This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Several intriguing power conference matchups once again fill the college basketball board Wednesday. Steve Peralta breaks down some of the action and shares his best bets of the day.
Connecticut at 
Marquette
The Huskies were looking unbeatable for most of the season but have since come down to earth. During last week's Big East road trip, Connecticut suffered its first loss of the season against a scorching-hot Xavier team before losing to Providence, arguably just as hot as Xavier. In any event, UConn displayed a strong bounce-back performance in its most recent game against Creighton, winning by a comfortable nine-point margin. Despite the two recent losses, UConn is still a legitimate championship contender, boasting exceptional efficiency on both ends of the court, highlighted by the fact that it's the only team in the country that ranks top eight in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. UConn is also one of the best rebounding teams, ranking top-50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, which will likely come into play Wednesday because Marquette's biggest weakness has arguably been its lack of rebounding. The Golden Eagles are rebounding well below the D1 average on both ends of the court, so this matchup advantage for UConn cannot be overlooked.
Marquette has built up a great resume over the past month, but there's still significant room for improvement, mostly on the defensive side. The Golden Eagles offense is comparable to the Huskies', but the same cannot be said for their defense, which ranks No. 80 in adjusted efficiency. While that's a bit low compared to other good teams, its performance against Big East opponents is much more concerning. Through six conference games, Marquette is allowing Big East opponents to make 55 percent of two-point field goal attempts, the worst in the conference. Despite its inefficiency, Marquette has still found some success on the defensive end thanks to its incredible ability to cause turnovers, recording the highest defensive turnover rate among all Big East teams during conference play. This is an effective saving grace against most opponents, although the advantage is neutralized against a team like UConn, as the Huskies' have the second-lowest offensive turnover rate in the conference.
This game won't be easy for either team, but ultimately I'm trusting UConn's balanced attack and massive rebounding advantage will make all the difference.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -2.5
Indiana at 
Penn State
Indiana has been reeling over the past month, and the game isn't getting any easier. Entering Wednesday, the Hoosiers have lost five of their last six games against major-conference teams, with their only win coming at home against Nebraska. Indiana has also played four games away from home since the start of December, and it lost all four. Indiana's poor performance is further underscored when looking at its results against the spread. The Hoosiers are currently riding a six-game losing streak against the spread and have covered just one time out of the last eight games. It's a bad stretch of performances any way you look at it. To make matters worse, Indiana already lost starting senior point guard Xavier Johnson to injury on Dec. 17, but it also just recently lost starting senior forward Race Thompson to injury in the game at Iowa. Indiana still has plenty of talent on the roster, but replacing experienced players is easier said than done.
Penn State, meanwhile, has had a couple of bright moments over the past month, most notably winning handily at Illinois by 15 points on Dec. 10, and then more recently beating Iowa on New Year's Day. Penn State is winning most of its games with its offense, which does several things very well. At the top of the list, Penn State currently has the lowest offensive turnover rate among all D1 teams. Additionally, Penn State's lineup is full of long-range shooters. The Nittany Lions are making 38 percent of their three-point attempts, the 17th-highest percentage in the country, but what makes this number even more impressive is that they also shoot three-pointers more often than most teams, recording the 14th-highest three-point attempt rate among all D1 teams.
With Penn State playing at home on Wednesday, it has a good chance of maintaining its elite shooting numbers. Indiana's defense hasn't been great during conference play, currently ranked ninth in defensive efficiency among all Big Ten teams, so I'm betting the Nittany Lions will put up a ton of points. I'm on the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn St. -2.5
TCU at 
Texas
TCU was at the top of its game when it went on the road and took down Baylor in a thrilling finish, winning 88-87. Considering the energy and intensity it exerted for that victory, it was only natural for TCU to have a letdown in the following game on Jan. 7, when it lost a close home game against Iowa State, 69-67. Then again, this is life in the Big 12, where Baylor and Texas Tech are somehow sitting in the cellar, with both still winless in conference play. Regardless of the close loss, TCU is still playing great basketball over the past few weeks, collecting wins over Iowa, Providence and Utah, in addition to its two Big 12 wins. The Horned Frogs are proficient on both ends of the court but are particularly excellent on defense, currently ranked third-best in efficiency among Big 12 teams during conference play.
Texas enters Wednesday's game sporting an identical record as TCU, 13-2 and 2-1 in the conference, but something seems a bit off lately. Since losing their initial head coach on Dec. 12, the Longhorns have only covered the spread twice in seven games, with its defense suddenly and surprisingly becoming a liability. Just over a week ago, Texas was ambushed at home by Kansas State and allowed 116 points in a loss. This is only one game, so we don't want to overreact, and the Longhorns' defense did return to form against Oklahoma State in the following game. Still, this is still alarming for a team that was at the top of the charts defensively at the beginning of the season. When looking at its other games against conference opponents, the story doesn't get any better for Texas. Through three conference games this season, Texas has the second-worst defensive efficiency among Big 12 teams, which is not an encouraging sign any way you look at it.
These two teams played three times last year, and although TCU lost both of the regular season games, the Horned Frogs ultimately got the last laugh, defeating Texas in the Big 12 tournament, 65-60. Many of the starters who played in that game will once again play in Wednesday's matchup, so this is something to consider. Either way, I'm expecting a close game that comes down to the final minute. I'll take the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU +6
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- UConn -2.5
- Penn St. -2.5
- TCU +6
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