This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday's college hoops slate brings us another full day of intense conference tournament action. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's picks, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Friday.
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Wisconsin 
vs. UCLA 
This pick is all about Wisconsin's offensive attack and how it stacks up against UCLA's defense.
The Badgers emerged as one of the top offensive teams in the nation, recording the 12th-best adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams and the second-best during the Big Ten conference season. The Bruins were similarly great on defense throughout the whole season, 15th in defensive efficiency in the nation, but they weren't quite as sharp during conference play, ranking fifth in the Big Ten. UCLA's best defensive skill is causing chaos, boasting the fifth-highest defensive turnover percentage in the nation. Still, one of Wisconsin's best traits is protecting the ball, logging the 19th-lowest offensive turnover percentage. A fair case can be made that the Badgers' best skill is its concentration at the charity stripe, where it's made 83 percent, the highest percentage in the nation. This is again a helpful trait in this matchup because UCLA's biggest defensive weakness is fouling, as it ranked 232nd in free-throw attempts allowed. The Bruins' other area of concern is in the paint. They allowed Big Ten Opponents to make almost 54 percent of two-point attempts, 12th in the league, which gives the Badgers an area to attack. Wisconsin made nearly 56 percent of two-point attempts against conference foes, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Both teams also have tremendous numbers at the other end of the court, though not entirely up to the same elite level. The Bruins finished the conference season with the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten, but the Badgers again have the edge with the third-best defensive rating. UCLA shot the ball relatively well against league opponents, logging the fifth-highest effective field goal percentage. Still, Wisconsin was just as good at limiting opponents, ranking fifth defensively in the same category. The Bruins were also active on the glass, posting the seventh-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference. Unfortunately for them, however, this strength is again countered by the Badgers, who finished the conference season with the second-best defensive rebounding percentage.
These two teams only met once, in a tight game in Westwood. UCLA won by two points, but Wisconsin trailed by a point with under a minute left, so either team had a legitimate chance to win at the end. Given the Badgers' outstanding scoring ability and how they matched up against the Bruins, I like Wisconsin's odds of getting revenge on Friday. I'm taking the Badgers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -1.5
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Marquette 
vs. St. John's 
By now, most college hoops fans are undoubtedly well aware of St. John's Big East supremacy and its top-notch defense. The Red Storm ranks second in adjusted defensive efficiency among all D-1 teams and was second to none in the Big East. During conference play, St. John's led the league in the following defensive categories: efficiency, effective field goal, turnover, three-point, two-point, and steal percentages. It was also second in block percentage. It ranked seventh in rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, giving it two areas where it's not at the top of the charts. Unfortunately for Marquette, the Golden Eagles had the lowest free-throw attempt rate in the Big East, so they're less likely to take advantage of St. John's slight tendency to foul.
Marquette is a highly proficient offensive team, ranking fourth in efficiency during the Big East conference season, but they didn't shoot it as well as one might think. Against league opponents, the Golden Eagles made under 53 percent of two-point attempts and under 32 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the fifth-worst effective field goal percentage in the Big East. They made up for the relatively inefficient shooting by protecting the ball, where it ranked first among Big East teams in offensive turnovers, and offensive rebounding, where they ranked third.
St. John's has also endured shooting issues but has overcome the challenge, thanks to its elite numbers in other categories. Most notably, the Red Storm boasts the ninth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, which is a critical stat in this matchup because Marquette is terrible on the defensive glass, ranking 254th in rebounding percentage. St. John's is also careful with the ball, ranking third in offensive turnovers, which again is important to mention because the Golden Eagles have the third-highest defensive turnover percentage. Overall, Marquette has the edge at this side of the court, as its efficiency ranking (second in the Big East) is a bit higher than St. John's (seventh). That said, St. John's has demonstrated that it's well-equipped to succeed.
This will be the second time these two teams have played at Madison Square Garden this season. The Johnnies won the first matchup by six points in early February. The rematch in Milwaukee on March 8th was a bit tighter, though St. John's again emerged victorious after an overtime period, 86-84.
Even though the Golden Eagles almost won the recent encounter, they still haven't looked great over the past several weeks. They have lost six of their last 11 games and fell into a 14-point second-half hole against Xavier in the Big East tournament before surviving at the last minute.
Considering how St. John's matches up against Marquette, I like the Johnnies' odds of pulling away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Red Storm.
College Basketball Best Bet: St. John's -4.5
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BYU 
vs. Houston
BYU is scorching hot, winning their last nine games, the nation's eighth longest active win streak. During this stretch, it has defeated West Virginia (twice), Kansas, Arizona (on the road), and Iowa State (twice), among others. It has accomplished this feat primarily with an explosive offensive, recording the ninth-highest adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams. It is also one of the top shooting teams in the nation, making 59 percent of two-point attempts (fifth-highest) and almost 38 percent of three-point attempts (25th-highest), yielding the fourth-best effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. Its other strength is on the glass, ranking 78th in offensive rebounding percentage. It ranks below the D-1 average in turnovers and free-throw attempts. The former will likely be an issue against Houston's ferocious defense; the latter could still go in BYU's favor because Houston's only real defensive flaw is that it allows a high frequency of free-throw attempts (238th among all D-1 teams).
Not to be outdone, Houston's offensive attack is arguably more potent than BYU's. Houston ranks 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency for the whole season and second in the Big 12 during the conference season, putting it at an elite level, however you look at it. Houston led the Big 12 in three-point field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, and it was top-three in effective field goal percentage and turnovers. All of these standings are substantially better than BYU's defense, which ranked ninth in efficiency during conference play. In the same period, it also ranked 10th or worse in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and three-point field goal percentage allowed, giving Houston a decisive advantage in most areas.
Houston had its most efficient offensive performance during the conference season when it hosted BYU in its 86-55 victory in early January. BYU has played much sharper since that date, so I like its odds of putting up a fight. Ultimately, I believe Houston will win, but the effort will require a higher point total than usual. KenPom is projecting that the final score will be 73-66, which is a score I can envision happening.
In any event, with outstanding offensive numbers for each team, I like our odds of seeing the score shoot past the betting total. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 135.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Wisconsin -1.5
- St. John's -4.5
- BYU vs. Houston - Over 135.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
