This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got plenty of betting options on Saturday's college hoops offering as the slate is loaded with several big matchups. Here are my predictions for three select games tipping off in the afternoon.
UCLA 
vs. Arizona
The Bruins have won eight of nine games to start the season, including the last seven. Their only loss came against New Mexico on a neutral court near Las Vegas back on Nov. 8 as the Lobos jumped out to an 11-point halftime lead before winning 72-64. UCLA has played well outside of that matchup, though hasn't beaten any quality teams other than their most recent nailbiter against Oregon. The Bruins rank 310th in strength of schedule, per KenPom, so the record is a bit deceiving.
The Wildcats, in contrast, have played a brutal schedule and have the record to show for it. Arizona has lost four of eight, with all its losses coming against teams with a realistic chance of making the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin torched Arizona's defense on Nov. 15, but they've been a bit tougher since having only conceded more than 70 points in regulation. The Wildcats rank 38th in defensive efficiency and are above average in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, defensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. They're also limiting opponents to 44 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the 27th-best mark in the nation. The Bruins are decent offensively at 50th in efficiency, though they don't appear to have any significant advantages over the Wildcats' D.
When going in the other direction, Arizona's potent offense will face UCLA's lockdown defense. The Bruins boast the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation and the highest turnover percentage, yet they're 151st in defensive rebounding percentage. The Wildcats sit eighth in offensive rebounding percentage, so it's a decent bet they'll win the battle of the boards.
Given the location of Saturday's matchup and Arizona's significant advantage on the offensive glass, I like the Wildcats' odds of covering the small spread.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona -3.5
LSU vs. SMU 
These two teams are nearly tied in KenPom's overall efficiency standings with LSU ranked a few spots higher at No. 52. That being said, a closer look reveals one lists notable advantages.
When LSU has the ball on Saturday, it'll face an SMU defense that isn't great while still doing a few things well that should help get plenty of stops. The Mustangs rank 86th in defensive steal percentage, an important ability as the Tigers are not great with ball security at 278th in offensive steal percentage. SMU is also effective on the defensive glass ranking 100th in rebounding percentage, another important area because LSU's best offensive skill is arguably collecting offensive boards at 27th. The Mustangs' ability to control the paint is also important since LSU isn't great for long-range scoring at under 32 percent from beyond the arc. SMU is seventh-best at holding opponents on two-pointers at under 42 percent, so the Tigers will likely find points hard to come by if the interior defense holds up.
On the others side, SMU will be going up against a decent LSU defense that ranks 55th in efficiency, but has one major flaw at 327th in defensive rebounding percentage made even worse by the Mustangs sitting 10th in offensive rebounding. Safe to say they'll have many put-back opportunities on Saturday. The Mustangs rank 30th in offensive efficiency and are top-100 in many important categories such as effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and free-throw attempt rate.
LSU might look better on paper, though SMU is well-equipped to take advantage of the Tigers' weaknesses. I'm laying the points with the Mustangs.
College Basketball Best Bet: SMU -4
Tennessee 
at Illinois 
The Volunteers have won all nine of their games so far, but their perfect record will be tested as they face their toughest challenge. Before this matchup, Tennessee won at Louisville and against Baylor on a neutral court to provide a couple of decent results.
The Fighting Illini, meanwhile, already list a couple of blemishes suffering their first loss to Alabama before more recently blowing a 10-point second-half lead against Northwestern. The defeats were disappointing, yet Illinois also defeated Arkansas by 13 and Wisconsin by six, giving us a team that's flashed a high ceiling.
Compared to past years, Illinois has shown the most defensive improvement ranking 16th in efficiency, fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed, 15th in defensive rebounding, 41st in free-throw attempt rate allowed, and 18th in two-point field goal percentage allowed. These strengths are critical in this matchup as Tennessee has posted impressive offensive numbers to start the season at third in effective field goal percentage, 11th in offensive rebounding, and first in two-point field goal percentage. This side of the court is pretty much even, with Illinois seemingly prepared to take away the things that Tennessee does well.
At the other end, most college hoops fans are well aware of Tennessee's elite defensive reputation with the team once again sitting near the top of many defensive categories. The key in this matchup will likely hinge on Illinois scoring enough points on a solid defense. The good news is that it ranks highly in most offensive areas - including turnovers and rebounding - so there doesn't appear to be an area of weakness Tennessee can target. When comparing the offenses, it's worth pointing out Illinois is better in turnovers and getting to the charity stripe, two traits that could make all the difference.
It's tough to bet against Tennessee, but I'd argue it's more difficult to win 10 straight against D-1 basketball teams. This is what the Vols are attempting to do, and the 10th win will need to come in a hostile environment in Champaign. I'm going with the home team here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois +1.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Arizona -3.5
- SMU -4
- Illinois +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
