This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Tuesday's seven-game ledger is shaping up as a fascinating one, as there's no shortage of playoff implications and injuries. The Rockets will be resting both James Harden and Clint Capela, while the Warriors will definitely be missing their Curry-Thompson-Durant Big Three and are 50/50 to be without Draymond Green as well. Meanwhile, there are playoff-relevant matchups in Nuggets-Raptors, Trail Blazers-Pelicans, Cavaliers-Heat, Bucks-Clippers and Pacers-Warriors. Sorting it all out is no easy feat, so let's dive right into our breakdown:
GUARDS:
Premium
Damian Lillard, POR at NO ($17,000): Lillard will be locked into what likely will be one of the more hotly contested games of the night. And, with both James Harden (rest) and Stephen Curry (ankle) out Tuesday, he's the next man up if you're spending up at guard. The Pelicans have yielded 21.7 points, 7.7 assists and 4.0 rebounds to Lillard across 37.7 minutes in three games this season, and he's now eclipsed 40 fantasy points in eight of the last 10 -- a stretch that includes three games over 50. New Orleans has been vulnerable to point guards all season and even more so lately, allowing 51.3 fantasy points to the position over the last 10. Moreover, their league-high pace of play (104.9 possessions per game, including 106.2 over the last three) should also heavily work in Lillard's favor by affording him extra opportunities to rack up production.
Mid-Tier
Eric Gordon, HOU vs. CHI ($14,800): Gordon is set for a start at shooting guard Tuesday with Harden scheduled to rest, and he'll be set up with a premium matchup to exploit. The Bulls have allowed a robust 44.0 percent success rate and 3.0 made threes per contest to two-guards on the season, with those numbers rising to 46.0 and 3.2, respectively, in the last five games. Chicago is also allowing the third-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.3), including the most (41.4) over the last three contests. Those numbers could spell trouble against Gordon, who's draining a solid 40.0 percent of his 8.8 tries from distance over the last four contests, and who's eclipsed 30 fantasy points in three straight games coming into Tuesday. Finally, it's also worth noting that Gordon sports a robust 28.6 percent usage rate without Harden and Clint Capela on the floor this season, furthering his already formidable case.
Affordable
Tyler Johnson, MIA vs. CLE ($9,400): Johnson is staring at a Tuesday matchup that could well facilitate a handsome return on his sub-$10K price, as the Cavaliers come in allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (43.4) to shooting guards on the campaign, including the third most (62.7) over the last five. They're also yielding the fourth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.1) on the season, including 34.6 percent over the last three. Johnson has the skill to exploit that weakness, as he comes into Tuesday draining a jaw-dropping 65.0 percent of his 5.0 three-point attempts in the last four contests, and he's also shooting a respectable 37.7 percent from distance on the campaign. Additionally, he's scored 25.75 to 31.25 fantasy points in four of the last seven (and no fewer than 18.00 in the other three contests), making him highly worthy of a tournament flyer in a game with significant playoff implications.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Premium
Anthony Davis, NO vs. POR ($20,100): Naturally, you're not likely to go wrong with LeBron James ($21,700) or Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19,300) above and below Davis if you're spending up, but the Pelicans' quest to hold their ground in a very competitive Western Conference playoff race should bring out the best in The Brow. He's been a virtual lock for at least 45.00 fantasy points of late, eclipsing the mark in six straight, and eight of the last nine overall. He was also outstanding in his one full game against the Trail Blazers this season (he played only five minutes before sustaining a knee injury in the first and missed the second altogether), posting 36 points, nine rebounds, two assists and two blocks across 41 minutes back on Jan. 12. Moreover, the Pelicans' aforementioned elite pace of play continues to offer Davis extra opportunities to wreak havoc, making him all the more appealing in what should be a wire-to-wire battle.
Mid-Tier
Thaddeus Young, IND at GS ($12,900): There's usually a multitude of appealing options floating around the mid-tier at each position, and Young shapes up as one of the best potential fantasy-point-per-dollar ones Tuesday. The veteran big has scored 30.00 to 48.75 fantasy points in six of his last seven games -- a stretch during which he's averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute. The Warriors will offer him a nice bump up in pace Tuesday, as well as an appealing matchup against a defense that's allowed 51.9 fantasy points to power forwards over the last 10 games, along with the third-highest shooting percentage (52.0) to the position during that span. Moreover, Golden State has been susceptible to scoring near the basket -- allowing the eighth-most points in the paint (46.8) on the season – while Young has scored 64.5 percent of his points in that area of the floor. Equally encouraging is Young's recent usage, as the 13.3 shot attempts he's putting up over the last four represent a nice spike from his 10.7 season figure.
Affordable
Noah Vonleh, CHI at HOU ($9,200): To be clear, there's no shortage of options at this level, as the likes of Al-Farouq Aminu ($11,200), Skal Labissiere (10,900), Trevor Ariza ($9,400) and Maurice Harkless ($9,300) all hold appeal as tournament plays as well. However, Vonleh checks in the least expensive of that group, and it's possible he draws another start in place of Lauri Markkanen (back) on Tuesday. Vonleh has been thriving with extended minutes, scoring 21.25 to 33.00 fantasy points in six of the last seven games -- solid-to-excellent returns on his current price. The Rockets have also been particularly vulnerable to power forwards recently, as the 55.5 fantasy points they've yielded to the position over the last five represents a significant increase from the 35.5 they've surrendered on the season.
UTILITY
C.J. McCollum, POR at NO ($13,700): McCollum is coming off his second straight game with better than 40 fantasy points, as he lit up the Thunder on Sunday for 34 actual points over 37 minutes. Lucky for him, that matchup is followed by an even juicier one, as the Pelicans have allowed the most fantasy points to two-guards on the season (45.2), including 56.5 over the last 10 games. New Orleans has also been much more vulnerable to the big bucket recently, allowing the third-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (38.1) over the last three. Meanwhile, McCollum comes in draining an impressive 41.3 percent of his 5.9 tries from distance this season and shooting a red-hot 50.0 percent on an average of 18.8 shot attempts over the last five games. With a price that hasn't bumped up appreciably despite his recent pair of stellar efforts, he represents another excellent point-for-dollar bargain.
Dennis Smith, DAL at SAC ($12,400): Smith is yet another player whose Tuesday price doesn't quite match recent production, and his matchup against a Kings squad that's had trouble defending point guards all season makes him all the more appealing. Smith has scored 38.00 and 36.25 fantasy points against the Nets and Hornets, respectively, in his last two games, while Sacramento is allowing 52.2 fantasy points to point guards over the last 10 contests. They're also yielding the highest shooting percentage (51.0) and most made threes (4.0) to the position over that span, and the highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (34.4) overall on the season. Smith has remained aggressive throughout his rookie campaign and is putting up an elevated 19.0 shot attempts, including 5.3 three-point attempts, over the last four contests.
