This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament Opening Round
The Madness continues on Friday as we conclude the Round of 64 with another full day of non-stop hoops action. Here are my best bets for Friday's slate.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Colorado State 
vs. Memphis 
Both teams enter the tournament scorching hot, with Colorado State riding a 10-game win streak and Memphis on an eight-game spree. At first glance, this is a tight matchup; however, a closer look reveals a few significant differences that might tip the scale in favor of one particular side.
When the Tigers have the ball, they are relatively proficient at scoring, ranking 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, though they have a couple of extreme traits that both help and harm them. First, they're one of the sloppiest teams in the nation, ranking 306th in offensive turnover percentage. It's worth noting that a large amount of these are of the unforced variety, as they rank 299th in non-steal turnover percentage. The Rams have had success on defense despite ranking below average in turnover percentage (202nd). Colorado State has the 51st-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating, so they're already a tough team to crack, even if the opposing team isn't turning the ball over. The Rams' best defensive skill is on the glass, as they posted the 16th-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. This is critical because Memphis ranks 37th in offensive rebounding percentage, making them accustomed to getting many second-chance opportunities. But even if the Tigers get a second chance, the Rams have consistently forced difficult shots, holding opponents to under 48 percent on two-point attempts (56th) and 33 percent on three-point attempts, yielding the 68th-best effective field goal percentage allowed.
The other area where Memphis is outstanding is from long-range, where it's made 38 percent of three-point attempts, the 19th-highest mark in all of D-1. This stat catches the eye, but I would be remiss if I didn't include the fact that the Tigers seldom attempt deep shots, ranking 323rd in three-point attempt rate. This is also a convenient time to mention that Memphis guard Tyrese Hunter suffered an ankle injury during the conference tournament and missed the final round. His status for Friday's game is questionable, although recent reports suggest he's unlikely to return. Hunter was second on the team in minutes and had made 73-of-182 three-point attempts before his injury, which was the second-most attempts and the highest percentage (.401) on the team (min. 20 attempts).
The Rams are similarly successful at the other end of the court, where they recorded the 47th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating. The Tigers' defense has a slight edge in this category, ranking 40th, although they fall well below average in two crucial categories that might burn them. Memphis is among the worst on the defensive glass, ranking 301st in rebounding percentage, which could spell doom if Colorado State can take advantage because the Rams are excellent at shooting. Colorado State made almost 57 percent of its two-point attempts (26th) and nearly 37 percent of its three-point attempts (53rd), yielding the 24th-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. Memphis' defense ranks lower than CSU's offense in each of these field goal categories.
Also, for what it's worth, I would argue that Colorado State will have the best player on the court. Rams forward Nique Clifford has ascended to superstar status, earning 'MVP' honors in 20 games this season (per KenPom), the most of any player in all of D-1. Clifford also ranks seventh on KenPom's Player of the Year standings, with only Cooper Flagg, Johni Broome, Walter Clayton, Hunter Dickinson, JT Toppin, and Kam Jones ahead of him.
This game will likely come down to the final few minutes. With that in mind, I prefer the team with a better offense and one that is more likely to snag a key defensive rebound. For these reasons, I'm going with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -1.5
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North Carolina 
vs. Mississippi 
I picked the Tar Heels in their opening game against San Diego State, though I can't say I disagree with anyone's displeasure with seeing them make the final cut. All that matters now is that they're in the field and still have a talented roster despite their underachieving during the season. With a backcourt duo of fifth-year senior RJ Davis sophomore point guard Eliot Cadeau, who led the ACC in assist rate during the conference season, this team has a good shot at scoring points on any given possession, making them a tough out as long as the defense holds up.
Today's pick is all about North Carolina's dynamic offensive attack and how it stacks up against Mississippi's defense. The latter ranks 23rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, although it has a few red flags when looking under the hood. Specifically, the Rebels are lackluster on the offensive glass, ranking 234th in rebounding percentage, and have severe fouling issues, ranking 323rd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. In contrast, the Tar Heels are 201st in offensive rebounding, slightly better, and are 119th in free-throw attempt rate, substantially better. On top of that, they made 74 percent from the charity stripe, a couple of percentage points above the D-1 average.
The other problem for Mississippi's defense is that it relies on causing turnovers to get stops. It's excellent at doing it, ranking 33rd in turnover percentage, but trouble arises when it doesn't happen. The Tar Heels aren't likely to cooperate in this regard, as they protect the ball as well as any other great offensive team. They rank 41st in offensive turnover percentage and 64th in non-steal turnovers, so they're far less likely to get rattled by the Rebels' overly aggressive defense. I should also note that Ole Miss is softer inside the paint, allowing opponents to make almost 52 percent of two-point attempts (210th). On the other hand, North Carolina made nearly 55 percent from inside the arc (51st), so the Tar Heels should have some decent looks if they can avoid giving the ball to Mississippi's clawing defense.
When playing in the other direction, the Rebels have a similarly high adjusted efficiency rating, ranking 31st on offense, with the Tar Heels trailing a little bit with the 52nd-best defensive rating. Mississippi's best skill is ball security, as it boasts the second-best turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. The Tar Heels' defense ranks 309th in turnovers, which means Ole Miss should get a shot off on most possessions. The only problem is that it's mediocre at shooting. In fact, when rounding to the nearest percent, the Rebels precisely match the D-1 average marks in two-point field goals (51 percent) and three-point field goals (34 percent). At the same time, North Carolina's defense has above-average marks in the same categories, limiting opposing teams to 49 percent on two-pointers and 33 percent on three-pointers. The Tar Heels also have a massive edge on the glass, where they have the 50th-best defensive rebounding percentage, significantly better than the Rebels, who rank 313th in offensive rebounding.
This is a close matchup from afar, although I believe North Carolina's offensive abilities and how they compare to Mississippi's defense will ultimately be the deciding factor. I'm taking the Tar Heels.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina -1.5
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Oklahoma 
vs. Connecticut 
This matchup features a battle between two high-powered offensive teams.
When the Sooners have the ball on Friday, they'll face a Huskies defense with multiple issues. Off the bat, they are massively far apart in the adjusted efficiency standings: Oklahoma's offense ranks 22nd, and Connecticut's defense ranks 95th.
One weakness for UConn is that it hardly causes turnovers, ranking 291st in turnover percentage. The Sooners have outstanding shooting numbers, especially from long range, so fewer turnovers are inevitably good news for the Sooners. Oklahoma made 37 percent from beyond the arc over the season, the 35th-highest mark. This should put the Huskies on high alert, as they got burned from deep throughout the season, allowing opponents to make 35 percent of three-point attempts (257th). Lastly, the most significant issue for Connecticut is its inability to defend without fouling. The Huskies ranked near the very bottom of the nation in free-throw attempt rate, 333rd, making this a legitimate concern. This is compounded by the fact that Oklahoma makes its living from the charity stripe. The Sooners have the 29th-highest free-throw attempt rate and made 79 percent of its foul shots, the eighth-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Given these numbers, it's unsurprising that Oklahoma scores over 22 percent of its total points off free throws, the 32nd-highest mark among all D-1 teams. At the same time, UConn's opponents score 23 percent of their points from the charity stripe, the 17th-highest in the nation.
We see a similar mismatch at the other end of the court. The Huskies boast the 14th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating in D-1, and they get to take on a Sooners defense that ranks 70th in adjusted efficiency. The breakdown on this side is a bit simpler. Outside of an excellent perimeter defense, where Oklahoma holds opponents to under 31 percent, the 20th-best mark, it doesn't do anything particularly well and is, in fact, awful in multiple categories. The most apparent discrepancy lies in the paint, where UConn has made 57 percent of two-point field goals, the 16th-highest in the nation. In stark contrast, Oklahoma allowed opponents to make 55 percent of shots inside the arc, which is again near the bottom of the standings at 322nd. This is bad enough, but then we have a parallel difference on the glass, where the Huskies have the 24th-highest offensive rebounding percentage, again outstanding and again a far cry from the Sooners' defense, which ranks 277th in rebounding.
I'm picking the Huskies in my brackets; however, the spread is a different story. Considering UConn's defense, I could see Oklahoma staying in the game. Instead, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game with an abundance of points. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 147.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Colorado State -1.5
- North Carolina -1.5
- Oklahoma vs. Connecticut - Over 147.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
