This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With most of the power conference teams taking the day off, Steve Peralta previews the Big Game in the bay as well as some MACtion that's also on tap. Here are his best bets of the day.
Akron at Ball St.
Ball State is heating up, winning six straight games and coming off a quality road win at Toledo. Ball State goes as its offense goes, which is easily the strength of the team. The Cardinals are ranked No. 79 in offensive adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, but that's only part of the story. Ball State is full of long-range shooters, making 40 percent of three-point attempts this season, the ninth-highest percentage in the country. Additionally, the Cardinals also know how to create contact when driving to the basket, recording the fourth-highest free-throw attempt rate among all D1 teams, per KenPom.
Playing on the road, Akron faces a major challenge in trying to contain Ball State's offense. Akron has only played against three opponents that rank top-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Zips lost all three games. Ball State fits that description and is playing at home, a bad combination for Akron.
Another important to consider is the status of star Akron guard Xavier Castaneda, who missed the previous game for an undisclosed reason. It's not yet apparent if he'll play in Friday's game, but the current line appears to presume he'll play. Castaneda leads the team in offensive efficiency rating (per KenPom), possession usage rate, and three-point shooting, and he was also tied for second in scoring in the Mid-American Conference before missing the last game. Akron didn't need him in its last game, playing at home to Northern Illinois, but they'll likely need him against a much better opponent on Friday, and even then he might not be enough.
Regardless of Castaneda's status, Ball State is the significantly better offensive team, playing against an opponent that has yet to record a single quality win this season. I like our odds with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Ball St. -1.5
Stanford at Cal
After 14 opportunities, California finally scored 80 points in a game this season. In their matchup on New Year's Eve, the Golden Bears made a season-high 58 percent of their field goal attempts against Colorado, including a season-high 54 percent from behind the arc. This was only Cal's second game of the season shooting above 50 percent from the field, a type of performance rarely seen by them. Colorado had played a physical and taxing game against Stanford just two nights prior, so it seems Cal's energy caught Colorado a bit off guard around the holiday. Regardless of how that game went, California has been the worst-offensive team in the Pac-12 by a wide margin and it plays at the slowest tempo in the conference to boot. The ideal 'under' team.
Stanford's offense hasn't been quite as bad as California, but it's still by far the weaker part of the team. The Cardinal rank No. 115 on offense compared to No. 58 on defense, so its defense needs to be in top form for its best chance at winning. Stanford has already played four conference games, three of them at home, and has yet to score more than 70 points against a Pac-12 opponent.
The over/under total is low, but it's still probably not low enough. These two teams played twice last season, and the total score didn't crack 110 points in either outcome. Both home teams won each matchup, with Stanford winning 57-50 and Cal winning 53-39. Neither team has shown significant improvement this season, so a similar outcome seems probable. And with a low-scoring game likely in hand, a large spread is especially alluring for a home team. I'm on the under in this one, and I'm also rolling with the home team and the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Cal +8 & Under 125.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Ball St. -1.5
- Cal +8
- Stanford at Cal - Under 125.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
If you're in Ohio where legal betting just launched, check out Ohio sports betting promos.
