Thursday's college hoops betting slate is a bit slimmer, as most of the high-major conference teams have the night off. Nonetheless, we still have a few intriguing matchups to consider.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Bradley 
at Indiana State 
The Sycamores have been disastrous on offense so far this year. They appear adept at shooting from close range, making 57 percent of two-point attempts, but they are weak in many other key areas. Namely, Indiana State's offense ranks outside the top-240 teams in adjusted efficiency, turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, free-throw attempts and three-point FG percentage, barely making 28 percent on the year. These numbers don't bode well in any matchup, and this one is particularly problematic, as Bradley boasts the fifth-best defensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams.
The Braves, meanwhile, are a competent group offensively. Bradley ranks above the average D-1 teams in many important offensive categories, including adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate, among others. Indiana State's defense is also above average, although it seems to have at least two vulnerabilities. The Sycamores are weak on the glass (315th in defensive rebounding), and they don't cause much defensive pressure -- 209th in turnovers.
The Sycamores may get an intangible boost from playing at home, but I'd prefer our odds with the team that's better at perimeter shooting and less likely to turn the ball over. I'm going with Bradley.
College Basketball Best Bet: Bradley -3.5
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Illinois State 
at Southern Illinois 
These two teams sport nearly identical defensive efficiency ratings, so the key to this pick comes down to offense.
Illinois State has a higher efficiency rating, and it's easy to see why. It offers a balanced attack. The Redbirds have made over 56 percent of two-point attempts (70th) and over 35 percent of three-point attempts (109th), yielding the 65th-highest effective field goal percentage. They also rarely give the ball away, ranking 61st in offensive turnover percentage.
In contrast, Southern Illinois relies on a one-dimensional scoring attack. The Salukis rarely attempt three-pointers (364th in frequency), likely because they seldom make them, knocking down under 29 percent of their three-point attempts. Consequently, Southern Illinois has earned 64 percent of its total points from two-point attempts, the highest mark among all D-1 teams. This is less of an issue when facing a team with a soft interior defense, although Illinois State is holding opponents to 49 percent on two-point attempts (112th), so this isn't an ideal matchup for the Salukis.
Winning a road conference game is usually a challenge, but I'm betting Illinois State has the right approach to earn the 'W' on Thursday. I'm taking the Redbirds.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois State +2
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Temple 
at Davidson
The most significant weak link in this matchup is Temple's defense, by a mile. The Owls have one of the worst adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, ranking 314th, and it's clear why. Opposing offenses seemingly do whatever they want. Temple allows opponents to make a high proportion of attempts (273rd in effective field-goal percentage allowed) and doesn't force many mistakes (318th in defensive turnover percentage).
Davidson will likely exploit the passive defense, as it's a sharp-shooting bunch. The Wildcats have made 56 percent of their two-point attempts (75th) and 40 percent of their three-point attempts (14th), resulting in an effective field goal percentage that ranks 29th.
Temple's offense isn't bad, so it's possible it can compensate for its leaky defense, but I'm not betting on it. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Davidson -5.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Bradley -3.5
- Illinois State +2
- Davidson -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
