This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
Wednesday brings us another helping of First Four action from the NCAA Tournament and more first-round games from the NIT. Coming off a 3-0 sweep on yesterday's picks, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Wednesday's college hoops slate.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Dayton 
vs. Florida Atlantic
This pick centers around the Flyers' high-flying offense and how it matches up against the Owls.
Dayton had the 52nd-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating during the season, massively higher than Florida Atlantic's defense, which ranks 199th in adjusted efficiency. The Flyers excel in just about every area aside from offensive rebounding, where it ranks 196th. This may be slightly below average for a D-1 team, but it's still a higher standing than FAU's defense, which ranks 272nd in rebounding. The Flyers have two more noteworthy edges. They're excellent at drawing contact, posting the 46th-highest free-throw attempt rate, again substantially higher than FAU, which is 192nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Dayton made 76 percent from the charity stripe, so this could be a key factor if both trends hold up. The most significant difference of all, however, appears on the perimeter. The Flyers are sharp from long-range, having made 36 percent of three-point attempts (83rd among D-1 teams), and they attempt them at a higher frequency, which is a dangerous combination for the Owls' defense because it has been torched from the perimeter all season. Florida Atlantic allowed opponents to make 37 percent from beyond the arc, nearly the worst in the nation, 336th to be exact, so this game will get ugly fast if these two trends continue.
We have a much tighter matchup at the other end of the court. Florida Atlantic's offense has the 82nd-highest adjusted offensive rating, while Dayont's defense sits at No. 129. Each side is similarly proficient in several key areas, with each side having a slight advantage in different categories. For example. the Owls' offense has the Flyers' defense beat in effective field goal percentage (76th vs. 153rd) and turnover percentage (121st vs. 134th), but Dayton's defense takes the edge in rebounding (129th vs. 157th) and free-throw attempts (121st vs. 172nd).
Dayton accrued 10 losses throughout the season but still built a pretty solid resume. The Flyers defeated Connecticut, Marquette, and VCU (on the road), giving them three impressive wins. In contrast, Florida Atlantic's two best wins were against Liberty and Oklahoma State. The Owls had nine other opportunities to earn a 'quality win,' per KenPom, and they lost all nine. Given the difference in resumes and the Flyers' extraordinary offensive abilities, I like Dayton's odds of advancing in the NIT.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dayton +1
New to the world of college basketball betting? Review our college basketball betting promos to get the best deals for new customers.
North Alabama 
at Bradley 
Bradley has the distinction of having the nation's highest three-point field goal percentage, knocking down 40 percent for the whole season. The impressive part about this number is that the Braves also attempt them at a high clip, hoisting them up at the 109th-highest rate. The Braves are also great at inside scoring, making 55 percent inside the arc, which gives them the eighth-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation when factoring in their elite perimeter attack. Bradley has the 93rd-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating, which one might expect would be higher considering their shooting skills, but its efficiency takes a dip largely due to less impressive numbers in other areas such as turnovers (192nd) and rebounding (283rd). Even still, the Braves' offense has a clear overall advantage over North Alabama. The Lions' defense is average or below average in many areas defensively, including efficiency (183rd), effective field goal percentage allowed (159th), turnover percentage (197th), and rebounding (137th). It's also noticeably weak with its interior defense, allowing opponents to make almost 52 percent of two-point attempts (215th).
North Alabama is much better at the other end of the court, where its offense posted the 89th-highest adjusted offensive rating. The Lions don't shoot the ball nearly as well as the Braves, but they make up for it in other areas. Specifically, the Lions have the best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. They also have the 72nd-highest offensive rebounding percentage, which is usually an area that would give them a big edge, but Bradley's defense ranks 90th in defensive rebounding, thereby mitigating the Lions' potential advantage. Bradley's defense is also great at forcing difficult shots, recording the 52nd-best effective field goal percentage allowed, significantly better than North Alabama's offensive ranking of 124th. The Braves don't cause many turnovers, 282nd, but they're still not bad overall, ranking 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
To summarize, Bradley has elite shooting numbers and a better defense (which is strong on the glass), while North Alabama rarely gives the ball away and tends to collective offensive boards while also being the weaker defensive team. Given the nature of each team, I like Bradley's chances of shooting its way into the next round of the NIT.
College Basketball Best Bet: Bradley -3.5
Looking for a sportsbook to get started with? Find the best college basketball betting sites and apps for 2025 March Madness.
Xavier 
vs. Texas 
You're hard-pressed to find a tighter matchup on paper. Entering Wednesday, Xavier ranks 42nd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, with Texas next door at No. 41. Additionally, five slots separate Xavier's offense (51st) and Texas' defense (56th). In comparison, seven slots separate the teams at the other end of the court, where the Longhorns' offense has the slight edge (37th vs. 44th). That said, each team still has some unique characteristics that will play a role in the outcome of Wednesday's game.
When the Musketeers have the ball, they tend to score most of their points from the perimeter and from the charity stripe. As fate would have it, these are the two weaker parts of the Longhorns' defense. Xavier draws free-throw attempts at the 60th-highest rate, while Texas is nearly the worst at fouling, ranking 319th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This is especially problematic in this matchup because Xavier made 79 percent of its foul shots, the eighth-highest mark in the nation. Similarly, the Musketeers drilled 39 percent of their three-point attempts, the sixth-highest mark among all D-1 teams, as the Longhorns allowed opponents to make over 33 percent of shots from beyond the arc, 144th in the nation. To be fair, Texas is better at guarding in the paint, holding opponents to under 48 percent, the 50th-best mark, but this might mean less if Xavier can continue getting a whistle when driving to the rim.
When the Longhorns have the ball, they employ a more balanced attack. The one area where they're noticeably below average is on the offensive glass, where they rank 190th in the nation. Xavier's defense is exceptional with securing boards, posting the 14th-highest defensive rebounding percentage, so it seems highly unlikely that Texas will see many second-chance opportunities. The other area where the Musketeers excel defensively is guarding without fouling, logging the 58th-best free-throw attempt rate during the season. This is noteworthy because the Longhorns rank 71st in free-throw attempts, so they will likely see fewer points from the charity stripe than usual if Xavier can maintain its usual tendencies. The problem for the Musketeers defensively is that they comparatively allow easier shots, ranking 167th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Longhorns rank 95th in effective field goal percentage, so it may not need many second chances if they get hot from the field.
I tend to lean towards Xavier in this matchup, thanks to its offensive skillset and how it compares to Texas. However, the Longhorns have proven time and time again that they're a tough team to put away. Instead, I prefer our odds of seeing a high-scoring game in a back-and-forth affair. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 151.5
Think your team has what it takes to win it all in March Madness? Find College Basketball National Championship Odds and other college basketball futures bets across multiple sportsbooks on RotoWire.
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Dayton +1
- Bradley -3.5
- Xavier vs. Texas - Over 151.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
