This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We're down to the home stretch of the regular season, as March seeding comes into focus. Like most Tuesdays, we have several high-profile taking the court in an effort to move up or perhaps avoid moving down the seeding chart. Here are my predictions for three select college hoops games on Tuesday evening.
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Georgia 
at Florida 
The Bulldogs began the year on a high note, winning 14 of their first 16 games, earning resume-building wins over St. John's and Kentucky; but, unfortunately, the season has been a disaster ever since, as they've lost nine of their last 11. The primary problem for Georgia in recent games has been a complete lack of defense, getting torched for 79 points per game in its previous four.
In stark contrast, the Gators have established themselves as legitimate contenders, collecting coveted wins against Tennessee (by 30 points) and Auburn (by nine points), among many others. Florida has won six straight games since its last loss, so it's firing on all cylinders as we approach March.
When Florida has the ball on Tuesday, its elite offense has a colossal advantage on the glass. The Gators are among the best at offensive rebounding in the nation, boasting the 10th-highest percentage, while Georgia is among the worst, ranking 307th in defensive rebounding and last in the SEC. This is the last trait you want against a high-powered offense like this, one that has the fourth-highest offensive rating among all D-1 teams. Georgia's defense isn't bad, ranking 35th in efficiency; however, it's relatively soft on the interior. In addition to the rebounding issue, Georgia's defense ranks below the SEC average in two-point field goal percentage, allowing almost 51 percent to conference opponents. Florida, as one might presume given its rebounding abilities, is a force inside the paint, making 55 percent of two-point attempts against SEC opponents, the third-highest mark in the league.
When Georgia has the ball, it will also enjoy an advantage on the glass, albeit not as pronounced as the visitors'. The Bulldogs have the 14th-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, nearly matching Florida. However, the difference is that the latter is slightly better on the defensive glass, ranking 118th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is still a noticeable edge, and it should give Georgia some second chance opportunities on Tuesday. The Bulldogs also have an advantage when it comes to drawing contact, logging the 41st-highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation, again noticeably higher than the Gators' defense, which ranks 115th in free-throw attempts allowed.
In hindsight, it's easy to see how Florida dropped 89 points on Georgia when these two teams clashed precisely one month ago in Gainesville. The Bulldogs struggle to stop opposing teams from getting extra possessions, an issue that's hard to overcome in any game, never mind against a high-powered offensive team. Georgia's offense struggled early in the conference season, but it's played better in recent games, scoring at least 70 points in four of its last five games. Considering the location and how each team matches up against one another, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 148.5
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Northwestern 
at Minnesota 
This matchup has all the makings of an old-fashioned Big Ten game.
Offensively, the Wildcats are highly proficient at protecting the ball and collecting offensive boards, but, unfortunately, they're terrible at shooting. Against conference opponents, Northwestern has made 49 percent of two-point attempts (second-worst) and under 33 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the worst effective field goal percentage in the league. Its conversion rate from long-range isn't the worst, but I should note that Northwestern lost guard Jalen Leach a couple of weeks ago, and he was the team's most accurate three-point shooter, having made 39-of-99 (.394) before suffering a season-ending injury. For additional context, Leach still has the second-most three-point attempts on the team despite missing the last four games. The lack of a reliable long-range scoring option will likely hurt Northwestern in this matchup, as Minnesota has proven to have a formidable interior defense. The Gophers have held Big Ten opponents to under 52 percent on shots inside the arc, the sixth-best mark in the league.
The Gophers, meanwhile, will have to play against a defense with a similar interior strength. Northwestern's defense has also held conference opponents to under 52 percent, giving the home team a comparable challenge. Minnesota has played inconsistently on offense throughout the season, ranking 103rd in efficiency among all D-1 teams and fourth-worst in the Big Ten during conference play. Given the sub-par nature of its play, it's not surprising to see that Northwestern's defense outranks Minnesota's offense in several critical categories: efficiency, turnovers, two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages. The Wildcats rank 50th in defensive efficiency, an acceptable standing, with its best skill being causing chaos, ranking 51st in turnover percentage. Their biggest weakness is free-throw attempts allowed, the worst in the Big Ten, but, coincidentally, Minnesota is among the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation, making under 67 percent on the season, 337th in the country.
And the last note, but surely not least, both teams prefer slowing the game down to a grinding halt. Minnesota has the longest average offensive possession length among all Big Ten teams during league play, while Northwestern has the second-longest average length. And they're not just slow by Big Ten standards; Minnesota ranks 359th in adjusted tempo for the whole season, with Northwestern again right on its heels as 318th.
The Gophers have held each of their last three opponents to under 70 points while also scoring under 70. This includes games against USC and Penn State, two teams that prefer to push the pace. Considering the styles and strengths of the teams involved, I believe we'll have a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 131.5
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Gonzaga 
at Santa Clara 
The Bulldogs have only lost two games at Spokane all season long, and one came courtesy of Santa Clara, 103-99, just over a month ago. After looking at how these two teams compare against each other, it's easy to see how the Broncos caused problems for the host team.
Gonzaga is renowned for its all-world offensive attack, and a significant part of its production stems from its effort on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs have the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage among WCC teams during conference play, which gives it an advantage against most teams; however, in this matchup, Santa Clara's defense can match it, also boasting the second-highest rebounding percentage in the league. Naturally, Gonzaga has the overall edge at this end of the court, leading the conference in offensive efficiency, although Santa Clara's defense isn't too far behind, ranking third. It's also important to note that the Broncos are effective at guarding inside the paint, holding WCC opponents to 52 percent, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.
Santa Clara's offense is not quite as elite as Gonzaga's, but it's still highly proficient in its own right. Since the conference season started, the Broncos have the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the WCC, again not too far from Gonzaga at this end, where the Bulldogs' defense ranks second in efficiency. The key to Santa Clara's success has been its shooting, arguably the best in the conference. Against WCC foes, the Broncos have made 57 percent of two-point attempts and a league-leading 40 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the highest effective field goal percentage in the conference. On possessions where they don't make their initial shot, they've proven capable of consistently generating second-chance opportunities, ranking third in the WCC in offensive rebounding percentage, outranking Gonzaga's defense, which is fourth in rebounding.
Not much has changed since these two teams last played each other. Gonzaga has only lost twice since then, both to Saint Mary's. Santa Clara has lost three times since then, twice to Saint Mary's and another at Oregon State. Either way, the Broncos have already demonstrated that they have what it takes to take down Gonzaga.
They're also coming off their best shooting performance of the season, making 23-of-38 (.605) of three-point attempts at Washington State. It's hard to imagine the Broncos coming close to matching that precision, but at the same time, this wasn't an accident. Santa Clara scores 40 percent of its total points from beyond the arc, the 15th-highest percentage among all D-1 teams, so it truly lives or dies off the three-point shot. Lately, it's been thriving off it, shooting at a blistering pace over its last six games. Since the start of February, Santa Clara has made 80-of-174 (.460) of its three-point attempts. It has shot under 37 percent in just one instance in that span, a 34 percent performance against LMU. Playing at home, I'm betting the hot streak will continue. I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +6.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Georgia at Florida - Over 148.5
- Northwestern at Minnesota - Under 131.5
- Santa Clara +6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
