This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday brings us an abbreviated college hoops slate, but thankfully we still have a few prominent teams taking the court. Here are my predictions for a couple of the games on tap.
Villanova 
at Georgetown 
Villanova has now won two of its last three games after ending January on a skid, losing five consecutive games before defeating Providence and Seton Hall over the past couple of weeks. The Wildcats got back on track thanks to a stingy defense. During the conference season, Villanova ranks third in the Big East in defensive efficiency, and it's played even better in the past two weeks. The Wildcats have held each of their last three opponents under 60 points, making it clear they're serious about righting the ship following a disastrous January.
Georgetown, in contrast, has yet to even win two conference games. The Hoyas have now lost 12 of 13 games against Big East opponents, with their only win coming by three points at home against DePaul, 68-85, which is possibly the worst team from a high-major conference this season. Either way, Georgetown has struggled equally from both sides of the court since the conference season tipped off, ranking second-worst in the Big East in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Hoyas haven't scored more than 72 points in five of their last six games, so they have their work cut out for them on Friday as they host a tough defensive team.
This is a tricky game to predict, but I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the Big East, so we should see a smaller number of possessions. Villanova ranks 338th in tempo among all D1 teams, while recording the slowest tempo in the league during conference season, giving us a team that remains true to its game plan regardless of the opponent. Georgetown, similarly, has demonstrated a similar style, ranking 231st in tempo and third-slowest in the Big East during conference play. The spread is massive, for good reason, and Georgetown hasn't given any indications to suggest it's going to put up a fight on Friday, but it is at home and this is college basketball, so anything is possible. For all these various reasons, I'm taking the under in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 139.5
New Mexico 
at San Diego State 
In this third year guiding the team, head coach Richard Pitino has the Lobos rolling. New Mexico is on track to have its best season in over a decade, and it's all thanks to an extremely balanced brand of basketball. The Lobos rank 30th in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and this has held up through conference play as well, as they also rank second among Mountain West teams in the same two categories. Moreover, the Lobos also lead the conference in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage.
San Diego State, meanwhile, boasts a slightly superior defense, although it's not nearly as balanced, ranking sixth in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency since the conference season tipped off. The biggest issue, however, aside from poor three-point shooting, is its carelessness with the ball. The Aztecs have the third-worst offensive turnover percentage in the league during conference play, and they're facing the league's best turnover defense, so there's a decent chance that New Mexico will win the turnover margin on Friday.
The Lobos won handily the first time these two teams met, 88-70, and while Friday's game will be more challenging on the road this time around, I still like their chances of keeping the game close. I'm taking the points.
Additionally, it's also worth pointing out that New Mexico pushes the pace as hard as any team in the nation, ranking seventh in adjusted tempo among all 362 D1 teams. San Diego State is also playing at a quicker pace since the conference season tipped off, ranking third in tempo in the Mountain West. Given how fast these two teams are playing, it's no surprise to see that the last game between these two teams featured 79 total possessions, the second-highest total of the season for the Aztecs. Given the playing style of each team, I'm also betting on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico +6.5 and Over 152.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Villanova at Georgetown - Under 139.5
- New Mexico +6.5
- New Mexico at San Diego State - Over 152.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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