This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
With the first half of the Elite Eight coming up on Saturday's college hoops slate, here are my predictions for the two matchups.
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Texas Tech 
vs. Florida 
When the Red Raiders have the ball on Saturday, their elite attack will be tested by Florida's stout D with the fifth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency going up against the ninth-ranked defensive efficiency. The key to the Gators' defensive success is consistently forcing bad shots having held opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts (15th-best) and 29 from three (fifth-best) while yielding the fifth-best effective field goal percentage. These are significant numbers as - perhaps surprisingly - they don't place highly in other important defensive categories at 193rd in turnover percentage, 134th in rebounding, and 188th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Comparatively, Texas Tech's offense enters with the 37th-highest effective field goal percentage, 20th-best turnover percentage, and 52nd-highest offensive rebounding percentage. Even still, the Gators' bend-but-don't-break style has worked incredibly well.
Florida are even better when playing in the other direction with the second-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, and they'll be taking on a Red Raider squad 39th in defensive efficiency - the lowest of the remaining eight tournament sides. Texas Tech's defense isn't awful in any particular area, but it doesn't stand out anywhere. Florida's exceptional offense has it beat by a wide margin in most of the key categories, including effective field goal percentage (32nd vs. 54th), turnover percentage (58th vs. 181st), rebounding (fifth vs. 97th), and free-throw attempt rate (151st vs. 185th). We see a similar difference when breaking down field-goal percentages as Florida's attack again claims the edge in two-point FG percentage (25th vs. 59th) and three-point FG percentage (73rd vs. 81st).
We also have a clash of styles as Texas Tech often prefer to slow the game down ranking 268th in adjusted tempo while Florida prefers pushing the pace at 61st. With that in mind and considering Florida are the better offensive team and favored to win, it seems unlikely Texas Tech will want to play slowly in the second half if they need to catch up.
Looking at the bottom line, I find it hard to ignore the overall mismatch between Florida's offense and Texas Tech's defense. It's possible the Red Raiders could get hot from behind the arc and keep it close with a hot hand, though I'm not betting the final margin will be close. I'm laying the points with the Gators.
I also like our odds of seeing a high-scoring matchup. We have two top-5 offensive clubs with both attempting and making three-point shots at a high clip. There's always a chance they won't fall, but that comes with the territory.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -6.5 and Over 157
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Alabama 
vs. Duke 
The Crimson Tide put on a show in the Sweet 16 by dropping 113 points against BYU, though I might argue their opponent's mediocre defense contributed to that total. In any event, they must now play the team currently topping KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
When we stack Alabama and Duke against each other, we have an extremely tight matchup at one end of the court but a noticeable mismatch at the other. The Crimson Tide are among the very best on offense posting the fourth-highest adjusted efficiency rating in the nation. They are highly proficient in several critical areas, with the only problem being Duke's defense at fifth in adjusted efficiency that beats their opponent in many areas. Alabama ranks 54th in offensive rebounding percentage while Duke's defense is 46th in rebounding, 28th in free-throw attempt rate versus 17th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage against the best effective field goal percentage allowed. They're also incredibly strong near the rim having made 60 percent of two-point attempts, the third-highest mark overall. But once again, Duke has them beat by holding opponents to under 44 percent on two-pointers - the second-best mark.
The Blue Devils are just as elite at the other end, though the same can't be said for the Crimson Tide. Duke have the distinction of the highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 clubs, and all their underlying stats reflect that hitting almost 59 percent of two-point attempts 6th-best) and nearly 39 from three (9th-best) while yielding the nation's third-highest effective field goal percentage. Duke also lists the 50th-highest offensive rebounding percentage, giving them an advantage over Alabama's defense at 162nd in rebounding. The Blue Devils are also exceptional at protecting the ball sitting 16th in turnover percentage. In contrast, the Tide seldom causes takeaways at 352nd in turnover percentage. The other potential issue for Alabama's defense is in the paint as opponents made 49 percent of two-point attempts and 54 percent overall from two-pointers. Duke are the tallest team in the country per KenPom's average height data and outstanding from close range, making this a potential area of concern for the Tide.
It's hard to bet against a team like Alabama after what they did to BYU, yet I would argue it's more difficult to imagine them making 25 three-pointers again - especially against a team like Duke. Regardless of recency bias concerns, the season-long data suggests the Blue Devils' offense has an edge over Alabama's defense. The same claim can't be made on the other side where two elite units go head-to-head. The Tide produced eight total losses this season and dropped five of those by at least seven points. I'm betting that result will happen again on Saturday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -6.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Florida -6.5
- Texas Tech vs. Florida - Over 157
- Duke -6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
