This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
This week's yo-yo schedule has us back down to a modest four-game slate Wednesday, and the headlines are just as much about who won't suit up as anything else. The Warriors' barrage of key injuries boosts the value of Kevin Durant to even greater heights, but there are other potential beneficiaries of those absences to consider as well, including on the opponent side. Meanwhile, the Celtics and Heat also have prominent pieces sidelined, prompting an inordinate amount of decisions to be made despite the abbreviated ledger. Without further ado, let's tackle the task of identifying some prudent investments:
GUARDS:
Premium
Khris Middleton, MIL at ORL ($14,200): Middleton has bounced back from a late-February/early-March downturn by scoring 37.00 to 48.00 fantasy points in the last three games. He's averaging 24.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals during that stretch, while shooting a blistering 60.5 percent, including 50.0 percent from distance. He's averaged 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steal across two games against the Magic this season as well, and Orlando comes in allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency rating (22.3) to small forwards on the campaign. With a price that remains reasonable relative to recent production and a dearth of high-end options at guard on the small slate, he presents as a particularly appealing selection for either cash or tournaments.
Mid-Tier
Isaiah Thomas, LAL at GS ($12,700): It's worth noting that the Celtics' Terry Rozier ($12,800) is also certainly worth a look at this level as the projected starter at two-guard in the absence of Marcus Smart (thumb). Meanwhile, Thomas has seemed to hit his stride in the Lakers' system in March, as he's scored 30.25 to 44.50 fantasy points in five of the six contests during the month while sporting a 30.9 percent usage rate and averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute. He's averaging a robust 29.4 minutes over the last seven contests overall while putting up 16.7 shot attempts during that stretch, and his usage should be similarly elevated in what undoubtedly shapes up a fast-paced affair. Granted, the Warriors could be significantly depleted by injury Wednesday, but even that could work in Thomas' favor, as his minutes should be more or less locked in regardless of what game script plays out. Considering he's consistently outpaced his current price by a solid margin at a minimum lately, he's an attractive mid-tier option.
Affordable
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. MIA ($10,500): The likes of Tyler Johnson ($9,900), D.J. Augustin ($9,200), Brandon Jennings ($8,900), Shaun Livingston ($7,100) and Shane Larkin ($7,000) are also all worthy of consideration depending on how much savings you might need, but Bogdanovic is in a good spot in his own right. Two-guards have been a season-long Achilles' heel for the Heat, which comes in allowing 46.6 fantasy points to the position over the last five -- a tangible bump up over the 41.9 they've allowed for the season. They're also yielding the highest shooting percentage (53.0) and third-most made three-pointers (4.8) to shooting guards during that stretch. Plus, the 34.2 percent of overall scoring from three they're allowing over the last three games is not only sixth most during that span, but a significant increase over the 27.6 percent figure they've averaged on the campaign. Bogdanovic bounced back from a multi-game shooting slump in his last contest, scoring 34.50 fantasy points against the Thunder on Monday, his fourth game overall with more than 30.00 fantasy points in the last 10.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Premium
Kevin Durant, GS vs. LAL ($20,600): Granted, his ownership levels will be through the roof, but it's virtually impossible not to look at Durant as the top forward/center option Wednesday, considering the decimated state of Golden State's first unit and the fact he's eclipsed 60.00 fantasy points in the last three contests. That said, there's a slight caveat with respect to him paying off his substantial price if the Warriors fall behind the surging Lakers by a significant margin, but that's a chance worth taking. Durant sports a 36.1 percent usage rate and averages 1.51 fantasy points per minute with Stephen Curry (ankle) and Draymond Green (shoulder) – who are both confirmed out – off the floor this season. If Klay Thompson (thumb), who's been downgraded to questionable, is ultimately sidelined as well, it's also worth noting those figures rise to 41.3 percent and 1.67, respectively. Durant is also averaging 32.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 2.7 blocks and 1.3 steals across 40.3 minutes in three prior meetings with the Lakers, while Los Angeles comes in allowing the most fantasy points (40.5) to small forwards on the season.
Mid-Tier
Julius Randle, LAL at GS ($15,000): Randle won't have the pesky Green to contend with down low Wednesday, making him an even better play than usual. The fourth-year forward generated 44.75 fantasy points on the strength of a 26-point, 13-rebound double-double against the Nuggets on Tuesday, following a massive haul of 69.50 fantasy points versus the Cavs on Sunday. He's also averaging 18.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 blocks across 28.7 minutes in three games against the Warriors this season, while Golden State comes in allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (55.7) to power forwards over the last five – a drastic increase over their 36.0 season figure – along with the highest shooting percentage (60.0) over the former span. Additionally, the situation could be even more dire with Green out of the lineup, boosting Randle's already-strong value.
Affordable
Bam Adebayo, MIA at SAC ($8,400): Adebayo is slated for another run with the first unit in place of Hassan Whiteside (hip), setting him for another potentially strong return on a price that doesn't match his current role. The rookie produced 22.25 fantasy points over 24 minutes in a Monday night start against the Trail Blazers, and he's demonstrated upside north of 30 fantasy points with extended opportunity on multiple occasions this season. He'll be in a favorable position against a Kings squad that's ranked in the bottom half of the league in multiple categories against centers, and that allows the second-highest offensive efficiency rating (33.7) to the position as well.
UTILITY
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at ORL ($19,800): Antetokounmpo checks in as option 1-A to Durant at the top tier on the short slate. He's averaged 29.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 blocks across 35.5 minutes in two games against Orlando, which comes in allowing almost seven more fantasy points per game over the last 10 (42.4) to power forwards than their 35.6 season figure. Antetokounmpo had also scored over 50 fantasy points on three occasions and over 60 once in the five games prior to posting 33.00 fantasy points against the Grizzlies on Monday in what was a reduced 27-minute allotment of playing time. The Magic's league-high 49.1 points in the paint allowed per game also bode well for the Greek Freak, who's logging 15.7 points per contest in that area of the floor (58.1 percent of his scoring).
Andre Iguodala, GS vs. LAL ($8,200): Iguodala is considered probable for Wednesday's contest with his wrist injury after missing the last three games, and his potential return could hardly be more timely. As mentioned previously, the Warriors will be without both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on Wednesday, and there's now a 50/50 chance that Klay Thompson takes a seat as well. Iguodala appears slated for an expanded role under any circumstance, which should give him ample opportunity to offer a strong return on his affordable price tag. He'd been surging prior to his injury as well, scoring 24.50 to 33.75 fantasy points in four of the last five contests before going down, while the Lakers' vulnerabilities against small forwards were detailed earlier.
