This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The conference season tips off for several college hoops teams on Tuesday's slate as we prepare to welcome in the New Year. For other teams, like those in the Mountain West, the conference action heats up, having already started earlier in the month. Here are my predictions for three intriguing matchups on New Year's Eve.
Arizona State 
at BYU 
The Sun Devils won nine of 11 non-conference games, a respectable record as they prepare for their first expedition through a Big 12 conference season. Arizona State earned a pair of quality wins when it defeated New Mexico and Saint Mary's en route to winning the Acrisure Classic in Palm Springs during Feast Week, but that's the extent of its highlights from the past two months. The Sun Devils dropped their two toughest games, losing to Gonzaga by eight points in mind-November before losing by 17 points to Florida in mid-December, so they have some work to do against Big 12 teams if they want to feel confident about hearing their name on Selection Sunday in March.
The Cougars similarly won nine of 11 non-conference games, although only one registers as a quality victory. BYU defeated N.C. State by 11 points on a neutral court in late November, and they had two other opportunities for resume-building wins. The Cougars nearly defeated Mississippi but lost in overtime, and then they lost at Providence when star forward Bryce Hopkins made his much-heralded return. BYU dominated everyone else on its schedule, but now the difficulty gets turned up a notch.
The matchup between Arizona State's offense and BYU's defense is just about even, with the Sun Devils ranking 73rd in offensive efficiency and the Cougars at 76th on defense. That said, the road team doesn't look as sharp in a few important categories. Arizona State ranks 172nd in offensive turnover percentage and 274th in offensive rebounding percentage, two areas where BYU excels defensively. The Cougars rank 89th in defensive turnovers and first in rebounding percentage. Arizona State also has a knack for not securing the basketball, ranking 255th in offensive steals, another advantage for BYU, which is 99th in defensive steals. Another long-term offensive issue for the Sun Devils is over-reliance on perimeter scoring. They can make long-range shots, but they've made just 51 percent of shots inside the arc, a number that's unlikely to improve on Tuesday considering BYU is holding opponents to under 46 percent, the 43rd-best mark in the nation.
When playing in the other direction, BYU has the overall advantage, with its offense ranking 30th in efficiency compared to 43rd for Arizona State's defense. The Cougars are proving to be a dangerous offensive team because they do nearly everything at a high level. The only areas where they rank below average are free-throw attempts and percentage. Besides those two categories, BYU ranks in the top 25 of the nation in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage. It's hard to find many faults with Arizona State's defense, also strong in most areas, with the one exception being turnovers, where it ranks 278th. The Sun Devils also struggled against teams that are exceptional at scoring, allowing over 80 points to Gonzaga, New Mexico, and Florida.
One last note, the Cougars are getting a pair of starters back in the fold. Egor Demin and Richie Saunders are expected to return from injury, per BYU head coach Kevin Young.
Overall, BYU has an edge in scoring, rebounding, and turnovers. On Tuesday, it also has the home-court advantage. The spread isn't small, but that's okay. I'm laying the points with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -9.5
Colorado State 
at San Jose State 
The Rams recently recorded their best win of the season, a two-point road victory over Nevada, but they followed it up with a tough loss to New Mexico. The Lobos have a realistic shot of winning the Mountain West, so this isn't a bad loss necessarily, but certainly a missed opportunity. Either way, Colorado State also defeated TCU earlier in the season, giving them multiple quality wins, per KenPom.
The Spartans, meanwhile, don't have any quality victories on their resume. They won five of 12 games against D-1 opponents, with their best win coming against a UTEP team that ranks 141st in overall efficiency.
Colorado State holds a decisive advantage in many areas when these two teams clash on Tuesday. Offensively, the Rams have a massive edge over the Spartans' defense. San Jose State ranks 246th in defensive efficiency, a poor rating that's made worse because it doesn't do many things well, if any. The Spartans rank well below average in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and defensive rebounding. One problem in particular has been their interior defense, where they're allowing opponents to make 55 percent of two-point attempts, 289th in the nation. This is a terrible stat against most teams, and it's welcome news for the visitors as the Rams are making 56 percent of shots inside the arc, the 59th-best mark. Colorado State hasn't shot quite as well from the perimeter, so the fact that it's playing an opponent with a soft spot in the paint should not go unnoticed.
Defensively, the Rams again outrank their opponent, entering Tuesday with the 87th-best efficiency rating compared to the 133rd-best offensive rating for the Spartans. San Jose State isn't awful offensively, but it's far from great. It doesn't collect many offensive boards, 264th in offensive rebounding percentage, and it doesn't shoot well at close range, making under 51 percent of its two-point attempts. But even if the Spartans posted a high percentage on attempts inside the arc, they still face a tall task on Tuesday because the Rams have a great interior defense, holding opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts.
Colorado State has made the NCAA tournament in two of its past three seasons, and while this year's squad might not make the cut, it's still led by a veteran group, 60th in D-1 experience, with a well-respected head coach. Road conference games are never a gimme, but I like our odds in this spot. I'm laying the points with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -3.5
Utah State 
at Nevada 
Win-or-lose on Tuesday, the Aggies ended 2024 with impressive results. Utah State has won 12 of 13 games, with its only blemish being a two-point home loss to UC San Diego. The Aggies have collected wins over Iowa, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Saint Mary's, and San Diego State. In my article for last Saturday, December 28, I picked Utah State to cover and detailed why I thought it might even win straight up. Sure enough, the Aggies escaped San Diego with a win, although I have different visions in mind for Tuesday's clash.
The Wolfpack enter Tuesday with an 8-5 record, but don't let the number of losses deceive you. Nevada is still a tough team. It defeated VCU on a neutral court earlier in the year, a high-quality victory per KenPom, and it only lost by two points to Vanderbilt in its only other opportunity for a quality win. The Wolfpack also defeated Washington and Oklahoma State by double-digits, though neither of those victories carries much weight at the moment. Nevada ranks 83rd in strength of schedule, giving us a team that has already been well-tested. Add all this up, and we can see why KenPom favors Nevada in 14 of its 18 remaining conference games, starting with Tuesday.
When Utah State has the ball on Tuesday, it faces a Nevada defense that does many things well. The Wolfpack rank 85th in defensive efficiency and hold a similar standing in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. The latter is crucial because the Aggies are not a sharp-shooting bunch, making 31 percent of shots from beyond the arc. Nevada is also built to handle Utah State's other strength, snagging offensive boards. The Aggies boast the 19th-highest offensive rebounding percentage, a nice benefit in most games, but the Wolfpack rank 86th in the same category on defense.
When the Wolfpack has the ball, it too will have to deal with a challenging defensive team. Utah State is strong in many areas on defense, although one category where it falls below average is two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to make over 52 percent. Nevada has shot well all season, making almost 54 percent of shots inside the arc, over 41 percent beyond it, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 25th among all D-1 teams. Another important note is that Nevada appears poised to withstand Utah State's best defensive attribute. The Aggies make a living off theft, logging the 16th-highest defensive steal percentage. The home team, as it turns out, takes exceptional care of the ball, ranking 10th in offensive steal percentage.
In looking at each team's record, one might not be so quick to back the home team, but further investigation reveals why the Wolfpack is expected to win. Given how it matches up against its opponent and its locational advantage, I'm betting on Nevada in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nevada -3
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- BYU -9.5
- Colorado State -3.5
- Nevada -3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
