 28.6 minutes, 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists. No real additional analysis is needed; he's assured of quality minutes, the game script is less than ideal, but James at least has a size advantage to shoot over offensively and grab easy defensive boards.
Dylan Cardwell, F, Auburn ($4,500)
Given the slate's pricing, you should be able to live in the $5,000 tier above Cardwell and not really need to dip into bargain options. But Cardwell gives us a starting frontcourt option that seemingly locks in 20+ minutes. It's a slog to find anything he does well that returns fantasy scoring, rather steady and unspectacular. He's averaging 18.6 fantasy points over his last five, a steady 4x return despite meager 4.4 point, 6.6 rebound averages. His size is notable against Florida's front line, and he went for five points and 12 boards when they previously faced off.
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