This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Butler at 
St. John's
St. John's enters Tuesday on a five-game skid but don't let that scare you away. The Red Storm is coming off a brutal stretch of Big East opponents, playing Providence, Xavier, Marquette, Villanova, and Seton Hall. The first three teams currently stand atop the Big East standings, and all five opponents rank top-65 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings, so we can't shame St. John's too much for its recent results. The Red Storm barely lost its most recent game at Providence, 83-80, so the team is still playing relatively well despite the loss column suggesting otherwise.
Butler, meanwhile, has a 2-4 record in conference play, with its two victories coming against Georgetown and DePaul. And even with playing against two of the worst defensive teams in the Big East, Butler's offensive stats are awful, to say the least. Through six conference games, Butler's offense ranks last in the Big East in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding rate, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. Not a good offensive team any way you look at it. And now the Bulldogs must travel on the road to face the Red Storm, a team desperate for a win after facing the top of the Big East.
All things considered, St. John's offers a promising 'buy-low' opportunity. St. John's started the season at 11-1 before suffering through its five-game gauntlet against the top of the Big East (save for UConn), so the Red Storm is still a solid team, capable of running up the score on inferior opponents. I'm backing the home team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: St. John's -4.5
Illinois at 
Nebraska
Illinois was looking good early in the season, but it has since been mired by inconsistent play. The Fighting Illini have yet to win back-to-back games since the start of December, and overall they have lost four of six games outside of their home arena. Their last two games away from home were particularly ugly, taking a 22-point loss to Missouri on a neutral court before losing by 13 at Northwestern. Both of these trends will be put to the test on Tuesday, as Illinois is coming off a home victory and must now travel to Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers and their stingy defense. Illinois will need to improve its own defensive play if it wants to avoid an upset, as Illinois has the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during conference play. Although Illinois has just four conference games under its belt, this is still somewhat alarming considering that three of its past conference opponents were Maryland, Northwestern, and Wisconsin, three teams that are weaker on offense compared to other Big Ten teams.
Nebraska has gone through many losing seasons in recent years, but it's finally showing signs of improvement in its fourth year under head coach Fred Hoiberg. The Strength of the team is its defense, ranking No. 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Nebraska had its first major win back on Dec. 4 at Creighton, winning 63-53 and holding Creighton to its season-low in scoring. About a week later, Nebraska hosted Purdue and held the Boilermakers to 56 points in regulation, before finally losing in overtime, 65-62. And then more recently, Nebraska hosted Iowa on Dec. 29, dominating them in a 66-50 victory, also holding Iowa to its season-low in scoring. The Cornhuskers might not be great offensively, but it doesn't matter so much when their defense plays lights out.
Looking at the bottom line, it all comes down to the fact that Illinois has several red flags, and now it's laying points on the road against a team with a stout defense. I'll take the home team and the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska +3
North Carolina at 
Virginia
North Carolina stumbled at the end of November, but the Tar Heels are now back on the right track. Since losing on the road at Virginia Tech on Dec. 4, North Carolina has won six of seven games, collecting victories over Ohio State and Michigan over that span. Its only mistake was a two-point loss at Pittsburgh, which is actually a respectable outcome considering the Panthers' recent success. While North Carolina's four-game slide earlier in the season was slightly concerning, the Tar Heels' ceiling is still among the highest in the country. This is a team that returned four significant starters from last year's team that made a run to the national championship game, so anything is possible with this group of players. North Carolina already has a couple of quality wins, and nearly defeated Alabama back in November, before losing in the fourth overtime period. This team has the talent and experience to beat anyone. One key injury note: Pete Nance recently suffered an injury a week ago and is still working his way back. On Monday, North Carolina coach Hubert Davis announced that Nance would be a game-time decision, but that he 'appears to be trending in the right direction' according to Davis. Without Nance, North Carolina's core is undoubtedly still good enough to get the job done, but this is another factor to consider.
Virginia, on the other hand, has taken a slight step back over the past month. The Cavaliers have lost three of six games, including two on the road to ACC opponents. While all three of these matchups were incredibly challenging, effectively Quad 1 games, per KenPom, Virginia has still underachieved nonetheless. This point becomes crystal clear when looking at its performance against the spread. Virginia has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games, making it hard to give the Cavaliers the benefit of the doubt for the time being. They are bound to cover eventually, but I'm not sure that's likely to happen when laying points against an elite North Carolina team with a long and highly successful track record.
One other important matchup note, these two teams played each other twice last year, and North Carolina dominated in both games. First, the Tar Heels won 74-58 at home, then they won again 63-43 in the ACC tournament. Both of these teams rank top-15 in highest roster continuity from last season, per KenPom, so these outcomes carry a bit more weight than usual. Nearly all of the starters from last year's games will once again be on the court for Tuesday's matchup. I like our shot at history repeating itself. I'll take the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina +4.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- St. John's -4.5
- Nebraska +3
- North Carolina +4.5
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